Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
(Post 1005055)
Nick would you be so kind to share your big hits and your bet in the classic with us.
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Sure. I had a horrible day Friday and had just over 4.2k of the original 7.5k going into Saturday. Didn't cash one ticket on the card, and was really not even close. The strategy for Saturday, which was determined by my partners in the endeavor and I, was to try and hit something before the races where we had to play $900 per race. That really couldn't be tried with the first three being so unappealing from a wagering perspective.
So, my approach in the Juv Fillies was to play the race to collapse on the front end. The ability to bet outside of one's normal bankroll allows you to cautiously cover more bases. I structured a trifecta play in the Juv Fillies using Top Decile, Majestic Presence and Wonder Gal that allowed two of them to finish in the money and still cash. So, Take Charge Brandi holding on was OK as long as two of that trio finished 2nd and 3rd. With Wonder Gal winning the photo, we had $2 on the trifecta.
After a minor hit in the FM Turf, we were in position to maximize a strong opinion, which was that Judy the Beauty was strictly the horse to beat and that longshots were viable for underneath slots. One of those was Better Lucky, who filled out the exacta, and the all spot in 3rd facilitated having Thank You Marylou. We ended up with $11 on the trifecta.
The Mile was a race we planned on passing, but being in 4th overall going into that race, something had to be tried. We had agreed beforehand that the Euros held a huge advantage here and were unfazed by their lack of success up to that point. Thus, a trifecta was structured that included Karakontie, Anodin, Veda, Mustajeeb and Trade Storm. When three of that group of five made up the trifecta, it gave us $4 on it.
My opinion in the Classic was bad. I loved Tonalist, felt like Bayern would not be able to stay, and wanted to try and use longshots underneath. That obviously did not come to fruition and we ended up losing about 15% of what we had going into that race. We could have sat on our hands there and tried to leapfrog by simply standing pat. That goes against my grain, so we made a play. While it did not work out and we actually lost two spots in the standings, it did not in any way take away from the entire experience of the day.
What contests like the BCBC remind you of is the superiority of live money tournaments. I have had success in $2 WP formats, but have far too often been left frustrated when a seemingly hopeless longshot that someone would have never actually bet galloped home and allowed those "stabbers" to take full advantage. Nothing against their approach, but it seldom feels like "handicapping." Having to back up your opinions with wagers levels the playing field, at least for me.
I look forward to the NHC and hopefully one of the DT contingent doing well!
