Picking tracks
 

Quick question from a newbie: I've read that it may be best to concentrate your handicapping efforts on one or two tracks. There is no local track here, so I have to pick one out-of-state. How do you determine which tracks you want to focus on? What kind of criteria do you use to choose one track over another?

How much are you going to bet? If it is a decent amount, you have to avoid the smaller tracks. If you are betting $20 a race or less, I'd recommend starting at the smaller tracks. The money is easier, in my opinion.

Two ways of thinking. The 'classier tracks' GP, NY, SA have the best horses (partly because of bigger purses) who to me run more to form than the lower level claimers at the 'secondary tracks' however they also draw the sharpest players. It's just a matter of preference. But by concentrating on one or two circuits you have the advantage of learning training patterns and track bias' unique to that circuit as well as other particulars.

I live in the Chicago area yet prefer to play NY over Arlington or Hawthorne but my real game is Jai Alai. LOL

You prefer NY over Arlington? I find this amazing. For as much you have been to Arlington, I would think you know the nuances of Arlington as much as I do. I always do well at Arlington, just piss it away at Hollywood/Belmont/Saratoga/Del Mar/Calder throughout the day

(whatever Internet spell check guy)

Nuances?

I agree. I like Arlington, and tend to do pretty darn well there, and then get sucked into playing other tracks to kill my winnings.

Must learn better this year!

Mug,

I'd make that decision based on where there are jocks/trainers/horses who you already have determnined are your 'favorites' as a fan... If you like Johnny V, Prado, etc., Shug McGaughey and Barclay Tagg, you follow NYRA-Gulfstream... If you like Baffert and Garrett Gomez say, you follow California.. Along those lines. If you have a small base of fan interest already, you'll know right away "where" you want to focus your attention as a fledgling bettor...

everything will change this year, it is pointless to even try, only playing turf races here this year and maybe some all's on the poly in exotics, hoping they run some sequences with two turf races in them as those will be the only ones I am playing. They usually run the 7th and 9th on the lawn or the 5th and 7th so I should be ok

I know. I can't wait. From a betting perspective it's going to be incredible. I'm the total polar opposite of you on this one.

Can't wait to identify how the track is playing and what kinds of race styles are doing well. Prices everywhere.

You know my angle at Arl (involves a teller) so 'cappin is pointless. I do enjoy the park though as you know. LOL

if the track proves to be like Keenland it will be a dream as all the speed players (most) will get gobbled up in the stretch

What track can you get the most exposure from? I know all the tracks are out of state but on your cable system, is there a track that has a nightly or weekly recap show, with the days races and best races from the week on it? For instance in the NY area on fox sports NY, every night there is a recap show at about 5:30 with the days races on it. It's a great way to watch a lot of races in a short time and learn the levels, trainers, jocks etc.... If you have TVG they normally replay all the days races from the tracks that they cover in the morning. Or you could suscribe to a race replay site on line. I personally do not like watching races on the computer, but sometimes that is the only way.

so if you play more then two tracks thats to much. in my area i have fair grounds, louisiana downs, evangeline downs, delta downs not the best horses around but you can apply the same principles to them as sau belmont gulfstream and so on.

Well when you say play only 1 or 2 tracks-

Are you handicapping the night before, or right up to post time of a given race? I do all my handicapping (except for contests that bar this) 5 and 10 minutes before a given race's post time.But I also bet more than1 track. If I'm sitting at a table with 6 big screens with 6 different tracks, then more than likely at 1 point I'll bet at least a race froim each one.

But with that being said, I like the smaller tracks. I'm a longshot player, and I think you're more likely to hit bombs at those tracks than at NY, Florida, Cali, etc. I especially like the night tracks. Mountaineer, Chuck-town,Evangeline, etc etc etc. Because you get a lot of solid wide-open fields.

It's a losing scenario to try to bet every track running, unless you handicapped the night before and picked your spots. I am talking from expierence here. Every time you look up,"Hey 3 minutes until the 3rd at Tampa" then "5 minutes until Delaware's 5th". How much handicapping can you do in 4 minutes? Always miss something. Now I pick the two tracks I feel I do the best at. A NY track and either Gulfstream or Arlington.
You are right about the night tracks, but the only problem are some of those 4 furlong races and some of those 2 turn 6 furlong races.

