Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)
 

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 2 stake (on the dirt) are 21 for 132 (16%) with an ROI of +33%.

Avg Odds: 20.17
Avg Odds winners: 7.37
Avg finish: 4.36

Highest priced winners:

Harvey Wallbanger (30-1)
Liora (27-1)
By My Standards (23-1)

Most recent winners:

Nadal
Venetian Harbor

Horses going from MSW to G2 Rachel Alexander/Risen Star today:

Impeccable Style (12-1)

Farmington Road (8-1)
Ready to Roll (20-1)

Modernist (8-1)(won at 12-1)
Major Fed (10-1) (2nd at 9-1) (Exacta $114)
Mr Big News (20-1)
Truculent (20-1)

Good luck today!

Cheers,

Otis

Bill Mott is especially dangerous with this move. Modernist is his 3rd MSW to G2 winner in the past year out of 7 attempts with +$44.20 in profit on $2 win bets.

The other winners:

Tacitus (Tampa Bay Derby at 9-1)
Lake Avenue (Demoiselle at 4-1)

The other four:

Country House (2nd in Risen Star at 7-1)
Hidden Scroll (4th in FOY at 6/5)
Frank's Rockette (2nd in Adirondack at 4/5)
Forza di Oro (8th in Remsen at 6-1)

Nice insight Otis. Best part about Mott doing it seems to be the price. Baffert often does this and you never get good odds on the horse.

Thanks, moses.

Baffert is 2 for 11 over this same period. The two winners being short-priced Nadal and Thousand Words. Return on $2 win bets for Baffert horses are negative ($14.00)

The only other trainers who have pulled this off more than once since 1/1/2018 are:

R. Brisset (2 for 3 with a return of +$32.20)
J. Hollendorfer (2 for 2, +$22.40)
S. Callaghan (2 for 5, +1.80)

Also notable that TAP is 0 for 7.

Cheers,

Otis

Nice! Do you have a similar calc for MSW to Grade III on dirt? to Grade I?

MSW to G1:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%.

Avg Odds: 21.70
Avg Odds winners: 4.76
Avg finish: 4.38

Highest priced winners:

Sippican Harbor (16-1)
Mind Control (10-1)
Maxfield (6-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80)
S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10)
Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20)

MSW to G3:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%.

Avg Odds: 21.60
Avg Odds winners: 3.45
Avg finish: 4.83

Highest priced winners:

Cairo Cat (17-1)
Independence Hall (10-1)
Lombo (9-1)
Max Player (5-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00)
Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40)


While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months.

Cheers,

Otis

Otis.. The one question to ask in this is how much are simply extensions of the trainers normal production? After all, there are few (ALW) options any more other than Graded Stakes with 2yo and early season 3yo MSW winners.

Yes, absolutely. There is definitely a "seasonality" to this angle and we are nearing the end of it until the 2yos this autumn.

Some trainers are definitely more successful than others making this move. Chad, Baffert, Mott, Romans, Hollendorfer, Cox, Calhoun, McPeek win MSW to GS at 20+% clip. On the flip side, TAP has gone 0 for last 16 and O'Neill 1 for 20.

Cheers,

O

Thanks a bunch for posting the additional info!

I was hoping for something more promising than a -39% ROI for the Grade 3's. It's a fine line between G2 and G3. While it's possible there's something special about MSW-to-G2 that doesn't apply to MSW-to-G3 or MSW-to-G1, the complete lack of success with those moves makes it seem likely that the MSW-to-G2 result is a temporary aberration.

Thanks again for posting it.

Dunbar

Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.

But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years.

Cheers,

Otis

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

btw, thanks for mentioning the Betmix Angler app. I'm embarrassed to admit that I wasn't aware of it.

Dunbar

You are correct, sir! Extremely similar. For 2015-2017:

Win %: 12.05% vs 12.43%
ROI: -37% vs -36%
AVG odds of winners were both a shade over 4-1 for that period.

How about MSW to Non-Graded Stakes since 2015?

Win %: 546 out of 4,641 11.67%
ROI: -23%
AVG Odds Winners: 5.56

Highest Odds Winners:

Zapit 94-1 in Oklahoma Lassie at RP 10/2019 (Tim Martin)
Black Nova 77-1 in Hoosier Sophomore Stakes at IND 6/2018 (Ron Brown)
Freakonthelead 71-1 in Pelican Stakes at DED 1/2017 (S. Flint)
Starling 67-1 in Oklahoma Juvenile at RP 10/2018 (Megan Houser)
Academic 67-1 in Woodbine Oaks at WO 6/2015 (Reade Baker)

Note: All of the aforementioned races were restricted to state-breds. The list of double-digit winners for this angle are almost entirely comprised of winners of restricted races. The app doesn't let me run a report for restricted races only, so I can't give you exact numbers, but clearly it seems more productive to fish in the state-bred stake pools for this angle.

