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-   -   6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66331)

Kasept 06-03-2019 06:08 PM

6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's
 
BELMONT STAKES

1. Joevia (Sacco/Lezcano) 30-1
2. Everfast (Romans/Saez) 12-1
3. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 8-1
4. Tax (Gargan/I. Ortiz) 15-1
5. Bourbon War (Hennig/Smith) 12-1
6. Spinoff (Pletcher/Castellano) 15-1
7. Sir Winston (Casse/Rosario) 12-1
8. Intrepid Heart (Pletcher/Velazquez) 10-1
9. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 2-1
10. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 9-5

OVERNIGHT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20190608D

Kasept 06-04-2019 06:12 PM




Kasept 06-04-2019 06:12 PM




Dahoss 06-08-2019 03:52 PM

You’d be hard pressed to give two worse rides in a row than Mike Smith just did. Scary bad.

cakes44 06-08-2019 03:52 PM

Mike Smith could have definitely got him out.

Dahoss 06-08-2019 04:41 PM

Another Smith gem

Alabama Stakes 06-08-2019 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1127568)
Another Smith gem

You know what’s gonna happen here, ride of the year.

Dahoss 06-08-2019 05:49 PM

Nice main track these last few days. Not sure why or how but unacceptable as a bettor. Kind of taints what should have been a fantastic day.

Alabama Stakes 06-08-2019 05:57 PM

Good call on the winner, mr hoss.

Dahoss 06-08-2019 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1127583)
Good call on the winner, mr hoss.

I didn’t like the winner at all.

Alabama Stakes 06-08-2019 06:04 PM

Thought Spinoff was Winston, must be spinnin too many joints of the ice cream cake, which I rate at 5 ⭐️

Rupert Pupkin 06-08-2019 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1127580)
Nice main track these last few days. Not sure why or how but unacceptable as a bettor. Kind of taints what should have been a fantastic day.

I agree. You would think a business would want to make their customers happy. I bet if Belmont did a poll and asked their customers if they want them to juice up the track and make it lightening fast, I bet 90% of people would say no. So why do they do it? It is mind-boggling. Nobody likes it. Why do they do something that their customers don't like? There is no upside either, only downside. What is really shocking is that they are so clueless that they probably don't know that people don't like it. I wonder who the guy is that is in charge who makes these absurd decisions.

As handicappers, we can pick up a bias pretty quickly if we're paying attention. So I don't feel like I have any big disadvantage if there is a bias. But by the same token, I don't like it. It's just one extra thing to worry about and an extra factor to focus on. I know that tracks are not going to be the exact same every day. There are factors that can change the track that are out of their control. That's part of the game. I'm fine with that. But for them to go out of their way to intentionally change the track and make it lightening fast is inexcusable.

blackthroatedwind 06-08-2019 09:55 PM

How is a track being "lightning fast" inexcusable? How does that affect the results?

Asking for a friend.

Rupert Pupkin 06-08-2019 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1127592)
How is a track being "lightning fast" inexcusable? How does that affect the results?

Asking for a friend.

It is inexcusable for them to intentionally mess with the track to make it faster. People play Belmont every day and know how the track plays. Sure it can change a little bit from day to day. There isn't much they can do about that. Horse players accept that.

But why would management go out of their way to intentionally make the track lightening fast (which causes a speed bias)? Nobody wants them to do that. It makes the track play totally differently from the way it normally plays. How could they not know that their customers don't want them to do that? Do they think people want to have to totally change the way they handicap?

Alabama Stakes 06-08-2019 11:16 PM

Playing the bias 101
 
It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.

freddymo 06-09-2019 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 1127593)
It is inexcusable for them to intentionally mess with the track to make it faster. People play Belmont every day and know how the track plays. Sure it can change a little bit from day to day. There isn't much they can do about that. Horse players accept that.

But why would management go out of their way to intentionally make the track lightening fast (which causes a speed bias)? Nobody wants them to do that. It makes the track play totally differently from the way it normally plays. How could they not know that their customers don't want them to do that? Do they think people want to have to totally change the way they handicap?

Who cares if it's slow or fast? You care there is a significant bias, for two reasons, the first is being it's hard to toss logical horses into plays if their style doesn't fit the bias, and the second is its more work because now you have to weight their effort the next time they run which is tricky.

PeteMugg 06-09-2019 07:59 AM

Tacitus
 
I’d say I’m more upset Tacitus ran about two miles in a 1 1/2 mile race. Sir Winston ran the route exactly as I hoped the ten would. Four wide all the way around isn’t much of a ride.

Dahoss 06-09-2019 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1127594)
It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.

Sad stuff from a pathetic guy.

Alabama Stakes 06-09-2019 10:27 AM

Don’t be such a baby

blackthroatedwind 06-09-2019 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1127594)
It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.

Even someone as clueless as you should know that picking races well in advance on tracks that end up with extreme biases is a very dicey proposition. However, it's even more disgraceful when, given everyone here knows you look at every pick I make, I have been literally crushing it over the past month ( and frankly been strong for even longer than that ). But, two days where, and you know this too, I repeatedly said I was putting very likely and logical horses second to try to find pricier alternatives, none of my "top selections" won erases all else. Good for you. You got me. You are also the worst kind of person....someone who was actually a friend of mine outside of cyberspace, who became so jealous of my relatively microscopic supposed success, that you decided to lash out on the internet ( ..and, yeah, there were those infamous Phish tickets too ). Honestly, it doesn't get any lower than you.


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