My Derby Top 10
 

Tell me who you think I’m dead wrong about.

1. Messier
2. Zandon
3. Epicenter
4. Smile Happy
5. Mo Donegal
6. Simplification
7. Taiba
8. White Abarrio
9. Pioneer of Medina
10. Charge It

No Cyberknife?

Hah. I can’t say that any of the Arkansas Derby horses impressed me much. Of the Cox horses, I definitely prefer Zozos. I think Zozos is talented but not really a huge fan of his for this race.

I'm going to add a few more thoughts about some horses here. This is really to help me find clarity but feel free to weigh in.

Epicenter
Maybe it's my naturally contrarian nature but I am questioning this horse. When I watched his most recent wins in real time, I was impressed. But I look back at the Louisiana Derby now and wonder how good the competition was. Granted, he handled both Smile Happy and Zandon in the Risen Star but both of those horses may have needed a race as they were both coming off of layoffs. The Louisiana Derby top rivals were Zozos (out of Munnings/Papa's Forest) who doesn't seem particularly well bred for distance and Pioneer of Medina, who feels like Pletcher's clear 3rd best horse of this group.

Epicenter just feels like a horse that you don't want to use at short odds.

Smile Happy / Zandon
I'm going to include these two together because I don't think there is that much that separates them and my thought process for both of them is the same. I feel they are both ready to run huge races. Obviously that's no surprise with Zandon but I'd be shocked if Smile Happy ends up near 20/1. I think his Blue Grass performance was way better than he's been given credit for.

Taiba / Messier
I technically have both of these horses in one of my futures "Field" bets. They're both super talented. I strongly prefer Messier to Taiba and will probably toss Taiba from all of my wagers as there are just too many red flags for me. Messier is my top choice still. I don't see that changing.

Simplification / White Abarrio / Charge it
I may use all three of these horses in my exotic wagers. Maybe I'm a fool but the Florida Derby / Holy Bull winner is probably my least favorite of these three. I just feel like he got ideal setups in both of those races whereas Simplification had trouble at the start in the Holy Bull and learned in the Florida Derby that perhaps being on the lead isn't his best running style. Charge It, for what it's worth, looks to be a very talented horse and I'm banking on him putting things together and peaking at the right time.

Mo Donegal
He sort of goes hand-in-hand with the above three since he ran in the Holy Bull against two of them. There is some skepticism about the Wood Memorial runners but I really just think that Early Voting was a bit underrated for a while but I feel that race will hold together as time goes on. I don't really love the post position or Mo Donegal's running style but I'm going to use him underneath.

And then I'll probably throw some other horses that intrigue me in -- Tawny Port, Crown Pride, maybe...gasp...Cyberknife.

I should add, this is all in anticipation of making a trifecta bet, which is my preferred single race bet for the Derby.

So it'll probably look something like:

Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy keyed over Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy, Simplification, Charge It, Mo Donegal, Tawny Port, Cyberknife.

Anyway, just my thoughts. If history is any indication, bet Epicenter and Taiba.

I can't wait to see the Cuban Sandwich bet.

I just started to dissect this. Classic causeway gate to wire!!! :D. Epicenter is the horse to beat and no way I leave him out of tri. I see no faults in the horse. Charge It could be sitting on a nice one and is a quality win bet based on value. Messier is the other I think can win as those three should be sitting perfect off the front runners. Those three are my musts in tri box as I can't see none of them not in top three. I'm not sure what to think on Taiba but leaning towards a toss. Zandon and Mo Donegal both need to be closer than projected as there are quality horses that will be sitting better and will be hard to pass. I'm still looking for those derby tri fillers that come every year. Good luck.

I'm a big believer in Timeform figures. Epicenter has had 6 weeks so obviously he could improve plenty from the LA Derby figure but his top two numbers are 113/118. This puts him on par with horses like Zandon (108/119) and Smile Happy (108/118) and behind horses like Mo Donegal (121), Messier (127/123), and Taiba (125). That alone has me hesitant about him.

But I also feel like he got an easy trip in the Risen Star with his main rivals not at their peak and then got another easy trip in the Louisiana Derby with his main rivals huge question marks as far as their overall abilities. His ability to rate was impressive and that race rightfully put him at the top of the Derby contender list...but I'm skeptical given the speed figures and my doubts about him getting another easy trip. Maybe I should be more skeptical of Zandon. I don't know. He could easily run into trouble and not finish well. Epicenter is probably more likely than Zandon to be able to work out a good trip for himself.

There is still a lot of time. I may change my mind another 50 times before Saturday.

I don't love Epicenter, but he's the most accomplished and the step forward he took in the LA Derby can't really be ignored. SHowing the new dimension and being able to rate so kindly and then kick when given the cue was very impressive.

In regards to the price, I think he and Zandon are going to be very similar prices. I wouldn't be shocked if Zandon is the favorite actually. I don't think he was done any favors in the draw though. Sort of forces Rosario's hand a little to establish position early to avoid getting shuffled. With Leparoux on Classic Causeway, if I was Asmussen, I'd tell Rosario to ask a bit out of the gate and if they end up on the lead, be happy with it.

I'm not betting Epicenter, but he will be an "A" on any multi race bet I make.

