4/12-14 (OP): AR Derby, Apple Blossom (G1's) ~ Racing Festival
 

FRIDAY



SATURDAY

Quite a pot for Tikhvin Flew. He should have been in the Bay Shore if they wanted to be ambitious.

With the ML for Improbable set at 8-5 and Omaha Beach set at 2-1, might be some nice value if you like a horse other than those two.

Why, you think those two are underlays?

At those odds, no. But there is a lot of hype around Improbable and Omaha Beach...so...I’m imagining a situation where people get wrapped up in those two, we see them at even money and something-to-5, and maybe the odds on another horse like Long Range Toddy or Country House rise enough where it’s worth it to take a chance on them.

On top of that, both favorites like to be close to the pace, and it seems like it might be crowded up front or perhaps they stalk well but get boxed in on the rail a bit. So I could see the race setting up for a horse other than those two.

Well what odds do you have LRT at if those hold up?

Not much talk about the Apple Blossom. Wow what a race!

SUNDAY

Chris and Dave in the handicap. 20-1 ml, should handle the slop.

That whole field seems like it can handle the slop.
Is is going to be sloppy?

well its raining right now and there is a 100% chance of precipitation, they will be lucky if the severe weather doesn't shut them down during the course of the day...so yes, its going to be sloppy

https://www.wunderground.com/weather...prings-village

Santana’s horse looks live in the derby at a big price.

I remember Lone Sailor galloping in the mud at Saratoga. I like him. It is a good race though, anyone could win.

Remember Zenyatta winning the Apple Blossom when Rachel didn't show?

I'm using 1 2 4 8

Hoping Mitole jogs today. I think he can win the Met Mile.

He’s the wildcard for me. I’ll be backing Country House once again...hopefully it finally pays off. I’m out on Omaha Beach. Have it ranked:

#1 Improbable
#8 Country House
#7 Galilean
#11 Long Range Toddy
#5 Laughing Fox

He’ll win. My biggest issue is figuring out how to maximize winnings off of him.

I ended all bets with 8,11 while acknowledging that Improbable is the horse to beat.

I like that. Good luck.