Curlin
 

He is probably a very nice horse. I think he will win the Ark Derby. With only two races under his belt as of right now, I am kind of hoping they give this guy a break and maybe think of the Preakness. Probably won't happen.

Why exactly would he need a break after only three starts?
He had 6 weeks in between his debut and the Rebel, and a month in between the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.
If that schedule is too taxing for him to make the Derby......he isn't much of a horse.

It's not a matter of space in between races, it's a matter of too much, too soon. The Derby is a whole different animal than the Preakness, so I agree that the Derby might be a lot to ask of this horse, even if he does indeed win tomorrow.

The derby is a lot to ask, that's why its the derby. Rapidly developing horses have won on occasion. If Curlins wins at OP he deserves a shot..

Such as......???

None in my lifetime.

Unless you count the reincarnation of the ex-claimer from Lukas....who had like 15 races.

I cant even remember a horse who ran in the Derby with only 3 races let alone won.

Wouldn't that make them undefeated?

Well sure, if the connections don't feel the horse is ready for the Derby, they shouldn't run him there.
The original poster mentioned giving the horse a "break" which I took to mean literally a break, which made no sense to me at all.
If Curlin wins tomorrow (and comes out of it healthy) I don't see how anyone could blame them for sending him in the Derby. It would be awfully hard to have an undefeated winner of a major "prep" race.....and then skip the Derby.

Who?

Never mind. Meant horses with three starts going into the Derby.

Do you know any?

Did Valhol run in the Derby? Didn't he run very few times prior to it?

I must be tired....this thread is confusing me....

None I know of. Of course the problem is as we keep going into the Derby with less and less horses prepared for it then it keeps making it easier for the horses to win with 3 career starts or two 3yo preps or 8 week layoffs.

Showing Up last year. . .

I meant like horses that suddenly started getting better in their sophomore seasonn. Charismatic is the example I was thinking of. Real Quiet had not won as a sophomore. Dust Commander was a claimer at 2, then all of a sudden won Blue Grass and Ky Derby, he didnt win any other major stakes.
Going back aways Count Turf was nothing going into the derby and I think Dark Star was too.


What about War Emblem? He hadnt won any stakes races at 2, he wins an ALW, then IL derby, then Ky Derby. Isnt this the sort of thing w/ Curlin: maiden...Rebel stakes..???

SO read what I said. I didnt say "had only 3 races." I said "rapidly developing". Dont put words in my mouth:mad:

He's still only had three races, and I think that's the crux of the issue.

Barbaro had just two races over dirt in his career coming into last years Derby.

And had only five races in him.

win or lose today i dont think he has much of a shot in the derby, and im confused how he is getting bet down to the favorite in the derby future pool.... he has been green in both starts, he has been very impressive but in the derby facing 20 other horses i dont give him much of a shot, not with only 3 races going in