9/19: Belmont Race 1 Lonesome Glory Steeplechase
 

The Lonesome Glory handicap returns as the final NYRA steeplechase of the year around 4 turns and 10 fences with a 5/8 mile run after the last fence. This is a very competitive race.

Racing over 2 miles, 1 pound in weight is approximately 1 length so #9 Winston C is going to have to run the best race of his life picking up 6 pounds off his last race, now carrying 160 and spotting the field 2 – 18 pounds. The lightweights have an advantage with #3 Surprising Soul and #8 Belisarius getting the biggest benefit. #8 Belisarius also possesses the best flat track speed.

#1 Scorpiancer has the highest rating at 154, with #9 Winston C and #4 Bedrock at 153. Next are #2 Moscato and #6 Redicean at 144, followed by #3 Surprising Soul at 139. The rest are 130 or less.

Race shape indicates the pace should be honest with #7 All the Way Jose going to the front and #3 Surprising Soul tracking the front runner. #1 Scorpiancer will be tracking the front runners and saving ground with #6 Redicean joining #1 Scorpiancer. After the first lap, #7 All the Way Jose will fade and #3 Surprising Soul will inherit the lead and try to open up on the field the last time down the backstretch. #3 Surprising Soul doesn’t have another gear, he just grinds away, so the only chance to hold off the flat track runners after the last fence is to open a big lead on the backstretch. All the closers will be battling for position over the final fences with #2 Moscato and #9 Winston C emerging with strong runs.

#5 Hinterland(2nd) does his best running on flat tracks and has a good chance to land underneath in the tris and supers.

This a tough race with several contenders that can win.

A) #3 Surprising Soul(Won $37.20), #8 Belisarius, #2 Moscato, #9 Winston C(4th)

B) #1 Scorpiancer, #6 Redicean

Good Luck at the races!

Nice work

Thanks! Very Happy for trainer Ricky Hendricks and his mom owner Wendy Hendricks.

Nailed the race shape...just didn't think Surprising Soul would go to the front early and jockey Ross Gheraghty made the right decision on the first turn to give Surprising Soul his head as he continued to run easy all the way.

I'll be at Shawan Downs in Hunt Valley, MD on Saturday 9/28, Virginia Fall in Middleburg, VA Saturday 10/12, then I'll post a write up of selections for Far Hills NJ on Saturday 10/19 that has simulcast betting.

Well done!!