Derby Trail Forums - 10/1: Bel/Aqu (4th-11th); Churchill (5th-11th); Santa Anita (5th-10th)

BELMONT/AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bees and Honey 2-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #4 Brattle House 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Flashndynamite 15-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Vegas Weekend 9-2 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Limits of Power 4-1: Half to Yaupon for Shug.. 4th
Best Value: #1 Cascais 8-1: Full to Mundaye Call for Chad.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Full Moon Madness 5-2: Sam Siegel homebred adds hood.. WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Mount Up 3-1: Army Mule from Todd/Viola/West Point.. 2nd

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-OFF/TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Courageous Oh La 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #15 Storm Shooter 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Bold Journey 10-1 DH-4th
Super Add: #14 Fenway 6-1 9th

7th: Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Life Is Good 1-9 WON ($2.10)
Best Value: #5 Informative 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Keepmeinmind 6-1 3rd

8th: Ms. Grillo (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Alluring Angel 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Be Your Best 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Free Look 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Georgees Spirit 10-1 6th

Must Pay P5 Grid:

4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), 2-3-6 (B), - (C)
6: 10-15 (A), 6-14 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

9th: BEL Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f-Outer (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Yes and Yes 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Dancing Buck 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Thin White Duke 9-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Arzak 4-1 4th

10th: Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #2 Top Recruit 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Gulfport 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Verifying 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Andiamo a Firenze 6-1 4th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f

Best Value: #5 Captainsdaughter 8-1 WON ($8.70)
Next Best: #3 Kant Hurry Love 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tellaperfecttale 6-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Ribot's Valentine 4-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-10 (A), 2-11-12 (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
11: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 4-6 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-7-10 (A), - (B), 11-12 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
11: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
A-C-A-A Backup (11-12 in 9th): 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Prairie Dunes 3-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Tapit's Conquest 5-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #7 Magnificent Mile 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Denington 7-2 6th

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (Derby City 6, P3, DD)

Wasn't sure there was enough pace in here for O Besos, but upon further review, there is..

Most Likely: #4 O Besos 9-5 WON ($3.56)
Next Best: #2 Surveillance 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Fore Left 9-2 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Too many of us are landing on Curlins Incharge..

Best Value: #7 Curlins Incharge 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Desert Wolf 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Ten Days Later 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Pappy Wolfe 20-1 9th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Strong Quality 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Complete Agenda 8-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Tiz Rye Time 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tepeu 3-1 4th

P4 Grid:

5: 2-10 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
A-A-A-C Backup (1-3-5): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

9th: Ack Ack (G3), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Want to use prices v. Speaker's Corner, but it sure looks like he gets his own way on the front end. Hernandez and Twilight Blue (12-1) (who's going well) could stay close and create trouble. Fulsome (5-1) is 2 for 3 at CD and 1 for 1 at the flat mile. Don't ignore Three Technique (12-1). And Asmussen mentioned Silver Prospector (12-1) for this when on with me Tuesday which usually indicates a plus effort..

Best Value: #10 Twilight Blue Gate SCR
Next Best: #1 Speaker's Corner 1-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Fulsome 5-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Three Technique 12-1 3rd

10th: Lukas Classic (G2), 3+, 9f (DD)

Another scenario where pace is murky. Guessing Johnny V stays close with Happy Saver..

Best Value: #3 Happy Saver 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Hot Rod Charlie 8-5 WON ($4.66)
Exotics Use: #2 Art Collector 2-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Rich Strike 6-1 2nd

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 One Time Mo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Scarlet Stripe 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Amaryllis Kiss 3-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Delight of the Nile 10-1 9th

P5 Grid:

7: 7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7 (A), 10 (B), 3 (C)
9: 1-10/SCR (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 8-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (3 in 8th) + $18 (3-5 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 7-10 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
9: 1-10 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-7-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x5x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
C-A-A-A Backup (3 in 8th): 1x2x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: City of Hope (G2), 3+, 1m-T (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Beyond Brilliant 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #1 Cathkin Peak 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Prince Abama 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Irideo 5-2 5th

6th: SA Sprint (G2), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Todo Fino SCR
Next Best: #2 Forbidden Kingdom 9-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Howbeit 8-1 WON ($14.40)
Exotics Use: #1 C Z Rocket 7-2 2nd

7th: Eddie D (G2), 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Couthard 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Gregorian Chant 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Tango Tango Tango 8-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Air Force Red 5-1 5th

8th: Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Country Grammar 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Royal Ship 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Express Train 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Slow Down Andy 12-1 3rd

9th: Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #4 Countess Rosina 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Connie Swingle 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Brandon'smylawyer 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Tezzaray 12-1 4th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Not the easiest way to end sequence(s)..

Most Likely: #7 The Dance Between 6-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Ragtime Rose 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Cahuilla 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Broadway Girls 12-1 5th

P5 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-7-10 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
A-C-A-A-A Backup (2-9 in 7th): 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
9: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-7-10 (A), 2-4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
A-C-A-A Backup (2-7 in 8th): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve