5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day
145th KENTUCKY DERBY
1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 20-1 2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 20-1 3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 20-1 4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 50-1 5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 6-1 6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 20-1 7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 10-1 8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 10-1 9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 30-1 10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Lanerie) 30-1 11. Haikal (McLaughlin/Maragh) 30-1 13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 15-1 14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1 15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 50-1 16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 5-1 17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 6-1 18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 30-1 19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 30-1 20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 30-1 21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 30-1 |
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2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY
ON 1-Vekoma 2-Maximum Security 3-War of Will 4-Grat Magician 5-Spinoff NEAR 6-Bodexpress 7-Improbable 8-Tax 9-Roadster 10-By My Standards STALK 11-Game Winner 12-Long Range Toddy 13-Tacitus 14-Code of Honor 15-Cutting Humor OFF 16-Win Win Win 17-Plus Que Parfait 18-Haikel 19-Country House 20-Master Fencer |
Poor Mark Casse. Setback in the Louisiana Derby and now drawing the 1 post.
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Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!
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1-War of Will (War Front), Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
2-Tax (Arch), Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1 3-By My Standards (Goldencents), Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1 4-Gray Magician (Graydar), Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1 5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1 6-Vekoma (Candy Ride), George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1 7-Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1 8-Tacitus (Tapit) , William Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1 9-Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry), Brandan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1 10-Cutting Humor (First Samurai), Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 30-1 11-Haikal (Daaher), Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1 12-Omaha Beach (War Front), Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1 13-Code of Honor (Noble Mission), Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1 14-Win Win Win (Hat Trick), Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1 15-Master Fencer (Just a Way), Koichi Tsunoda, 50-1 16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1 17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1 18-Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1 19-Spinoff (Hard Spun), Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1 20-Country House (Lookin At Lucky), William Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1 |
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I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.
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Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either. To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace. Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front? |
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Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected. |
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In the Street Sense, Improbable was 6th early and despite progressing to two turns after that race, showed less speed in subsequent starts. I guess if you want to say that he prefers Churchill Downs to other tracks to the point that he has more early speed I guess that's a possibility, however remote. Why is War of Will out of the early pace with the rail draw? |
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On Improbable, fair enough. Not sure if he’ll be at the front or not but I like him to be close enough. |
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At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not. Quote:
However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby. Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017. |
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The way Roadster popped the gate in his work on 4/20 makes me think Bob has a plan. We'll see how far he can go.
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