Derby Trail Forums - 12/31: Aqueduct ($94k 'Must Pay' C/O)

Bit of a maddening beat at Aqueduct Sunday when live to 2 horses for a P6 conso and 4 runners for sizeable P4's thanks to the multi ticket approach. Though AE-draw in Silver Day (7-1) got by 6-1 Money in Motion and 37-1 Classic R&B to quash the P4 opportunity, the fact was driven home that the more elaborate ticket structuring puts you in best position for scores. A win by Classic R&B specifically was worth $3,619. If unaware, DRF Ticketmaker makes it simple to build your multi plays: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

The sequence was stood on its' ear early when implausible Go West Marie ($25) won the first leg and widespread single A.P. Cino failed in the second. A.P. Cino's loss is another example of how the multi ticket approach keeps you in the hunt longer and more often as Photon was on 20% of the plays and helped get the investment in position for at least a conso. Despite the P4/P6 misses, the day was bouyed along by Modern Child who was nicely piloted by Rajiv Maragh for a $38 tote bump.

Only one horse was live for the P6 in the nightcap and the Chatterpaul winner wasn't it, so a must-pay P6 opportunity results on this New Year's Eve card. There's also a similar forced distribution at Laurel in their P5. Hope everyone has had a good 2013 and enjoyed the excellent year of racing to which we were treated. From a balance sheet perspective, I lost several thousand this year but take solace in the fact that the Del Mar P6 DQ out of $23k+ turns this recap into a gloatfest. As Damon Runyon said, 'all horseplayers die broke', but as long as you're north of the loam, you're live in the next race...

Best of luck to everyone today and warm wishes for a 2014 filled with health, happiness, love and good fortune.

Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$94k Must Pay P6 C/O starts here..

Not 100% convinced that favored Sun and Moon (2-1) is reliable and if it's not her or returning Sustainable (5-2), this race could get messy fast. Aqua Regia gets first Lasix after losing any chance at start of debut. Tizarocket showed more speed in last and subsequently fired 3 straight bullets on 5 day intervals..

Most Likely: #2 Sun and Moon 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sustainable 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #7 Aqua Regia 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tizarocket 6-1 4th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Unless a short rest regression saps Moments Notiz, he appears tough to beat (A). Consistent inner track performer Frazil, Linda Rice's other player Quick Money and Island Sunset SCR'D on the barn switch to Jacobson are contenders (B's). 10-1 Head Heart Hoof (Entered for 1/1/14) and 12-1 Exley merit a glance (C's)..

Most Likely: #11 Moments Notiz 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #7 Quick Money 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Head Heart Hoof 10-1 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Forged (half to MSW sprinter Comedero) and American Creed exit the 12/7 MDN heat that produced Groupthink & Uncle Sigh in a photo. Uncle Sigh then smoked in second start last week. Frost Jordan moves inside after wide-ish trip debut. Mark Twain has a terrific worktab for 5/2-0-1 at meet Leo O'Brien and was sold for nearly 3x the average price for a Noonmark yearling. All Over Me is out of $174k earner Leawood who was better on grass but an OK main track sprinter. Slippery Cannizzo won first out with River Dancer and Sol the Dancer earlier this year..

Most Likely: #1 Frost Jordan 3-1 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #3 Forged 7-2 10th
Best Value: #8 Mark Twain 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 American Creed 4-1 5th

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Sidearm, Geaux Mets SCR'D and Sandcat mixed it up to noses and necks 3 weeks ago and also crossed paths with impressive Samraat, (as did Eye Luv Lulu in his debut). Tricky element in this set is 5.5f distance, a configuration at which Double Gold, Sol the Freud and Sandcat all broke their maidens. Don't be put off by Eye Luv Lulu winning v. MCLM/$50k as that was open company and a good equivalent to NY-MSW's. Sing the Dream (20-1) may not be a win candidate, but could boost your tri or super. Very good race..

Best Value: #6 Eye Luv Lulu 7-2 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #3 Sol the Freud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sandcat 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Sing the Dream 20-1 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fortify 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Snake Pit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cease 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Hackleton 30-1 7th

9th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #2 Petrocelli 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Star of New York 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Tommy 7-2 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)
5 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

6 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 5 with 5 - $8.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 2 - $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 2 - $8.00

A's with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 7,8 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 3,9 with 5 - $16.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $11,354.00 (6OF6)
17 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 7 - $8.00

Total: $152.00

<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $1.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $6.00
3 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $6.00
4 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $12.00 $1.50 Pick 4 (1/6/9/5) Paid $915.00
5 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 7 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 7 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 10 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 1,4 with 7 with 5 - $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 3,10 with 5 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 2 - $2.00

Total: $65.00

Good luck!
Steve