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-   -   5/19 (PIM): Preakness Day (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64350)

Kasept 05-16-2018 06:44 PM

5/19 (PIM): Preakness Day
 







helicopter11 05-16-2018 08:49 PM

Turf sprints are the future.
and
Two 3 year old stakes dirt route races back to back is a brilliant move!

richard burch 05-16-2018 11:02 PM

Bing Bang Bong!

Superfecta: $1

7 / 1,5 / 1,5,2,4,8 / ALL = $15

LAST YEAR PAID $1,862

PHARAOHS YEAR PAID $1,906

tywizard 05-17-2018 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109620)
Bing Bang Bong!

Superfecta: $1

7 / 1,5 / 1,5,2,4,8 / ALL = $15

LAST YEAR PAID $1,862

PHARAOHS YEAR PAID $1,906

If your bet wins it’s impossible that it pays anywhere near the two examples you provide.

In 2015 the second longest shot on the board finished second and the second betting choice was off the board.

Last year the winner was 13-1 and derby winner off the board.

I’m not criticizing your approach but want you to have realistic expectations.

moses 05-17-2018 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard (Post 1109625)
If your bet wins it’s impossible that it pays anywhere near the two examples you provide.

In 2015 the second longest shot on the board finished second and the second betting choice was off the board.

Last year the winner was 13-1 and derby winner off the board.

I’m not criticizing your approach but want you to have realistic expectations.

Maybe I’m doing my math wrong. Isn’t that more than $15?

cakes44 05-17-2018 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1109628)
Maybe I’m doing my math wrong. Isn’t that more than $15?

Absolutely. It's $40.

asudevil 05-17-2018 04:48 PM

Question
 
Is the late pick 4 on Preakness day a guaranteed 1M?

casp0555 05-17-2018 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 1109644)
Is the late pick 4 on Preakness day a guaranteed 1M?

I think its $2 million... copied from the Brisnet program
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $150,000. Maryland Sprint S.. THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By free subscription. $1,500 to pass the entry box. Free to start, with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Weights: Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of $70,000 twice in 2018 allowed 2 lbs.; $70,000 once in 2018, 4 lbs.; $60,000 once in 2018, 6 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations Closed Tuesday, May 8, 2018 with 36 nominations. (04:05PM) (9)
Wager Types: EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 10-11) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12) $2,000,000 GUARANTEE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 10-11-12-13) / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5

asudevil 05-17-2018 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 1109645)
I think its $2 million... copied from the Brisnet program
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $150,000. Maryland Sprint S.. THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By free subscription. $1,500 to pass the entry box. Free to start, with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Weights: Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of $70,000 twice in 2018 allowed 2 lbs.; $70,000 once in 2018, 4 lbs.; $60,000 once in 2018, 6 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations Closed Tuesday, May 8, 2018 with 36 nominations. (04:05PM) (9)
Wager Types: EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 10-11) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12) $2,000,000 GUARANTEE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 10-11-12-13) / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5

Thx!!

robfla 05-17-2018 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1109631)
Absolutely. It's $40.


Further muddying the picture...last year, the $1 Superfecta paid: $8,162.80. NOT $1862..( minor details )

richard burch 05-17-2018 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla (Post 1109648)
Further muddying the picture...last year, the $1 Superfecta paid: $8,162.80. NOT $1862..( minor details )


even better!...and I don't care if its forty bucks for that prize....

2017....8162
2016...317
2015...1906
2014...174 lowest payout is + $134
2013...1817
2012...425
2011...3016

and on and on and on.....could there be a S'fecta in the last 20 years in the Preakness that paid less than $40? I don't have time for that search.

I don't see how it's a bad bet and I am betting it and I will win!

richard burch 05-17-2018 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1109631)
Absolutely. It's $40.

My bad...I cant fix it now...its in Gods hands.

moses 05-17-2018 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109653)
show me your math please.

For a $1 Superfecta:

7 / 1 / 2 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 4 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 5 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 8 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 1 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 2 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 4 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 8 / ALL = $5

TOTAL OF BETS = $40

moses 05-17-2018 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109652)
even better!...and I don't care if its forty bucks for that prize....

2017....8162
2016...317
2015...1906
2014...174 lowest payout is + $134
2013...1817
2012...425
2011...3016

and on and on and on.....could there be a S'fecta in the last 20 years in the Preakness that paid less than $40? I don't have time for that search.

I don't see how it's a bad bet and I am betting it and I will win!

I’ll be making some superfectas as well. Hopefully one of the big ones comes out.

moses 05-17-2018 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109653)
My bad...I cant fix it now...its in Gods hands.

Haha. No biggie. I’m always messing up my math on my bets. Luckily I normally figure it out before I hit the window. Or these days, TVG.

Dunbar 05-18-2018 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109652)

I don't see how it's a bad bet and I am betting it and I will win!

I'm not suggesting that it's a bad bet, but...There are 40 ways for you to win and 1,640 ways for you to lose.

RHT2004 05-18-2018 07:15 PM

Great thread

richard burch 05-18-2018 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1109658)
I'm not suggesting that it's a bad bet, but...There are 40 ways for you to win and 1,640 ways for you to lose.



HA!!! Odds Schmodds...doesn't scare me.

Dunbar 05-19-2018 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1109735)
HA!!! Odds Schmodds...doesn't scare me.

I think Han Solo said it better:

https://tenor.com/view/han-solo-neve...rs-gif-4901664

cakes44 05-19-2018 10:10 AM

Pimlico is going to destroy Gulfstream’s record for liberal use of the term “0 MTP” today!


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