I've landed on Cyberknife for a win bet. I think he still has upside and was really impressed with his race in the Arkansas Derby. Having Cox as his trainer doesn't hurt and he is tractable. WHile I despise trainer or jockey speak, I remember hearing Geroux talk before the Arkansas Derby about how Cyberknife has done things in the morning no other horse he has been on have done, which seemed like a pretty glowing endorsement. Again, take that for what it's worth, which is probably nothing. He's been getting very good marks in the morning the last few weeks and I think if he can behave in the stretch he's going to be a handful.

To me after that Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy, CHarge It, Simplification, Barber Road and Zozos would not surprise me for 2nd.

I understand the timeform figures and some people love them. I think they are a good tool as with beyer figures (epicenter 102) but I don't make them a deciding factor I use them more to look for trends and eliminate horses. I like my derby horses closer to pace but everyone has different strategy. Thats what makes this race fun.

I am coming around on Cyberknife a bit. I keep thinking how Mandaloun was training leading up to the Derby and he put a great race in. Cyberknife sort of has that feel to me. On the flip side, I think I’m completely out on Zozos. I just can’t get past his pedigree, even if he was able to go 1 3/16 in Louisiana, I just don’t see the pace playing out that way. Tawny Port interests me a bit though as they wheeled him back in two weeks and he did not disappoint.

No love for Messier? I haven’t decided if I think he can effectively rate. If he gets involved in the early pace with Summer is Tomorrow and Classic Causeway and anyone else, I don’t see him winning and that probably sets up one of the closers if they can make out a good trip.

Fair enough.

Some times I knock a horse for having relatively clean trips but horses that consistently do that often have a reason for that. In Epicenter’s case, he has good early speed and can generally put himself in good position to work out a clean trip. So maybe I shouldn’t be so dismissive of him. All his figures are trending up as well…so there is a lot to like about him.

I may be talking myself into him, at least for place/show.

No chance

Messier is the one horse I have no idea what to do with. I don't like how he got run down last time, but at the same time, he missed a race so being a little short can be expected.

I'll probably include him on a multi race ticket but feel like he's either going to win or run 18th.

Ya I think that last race was needed for the horse.

I don't think there is anyone as fast as Forbidden Kingdom in this race and I thought the way he finished was pretty impressive given the pace battle he was in. That said, what are the chances that John Velazquez "wins" the Derby three years in a row with the runner up in the Santa Anita Derby?

That's part of my thought process. Same goes for Smile Happy, imo. Which is why I'm so high on both Messier and Smile Happy.

I don't think battle is the word I'd use. He stalked Forbidden Kingdom comfortably and went by him pretty easily around the turn.

Taiba was only another 2 lengths back. So if he was able to sit close and outfinish Messier after just a 6F race, how is Messier going to beat him this time? And I don't like Taiba at all.

Like I said...I have no idea what to make of Messier. :zz:

Top Five:
Taiba
Messier
Epicenter
White Abarrio
Zandon

Messier reminds me of Perfect Drift a bit. He seems to enjoy running with the herd and will hang when given the opportunity. With that said, I personally can't see him actually winning the race... Who knows though? :confused:

I keep coming back to Smile Happy. Can't help but think he is coming into this race in eerily similar fashion to his grandsire. Super Saver lost both of his starts to begin his three year old campaign just like Smile Happy. He drew the four post, Smile Happy the five, and won the Derby. I think Smile Happy projects to get a similar trip to what Super Saver got. Not sure if Smile Happy will stick to the rail all the way around but he certainly should be saving ground into that first turn. He'll be a little further back than Super Saver but with what looks like quite a few horses that want to be on or near the front, that might be the place to be.

Probably (definitely) over thinking this but I don't want anyone that will be too close to the lead. Epicenter certainly can win but I don't want him at 4-1. I don't want Zandon or Mo Donegal either. Too much traffic to trust a deep closer at single digit odds in a race like this.

Cyberknife is the other horse I'm talking myself into as the week goes on...was going to toss him completely now I have him as a B.

This is one of the more exciting Derbies in recent memory so I'm sure I'll change my mind a few more times before Saturday.

I’m looking at Cyberknife a little closer today.

In the race where he broke his maiden on 12/26, he stumbled slightly at the start, went 3 wide the whole race, made a move around the turn and held off a late surge from the runner up. No clue how good the 2nd place finisher is as he took a few months off and came back to finish 3rd in a 7f race at Keeneland in the slop and then 2nd in a 10f race at Churchill in the slop. BUT Cyberknife’s final time was .71 seconds slower than Epicenter in the Gun Runner that same day at Fair Grounds.

Then if you look at his OC race on Risen Star day, he finished 8.5f in 1:42.53. That would have been good enough for 3rd place in the Mineshaft (on final time alone) and I think would have put him pretty close to Epicenter in the Risen Star. Granted, that’s not really a perfect way to look at it, but it does make me wonder if he’s been underrated for a while now. Those two races seem to stack up nicely against one of the Derby favorites.

The Arkansas Derby he showed that he could continue to improve. He was close to a pretty fast pace and seemed to unnecessarily make an early move on the backstretch (it gave him position going into the stretch so maybe not unnecessary but probably not ideal) and was still able to stay clear in the stretch.

He’s working very well. He’s not my top choice but he is definitely intriguing. Note his top races before the Arkansas Derby were with lasix so that’s one thing to keep in mind.