Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles
Animal Kingdom - Preakness at about 1/20th of the price he was yesterday.
Nehro - Belmont; Preakness would be 4th race in 8 weeks, he's very well suited to the Belmont Mucho Macho Man - Preakness; seems like he's just figuring things out Shackleford - Matt Winn on Foster day or Iowa Derby Master of Hounds - Ran much better than I thought he would; Gomez said the connections are thinking about the Belmont. Santiva - Belmont Brilliant Speed - A turf race somewhere Dialed In - There are five million reasons why he will be in the Preakness Pants on Fire - Preakness; why the hell not, maybe he can be wildly overbet again Twice the Appeal - Ohio Derby Soldat - Hill Prince Stay Thirsty - A N2X at Belmont Derby Kitten - Colonial Turf Cup/Lone Star Derby Decisive Moment - Memorial Day Handicap at Calder Archarcharch - A speedy and healthy recovery Midnight Interlude - Matt Winn on Foster Day Twinspired - A N2X at Arlington Watch Me Go - The shelf until Tampa next year Comma to the Top - Came out injured, sprinting/turf at Del Mar The horses that have been mentioned for the Preakness that did not run yesterday include Flashpoint, Sway Away, and Dance City (who has worked twice at CD in the last 2 wks). If anyone notices any other horse and wants to add them have at it. |
For the Preakness, what about Astrology, jj's lucky train, bandbox, anthonys cross or Mr Commons?
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According to DRF...
Horses who did not run in the Derby, but are expected for the Preakness, include Astrology, Concealed Identity, Dance City, Flashpoint, King Congie, Norman Asbjornson, Prime Cut, and Sway Away, and possibly Mr. Commons. PROSPECTIVE PREAKNESS FIELD Committed: 1. Animal Kingdom 2. Dialed In 3. Shackleford 4. Astrology 5. Concealed Idenity 6. Dance City 7. Flashpoint 8. King Congie 9. Norman Asbjornson 10. Sway Away 11. Midnight Interlude 12. Casper's Touch Possible Mr. Commons Santiva Saratoga Red Doubtful Nehro Mucho Macho Man |
I hope MMM is pointed for the Belmont instead of running in the Preakness. (Chances of that are slim to none)
I think he will be very tough at 12f. He is a clone of Summer Bird. |
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Re: comment on Pants On Fire :tro: :tro: :tro: |
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Guesses on Animal Kingdom's odds? 8/5? 2-1?
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I'd say that's close to right. Motion is a locally based guy, so that should have something of a "Borel" effect on the odds, IMO.
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Almost every year, a horse who ran big in defeat in the Derby goes to the Preakness, gets hammered at the windows, and runs 7th. I'm thinking that will be Mucho Macho Man this year.
I can see Dialed In getting heavy support because of the slow pace in the Derby, even though it didn't seem to bother AK. Animal Kingdom 9-5 Dialed In 5-2 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 |
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2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1 2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1 2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1 2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1 2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1 2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1 2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1 2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1 2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1 Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex). There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort. Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have: Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price. All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1. |
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