6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's
 

BELMONT STAKES

1. Joevia (Sacco/Lezcano) 30-1
2. Everfast (Romans/Saez) 12-1
3. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 8-1
4. Tax (Gargan/I. Ortiz) 15-1
5. Bourbon War (Hennig/Smith) 12-1
6. Spinoff (Pletcher/Castellano) 15-1
7. Sir Winston (Casse/Rosario) 12-1
8. Intrepid Heart (Pletcher/Velazquez) 10-1
9. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 2-1
10. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 9-5

OVERNIGHT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20190608D

You’d be hard pressed to give two worse rides in a row than Mike Smith just did. Scary bad.

Mike Smith could have definitely got him out.

Another Smith gem

You know what’s gonna happen here, ride of the year.

Nice main track these last few days. Not sure why or how but unacceptable as a bettor. Kind of taints what should have been a fantastic day.

Good call on the winner, mr hoss.

I didn’t like the winner at all.

Thought Spinoff was Winston, must be spinnin too many joints of the ice cream cake, which I rate at 5 ⭐️

I agree. You would think a business would want to make their customers happy. I bet if Belmont did a poll and asked their customers if they want them to juice up the track and make it lightening fast, I bet 90% of people would say no. So why do they do it? It is mind-boggling. Nobody likes it. Why do they do something that their customers don't like? There is no upside either, only downside. What is really shocking is that they are so clueless that they probably don't know that people don't like it. I wonder who the guy is that is in charge who makes these absurd decisions.

As handicappers, we can pick up a bias pretty quickly if we're paying attention. So I don't feel like I have any big disadvantage if there is a bias. But by the same token, I don't like it. It's just one extra thing to worry about and an extra factor to focus on. I know that tracks are not going to be the exact same every day. There are factors that can change the track that are out of their control. That's part of the game. I'm fine with that. But for them to go out of their way to intentionally change the track and make it lightening fast is inexcusable.

How is a track being "lightning fast" inexcusable? How does that affect the results?

Asking for a friend.

It is inexcusable for them to intentionally mess with the track to make it faster. People play Belmont every day and know how the track plays. Sure it can change a little bit from day to day. There isn't much they can do about that. Horse players accept that.

But why would management go out of their way to intentionally make the track lightening fast (which causes a speed bias)? Nobody wants them to do that. It makes the track play totally differently from the way it normally plays. How could they not know that their customers don't want them to do that? Do they think people want to have to totally change the way they handicap?

Playing the bias 101
 

It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.

Who cares if it's slow or fast? You care there is a significant bias, for two reasons, the first is being it's hard to toss logical horses into plays if their style doesn't fit the bias, and the second is its more work because now you have to weight their effort the next time they run which is tricky.

Tacitus
 

I’d say I’m more upset Tacitus ran about two miles in a 1 1/2 mile race. Sir Winston ran the route exactly as I hoped the ten would. Four wide all the way around isn’t much of a ride.

Sad stuff from a pathetic guy.

Don’t be such a baby

Even someone as clueless as you should know that picking races well in advance on tracks that end up with extreme biases is a very dicey proposition. However, it's even more disgraceful when, given everyone here knows you look at every pick I make, I have been literally crushing it over the past month ( and frankly been strong for even longer than that ). But, two days where, and you know this too, I repeatedly said I was putting very likely and logical horses second to try to find pricier alternatives, none of my "top selections" won erases all else. Good for you. You got me. You are also the worst kind of person....someone who was actually a friend of mine outside of cyberspace, who became so jealous of my relatively microscopic supposed success, that you decided to lash out on the internet ( ..and, yeah, there were those infamous Phish tickets too ). Honestly, it doesn't get any lower than you.

The track has played quickly at quite a few times during the meet. We'll have to agree to disagree that this has any relevance, in isolation, whatsoever. Now, an inside bias, something that has also happened with at least some frequency during the meet ( feel free to look at my Track Trends which are posted under the "racing" subhead on nyra.com ) does have an affect on races.

You are delusional.
Coming from you, it’s a compliment. And I am not jealous of you or anyone. I don’t root against or wish bad things on you or anyone else. Try admitting when you’re wrong, and you might feel better about yourself.

The past is not the lowest form of conversation. It’s awesome. The condescending way that you talk to people is really the lowest.

When they make the track so fast at Belmont, there is almost always a big speed bias. That is my main point.

This is not the first time this has happened. And Belmont is not the only track who speeds up the track on big days. But the point is that when they do speed the track up on big days, it usually creates a big speed bias. I don't think that customers like that. I don't like it. Do you like it? I think most people would prefer that they leave the track alone and let it play the way it usually plays.

Two different situations. It's OK to admit it.

Everyone wants a fair surface. If you think the superintendent, who is considered by many to be outstanding, wants a bias surface you couldn't be more wrong. There is no way in the world he wakes up and says to himself, let's make a golden rail today.

Rupert, there wasn’t a big speed bias. There was a big rail bias.

I don't think he wants there to be a speed bias. I think he was told to make the track really fast. On these really big days, for whatever reason, they like the track to be really fast. The result is usually a speed bias.

What is the other situation you are referring to? I am specifically talking about the situation where track management purposely goes out of their way to make the track really fast on a big day (producing a speed bias).

Safe surface priority one

Working with horseman to find a surface a majority want priority two

Taking a call from "they" to speed the track up is a fantasy ESPECIALLY this day and age of hypersensitivity to track conditions and horse fatalities.

BTW who do you think made the call Yo Glenn scrape the surface we want fast times for TV?

Somebody obviously made the call. Do you think it's just a coincidence that the track is lightening fast on days like this? I highly doubt the trackman just decides to take it upon himself to speed up the track on these big days.

But there wasn’t a speed bias. The rail was golden. That’s not the same as a speed bias. You could close yesterday. But the longer you were glued to the rail, the better you did.

Somebody made the call? Did KYRIM steal your login? Please stop. You're embarrassing yourself. You don't even know the difference between a rail bias and a speed bias.

Yeah, you are right. It's just a coincidence that the track always seems to be lightening fast on these big days. I guess it just gets that way on its own.

I think there was totally a speed bias both Friday and Saturday. There may have been a rail bias too. I don't focus on rail biases or outside biases because they are too hard to determine conclusively. It's not too hard to figure out if there's a speed bias. Rail biases are harder to determine conclusively, at least for me.

The King of Comedy is such a good movie. It really does not deserve this.

A speed bias doesn't mean you can't close. It just means it's much tougher to close. If there is a suicidal pace, someone will probably close. That doesn't mean there's not a speed bias.

I will take your word for it that there was a rail bias. It's not something I focus on.

Watchmaker thought there was a speed bias too. You better give him a call and tell him that he doesn't know what he's talking about. You still didn't explain how the track magically gets so lightening fast on big days. I've got to hear this.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/48281-in...t-s-main-track

You weren’t aware of the inside bias but want to educate me on what a speed bias is. Tremendous. Cherry on top is using Watchmaker as proof.

Don’t change ever.

You're totally contradicting yourself. An inside bias will automatically create a speed bias. Any horse that gets a clear lead will be on the rail. A horse with a clear lead is not going to be out in the 4 path. So the horse on the lead is going to have the rail. Many of the come-from-behinders are going to be rallying wide. So an inside bias is going to favor speed horses. That is automatic. You can't have an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

Are you related to Dilanesp from PaceAdvantage? He’s the only other person I can think of that would rather cut their head off than admit they are wrong.