One eye-sore after another
 

I can't think of any other way to describe the five 3-year-old stakes, and 3 triple crown preps we saw today.

Scat Daddy's even starting to look like a very viable alternative if the two stakes next week disappoint.

oh no...surely not! altho he does look better at this point then cobalt blue....

my thoughts are that even nobiz is starting to look viable, if just barely.

i think this is going to be street sense's race to win or lose, in almost the same degree we had last year with barbaro.

with the pletcher horses looking less and less viable, i wouldnt now be surprised to see r2r have her plans changed. probably wont happen, but who knows.

the one horse i'm still excited about, at least for the males, is deadly dealer.

Cobalt Blue got a dream trip, through very slow fractions in his SA Stake win, and didn't even earn a big figure in the process. Today was his day to be exposed when things didn't go his way.

Cowtown Cat isn't much....and neither is Tiago.

I felt Nobiz Like Shobiz was absolutely the horse you'd want coming out of the Fountain of Youth, and thought he might move up with the aid of blinkers, I'm really not so sure he did. He was down inside, and up on a realistic enough pace....and was far from impressive in victory.

From a handicappers prospective, Hard Spun's 4th place finish in the Southwest Stakes---was probably a better individual performance than any performance turned in by any 3-year-old today---and I know that sounds crazy---but, if you put these performances under the microscope, and you have the needed handicapping skills to make that assessment---I am confident that is the case.

Yeah you're right. Two major preps left and we STILL HAVENT SEEN THE KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER...:eek:

You know what? Ever year at this times it seems someone has to pontificate about how bad this field sucks. And most of the time you are right. But not this year.

I dont know what it is maybe you people are so freaked out because you didnt have the trifecta at HAW or the pick 4 at SA or Curlin in derby futures pool or whatever that you cant see the forest for the trees....

THe truth is this is probably the deepest derby field in years. This years crop may not be GREAT but it's way deep in VERY GOOD.

Street Sense.
No Biz.
Scat Daddy
Cowtown
Great Hunter
King Roxy
Curlin

Does this sound to you like Eddington, Limehouse, Tapit, Pollard's Vision?

Throw in maybe a Deadly Dealer, Maybe Hard Spun, maybe Chelokee, maybe Circular Quay. Now there's 8 or 9 horses that are real possibilities....

NO? Still no winnner? What do you think the odds line is going to be on derby day? Street Sense 7-1; No Biz 8-1, Cowtown 9-1....What? You think it's going to be Street Sense 3-2; No Biz 5-2?

Still think you havent seen the winner? STill think you spotted one we all missed? THen congratulations, cause then you're going to cash Circular Quay at 25-1; Hard Spun at 30-1; or Tiago at 50-1. Or maybe Ketchikan at 80-1, or maybe Bird Bird at 100-1.

Still think you dont see a winner?

Well there's more there's still:
Green Monkey at 350-1!:p

Yes, there's still time for the Green Monkey to show up. The Derby trial is what 7 days before the derby? There's lots of time.

well, yeah, kinda does.

You are making a reference to the '04 crop I see. Which, while certainly not stellar, included horses such as Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Rock Hard Ten, and Birdstone among others. Yes, while far from historically strong, the '04 crop was better and deeper than this one.

Last years crop recieved positive reviews from me for several months leading into the Derby. This years has recieved almost the opposite, and deservingly so.

With the exception of Street Sense and Curlin---those other horses are pretty weak from a speed figure standpoint---and don't hold your breath waiting for them to develop any.

Scat Daddy has always had a chance in my book.

Oh sorry, I apologize. I didnt realize they failed your review. That settles it, I guess.

No mention of Any Given Sat. I do not think he ran that bad yesterday. I thought Pletcher brought him back too soon and he was three wide the whole race. Everyone gave up on Bluegrass Cat last year, because he threw in a clunker. Then he runs second to Barbaro in the derby. AGS ran well yesterday for a horse that ran a huge race 3 weeks ago and was 3 wide the whole way and now he is getting no mention at all as a contender. Do not know if he can beat Great Hunter and Street Sense, but I do not think he is an automatic toss either.

Could come 2nd(ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, this animal can show up and lose a stretch battle.)He won't win.He can't win a stretch battle.It is kind of a priority(to be able to win a fight.)

It does for me.

AGS lost a stretch battle by a head bob. A nose. He didn't exactly blink when looked in the eye. I like his chances better for the derby now with an extra week than I did going in off 3 weeks from the Bluegrass. I don't believe for a minute that he was primed for the win yesterday. No Biz might break out in the Derby but I won't be betting on him.

I wouldn't sweat it.

The next time this guy offers an opinion before the race will be the first.

TWICE HE GOT BEAT,BECAUSE HE COULDN'T WIN A FIGHT.You want to see him do it a 3rd time? I wouldn't be surprised if Pletcher revives the horse for the Derby,and he loses another close fight.He does not have anything extra to call on against a tough horse in a fight.Yes,he got beat by good ones.So f'n what.Good ones line up again.So,he will at best get 2nd.Horses that lose stretch battles are not good win plays against the same damn quality he got beat by.He is pretty small anyways(comparatively.)Have you not noticed his little Arabian head? That's yet another reason he can't win a photo.Many things against this one.Use him 2nd-4th.I agree that Pletcher will get him rejuvenated enough to contend for the minor placings.

3rd time might be the charm. Small head loses a photo..c'mon.

I see DrugS's selections all the time and for what it's worth they are beyond terrific. Not only have I spent hours discussing races with him, but I have read many thorough pre-race discussions by him, and his opinion is first rate. I realize this means you have to take my word for it, and that's fine, but for whatever it's worth he's one of the finest handicappers I have ever met. Plus, his post race disections here are as good as they come, and they aren't jaded by betting results.

But even worse, you have set yourself up for being told by DrugS that you're just jealous that he's better looking than you. Don't believe him.

your joking right?

What makes you think that?

He did proclaim a month or so back that Rags to Riches would not win the Derby.

well he gave me christmas kid 3 hours before the race was run yesterday.....not like he is on here talking about his monster pick 4 score or anything, which...........well you dont want to know and i dont need to redboard for someone else