I think that what you've read is excellent, and probably first-hand from experience, advice. And I would take that advice. NY, Kentucky, or SoCal--all large circuits would be my first choice. And no, I don't think low-level claiming events are good for newbs. The lure of longshots is far too great, and you end up in the red from the git-go. It often takes a longtime, seasoned, astute handicapper with decades of experience to make money in those ranks.

The other thing I would be SURE to do in choosing my track--or two. Study charts-results of that track EVERYDAY. Print them out. Learn everything you can about its players, the jocks, the trainers, horses, etc. Watching race replays is good. Studying charts, when a newbie, can be more helpful though. Learn results on paper, then begin the business of learning how to watch races with the idea of learning what to watch for.

Math,
I did mis-speak a little bit. If it's like 2-3 minutes to post, I'm not gonna be in a rush to bet every track in front of me. But! I do look from 5-10 minutes to post. Why? You get a good indiciation of what the odds of the horse are gonna be. As opposed to morning line odds that can be way off and odds at 20 minutes to post that can fluctuate sverely in the minutes counting down to post.

Your point about missing all of the necessary info if you don't give yourself enough time to look is a good point, but my argument to that is- if I only have 5 minutes to look, it also forces me to make up my mind if I'm gonna bet the race. A lot of times, especially in wide-open races, I'll be in a conflict of who I wanna include in my bets. Who do I wanna put in? Who do I wanna leave out? If post time is coming up. It forces me to choose. This has been both a profitable and and costly decision for me. But that way I'm forced to choose instead of locking myself in a 20 minute headache trying to decide who I'm betting on.

Still, that is an enormous amount of information to compute in a 5-8 minute range. I would rather concentrate on less tracks and be able to compute the information more thoroughly, then do one of those rush job (which I have done many times) and then end up losing to an AE horse that I did not even know was in the race. I just think in a wide open race, I think you are being forced to make a hasty decision.

Maybe it's also how much you look at then. Without trying to dig myself in a hole here, I feel I can most of the time look at most/all of the relevant factors in a DRF, spening maybe 30 seconds on each horse. If it's a 12 horse field and there's like 5 minutes left, it probably means I'm not bettin it. But... seriously I do a skim job of all the horses first, putting an x by the ones I like, a question mark by the the ones I'm considering, and leaving it blank for the ones I don't like. Then I look at the corresponding odds, and give every horse a more thorough look.

Agree or disagree, my style works. I get paid plenty. I'm sure your style works too. Different strokes for different folks.

One thing that can't be deinied in my humble opinion is this -

Lots of money is bet at the second tier tracks from people that don't have a clue

I live 15 minutes from Beulah Park and am a regular their once a week, used to attend more:o Watch the money in these races (pools). You will see lots of cash hit a certain horse right when the race gets up, usually 19 or 18 mtp. I can promise you, having been a teller at this track and a "regular" for a while that what happens is the barn crew gets in the house and they unload. They will stroll to the window, throw down some $20's and chill with a beer.

That is why I enjoy betting Beulah, when I am in attendance. I love to watch the barn cats stroll to the window, play it off and then see the horses. I AM TELLING YOU - it is unreal how much you can make if ya just watch the horses in the post parade at one of these 2nd tracks. After I read an article by Donna Brothers last year about what to look for in a horse in the post parade, and applied it to my hometown track, I am on fire.

No offense to these hard working folks, but alot of the barn help at my home track don't fire on 8 cylinders, ya feel what I am saying. So, when they make their way to the windows, they are betting like their is no doubt their pony is the winner.

At Beulah, and I would assume several other 2nd tier tracks, it is ALL ABOUT the Trainer - Jock angle. Also, Beualh has a CRAZY TRACK BIAS 99% of the time that I have FINALLY figured out. A little before the first race you acan watch the track crew working the track and almost figure it out. Outside is good, rail is hot etc.. Love it. But, ya gotta be their to get it.

I'm well aware that closers were the way to go at Keeneland's inaugural meet on Polytrack. That might hold true in the upcoming spring meeting too. But as long as I've been following Keeneland, which has been about nine years, I've noticed that the spring meeting was the one which rail and/or front speed was dominate. The fall meeting usually was pretty fair.

I'd keep an open mind early in the meet since the "conventional wisdom" is speed is not good. The surface is new, and not much is known about it except that some third rate tracks in the UK have it and Michael Dickinson trains his horses over the surface.