3/30-4/1 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 3
 

2012 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3

(Prog. No., Horse, Pool 3 M/L, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 Odds)

1. Alpha, 20-1, 18-1, 19-1
2. Bodemeister, 12-1, 29-1, 3-2(f)
3. Creative Cause, 10-1, 17-1, 17-1
4. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
5. Dullahan, 30-1, 26-1, 40-1
6. El Padrino, 12-1, 12-1, 16-1

7. Gemologist, 20-1, 23-1, 22-1
8. Hansen, 6-1, 9-1, 26-1
9. Howe Great, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
10. I’ll Have Another, 20-1, 22-1, 29-1
11. Liaison, 30-1, 39-1, 56-1
12. Mark Valeski, 30-1, 38-1, 3-2(f)

13. Midnight Transfer, 50-1, 73-1, 67-1
14. My Adonis, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
15. News Pending, 50-1, 45-1, 3-2(f)
16. *-On Fire Baby, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
17. Optimize, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
18. Prospective, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)

19. Sabercat, 50-1, 30-1, 34-1
20. Secret Circle, 15-1, 37-1, 3-2(f)
21. Take Charge Indy, 50-1, 38-1, 42-1
22. Union Rags, 3-1, 4-1, 7-1
23. Went the Day Well, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f)
24. Mutuel field (all others), 6-1, 3-1, 3-2

If take charge indy runs a well beaten second or third and gets in derby he won't be a tick over 20to1 with that jockey. 50to1 seems crazy. I could care less if he wins I'm locked into my 42to1. If he runs second or wins the fl derby he will be around 8or10to1 derby day.

1 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin 20 21
2 Bodemeister Bob Baffert 12 22
3 Creative Cause Mike Harrington 10 8
4 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen 15 20
5 Dullahan Dale Romans 30 23
6 El Padrino Todd Pletcher 12 24

7 Gemologist Todd Pletcher 20 12
8 Hansen Michael Maker 6 8
9 Howe Great H. Motion 30 57
10 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill 20 21
11 Liaison Bob Baffert 30 49
12 Mark Valeski J. Jones 30 34

13 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines 50 80
14 My Adonis Kelly Breen 50 73
15 News Pending Dale Romans 50 99
16 On Fire Baby Gary Hartlage 50 80
17 Optimizer D. Lukas 50 22
18 Prospective Mark Casse 50 42

19 Sabercat Steven Asmussen 50 45
20 Secret Circle Bob Baffert 15 30
21 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne 50 15
22 Union Rags Michael Matz 3 9/2
23 Went the Day Well H. Motion 30 19
24 All Other 3YO Unknown Trainer 6 6

Bodemeister, at 22/1, was probably the best value on there.

Agreed. . .

Very possible you get better odds on Derby day for the Florida Derby duds El Padrino and Union Rags. Pretty bad bet when they've had their final prep already.

No doubt, unless Alpha runs off the screen this weekend as I am hoping.

I'll Have Another at 22-1 could be great value if he wins the SA Derby this weekend. I guess My Adonis at 73-1 is OK.

9-2 on Union Rags is insane. Even if Hansen, Gemologist and Creative Cause all lose this weekend, I still can't see how he would be lower than 4-1 on Derby day.

I think Prospective is getting ready to move way up and 42-1 won't be in the ballpark after his next race.

Alpha wont get close enough to Gemologist to smell his a..

unless he pulls an El Padrino

Not feeling that way personally. I don't think his one turn mile "race" (workout?) was really a great setup for this weekend. I don't really care for all the time off Alpha has had either but racing wide early and passing horses on the turn hopefully gave him a little more bottom despite how easy it looked.
Guess we will know soon.

Close enough to smell his breath! Damn good race, hope they both draw well in Kentucky.