Top trainers for MSW to Non-Graded Stakes:

Asmussen: 23 wins, 21% win rate, ROI -18%
Pletcher: 13 wins, 23%, ROI: -38%
Casse: 12 wins, 15%, ROI: -53%
Fincher: 11 wins, 18%, ROI: -40%
Wes Ward: 10 wins, 37%, ROI: +100%
Baffert: 10 wins, 48%, ROI: +36%
J. Englehart: 8 wins, 33%, ROI: +103%
O'Neill: 7 wins, 18%, ROI: +17%
John Servis: 7 wins, 33%, ROI: +31%

Wes Ward and Jeremiah Englehart both over 100% ROI with this move.

Also interesting that MSW to Non-Graded Stake is a profitable move at Saratoga over the past five years, winning 12 out of 55 times (22%) and an ROI of +37%.

Cheers,

Otis

Thanks for the additional figs, Otis. The fact that the 2015-2017 MSW-to-Gr2 stats aren't consistent with the 2018-2020 stats makes it even more likely that those latter good results were an aberration.

The other stuff is interesting, but hard to make use of. With just 2-3 races per year fitting the positive EV angles, it's too hard to test going forward.

I can tell you're having fun with the app. Keep looking! You might find a hidden gem.

Spice is Nice Saturday in the Davona Dale. VERY impressive MSW winner going into a GII

Spice Is Nice has a good shot to end TAP's drought with this move. He is 1 for 23 since 2015, with the lone winner coming in August, 2016 at Saratoga (Nonna Mela in the Adirondack). 2nd

Other horses making this move at Gulfstream Saturday (with trainer record since 2015):

Chart (G. Contessa 0 for 1. Tried Davona Dale with Aspen Hilltop in 2017 and finished 13th) 10-1 Last

Candy Tycoon (T. Pletcher) 15-1 2nd
The Falcon (Quartarolo 0 for 2 with no ITM finishes. This one still a maiden) 50-1 7th
Country Grammer (Chad Brown 1 for 11 and has not hit since with this move since November, 2015 with Lewis Bay in the Demoiselle. Also heard Jay Privman say that Chad could not find an appropriate allowance race for Country Grammer and the ultimate goal is the Wood) 15-1 5th
Gear Jockey (G. Arnold 0 for 5) 20-1 8th

Spice is Nice is probably the only one with a real shot on Saturday, although Chart is equally unexposed.

Good luck!

Otis

No wins for TAP Saturday, but gaining a couple GII black type runners right after breaking their maidens is still pretty good.

Attfield filly yesterday count? G3, but still off her MDN breaker.

Elizabeth Way is an exciting prospect. I could not find any examples of Attfield trying MSW to G3 since 2015, so she must be a very special filly!

Here are this weekend's MSW to G2 dirt runners (with trainer record for this move since 2015):

TAMPA BAY DERBY

#1 Texas Swing (Pletcher 1 for 25 ROI: -60%) 12-1 3rd
#2 Spa City (McLaughlin 3 for 5 ROI: +173%) 10-1 7th
#5 Market Analysis (Pletcher) 8-1 6th
#6 Mo Mosa (Maker 0 for 2, both finished 5th) 30-1 12th
#9 Unrighteous (Pletcher) 20-1 7th
#12 Tons of Gold (Delgado 0 for 2 with a 2nd place finish for Paola Queen in the 2016 Gulfstream Park Oaks) 30-1 11th

SAN FELIPE

#2 Honor AP (Shirreffs no runners since 2015) 4-1 2nd


Here are this weekend's MSW to G3 dirt runners:

GOTHAM

#2 Informative (St. Lewis 0 for 1) 15-1 7th
#3 War Stopper (Rodriguez 0 for 6) 5-1 10th
#4 Attachment Rate (Romans 2 for 10 ROI: -55%) 9-2 3rd
#7 Sixto (Guillot 0 for 2) 8-1 9th

HONEYBEE

#6 Back in Charge (McPeek 2 for 14 ROI: +40%) 12-1 SCR

Good luck this weekend!

No wins this weekend for these class hikers, but blacktype for Texas Swing, Honor AP, and Attachment Rate

Otis

Five 2yos tripping this angle today at Churchill. Here are the trainer records for the move since Jan 2018:

GOLDENROD

Steve Asmussen runs Clariere (6-1)
2 for 6 (ROI +1%)

Brendan Walsh runs Princess Theorem (10-1)
0 fo 1 (but his only attempt finished 2nd with Plus Que Parfait in the 2018 KJC at 14-1)

KJC

Brad Cox runs Swill (6-1) and Inspector Frost (8-1)
0 for 2

Dale Romans runs Smiley Sobotka (5-1)
1 for 4 with an ROI of -3%

ROI for this angle has decreased from 33% to +16%. The last winner was Asmussen's Thoughtfully in the Adirondack at the Spa in August.

Good luck to all today!