Handicapping horses who drop in class
 

We all know that one of the biggest class drops is when a horse goes from MSW to MC. However, I have a hard time handicapping when he horse is dropping from a MSW at Turf Paradise to a MC at Santa Anita (for example). Basically, is a MSW at a lesser track the same as a MC at a track like Santa Anita?

How do you people view this type of drop? Thanks in advance.

Mark

Its a pretty lateral move from MSW/MOC at TP, to a maiden 32 In So Cal.

the example you are giving, is about the same in my opinion... no real drop from msw at turf paradise to mc at santa anita

Thanks everyone

Really?

I would consider maiden special at Turf Paradise to 32k Maiden Claiming at Santa Anita a jump in class. While the 32k maiden claimers aren't that tough at SA, those MSWs at TuP go for a purse of about 9k normally and they're not good races at all.

The universal MSW to MCl drop being a drop does not equate when you compare some different circuits.

NT

Yeah it's really hard when they jump track to track. But as mentioned above some are easier to spot than other's. I hate betting a shipper when it comes to a different track as a maiden. One thing is horses run better at some tracks and others they don't. So with most maidens you don't get that stat as you do with older horses say 4 or 5 yearolds. Many times in the sport you'll hear he's a horse for the course. Some horses have all of thier wins at one track and won't hit the board at other's. just something I've learned over the years.

In Florida a MSW at Calder is about a MdCl40 at Gulfstream. Thus far that is about where they seem to fit. Turf paradise to SA seems like a bigger class differential to me but I don't follow them as closely.

I think this is one of those spots where accurate speed figures can be invaluable. If you can get par Beyers (or other) for the class groupings, you really have a good chance to seperate shippers.

Ive followed the racing out there for a long time, those MOC 30s at TP are equal to the Maiden 32s in SOcal. Of course there are other variables, whos shipping in/out, but as a general rule of thumb I would say are lateral moves. Infact Ive seen a lot of SoCal Maiden 32s sold privately to AZ trainers and get drummed in their MOC races at TP.