My Derby Trend.....
 

Every year, I get to hear all of these mindless stats and trends regarding the Kentucky Derby and past winners of the race. From lame, unsound, and useless pedigree numbers ('sup dosage index!) which eliminate practically no one, to the number of syllables in a horses name, right down to whether or not the horse has had his family jewels lopped off.

Instead of focusing on the two things that matter most---they being the horses overall ability, and the likelyhood that he will or will not thrive in what typically is a fast paced race, run at the demanding 10 furlong distance.--- people often want to focus on unimportant stuff. I've seen some otherwise sensible bettors do some pretty stupid things--such as letting workouts, post positions, and even trainer interviews change their opinions on how they intend to bet the race.

So, for the hell of it, I decided I'd discover my own little Derby trend. Since I make my living betting on horses, my trend is going to have to be based on sound logic, and will have to make more than a sliver of sense.

And so I found one. And here it is in all it's glory....it's based on a belief of mine that the vast majority of horses will tip their hand on the true ability they have, within the first two starts of their career.



In case you are wondering which current 3-year-old fits the trend and is going to be our next Kentucky Derby winner.....the answer is NONE OF THEM! That's right, the high and mighty DrugS Derby trend clearly shows that no one in this current crop is good enough to win the Derby. But, as well all know, someone is going to have to win it.

I guess I'll just have to go back to my old ways of evaluating horses and handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

So, I guess that means you'll be betting the chalk.

Keep it up....

And I will go photoshop on you about the merits of Appealing Zophie, and her dazzling 2nd place finish at 3-to-10 odds, at Delta Downs

Nothing like trends. Most are meaningless.

Yes,

However, it would be a little interesting if one of these Derby horses this year was actually close enough to almost fit the trend.

I guess Adore The Gold, Day Pass, Nobiz Like Shobiz, and perhaps Belgravia aren't miles away from fitting it.

Rand..

Not entirely.. Fads are meaningless.. Trends tend be impactful..

True enough....Cue Somer to post his angles. Haha.

My personal Derby trend is a mint julep as an eye opener around 8am after staying out all night. That's not a fad after 15 years, and though I have a lot of early speed out of the gate that early, I always pack a big closing kick.

Let me further myself in this sillyness......

Here are how all horses that fit the following profile have run in the Kentucky Derby, over the last four years.

Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

So, last three years, 6-3-2-0 record. Last four winners all fit. Not bad. No one fits it this year anyway though.

Hard Spun fits your profile.
I don't think it's the craziest trend, based on what has been successful long-term in getting a horse ready for the Derby (a solid base at two, obvious brilliance, etc.)

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

the delaware race... yes. was thinking of the penna nursery

The Penn Nursery wouldn't have met on Beyer figures though.

If anyone has the '03 Derby Past Performances, I'd be curious to know if Funny Cide was the only horse in the race who fit.

IMO, the single biggest factor(s) in handicapping the Derby winner is 1)find the key prep, 2) determine who was the best horse in that race, adjusting for pace, ground loss and/or bias.

Many times it isn't the winner (Monarchos in the Wood, Real Quiet in the SA Derby, Silver Charm in the SA Derby, Unbridled in the Blue Grass, possibly Giacomo in the SA Derby that speed ran 1-2-3 around the track) of that race.

I have a hard time believing Congaree didn't run better than Monarchos in the Wood Memorial....and Indian Charlie ran a better race than Real Quiet did in the SA Derby as well.

I can see where a strong case can be made that real brillant talents like Congaree and Indian Charlie wouldn't be as suited to a fast paced 10 furlong race as a Monarchos or Real Quiet would---however, they both got beat on the square in their final preps.

I disagree. Indian Charlie and Congaree were BOTH lone speeds in those races and benefitted. Real Quiet made a big move on the turn and wasn't beaten much; maybe a length and a half after spotting his stablemate the soft pace. And Monarchos had no chance trying to close on Congaree. FWIW, Congaree did run a tremendous race in the Derby; despite Monarchos' 1:59 4/5, IMO Congaree ran the superior race at CD.

I think your memory of those two races is a little sketchy.

Orville N Wilbur's--who had run a pair of 107 Beyers sprinting as a 2yo, and was coming off a 5 length win in the Gr 2 San Rafeal was loose on the lead in the SA Derby. Indian Charlie and eventual champion sprinter Artax were stalking in 2nd and 3rd.

In the '01 Wood...Richly Blended, who broke his maiden by 15 lengths earlier in the year, and won the Gotham in his prior start, was loose on the lead. Congaree stalked him.

Indian Charlie was a freak--he made his stakes debut in that SA Derby, and won it in stakes record time, earning the highest Beyer ever published in the SA Derby. Like Congaree, he ran 3rd in the Ky Derby, but he came out of the race with a career ending injury.

Congaree just loved AQU...he was 4-for-4 there in his career---winning two Cigar Miles, a Wood Memorial, and a Carter...all of them supremely impressive fashion.

Right again, funny cide was the only in 03

woah. for 7 years i've put up with you insulting one of the greatly most underrated horses of all time, and now you call IC a freak?

what is this world coming to?

the real reason, btw, that both IC and congaree lost the derby didnt have anything to do with racing styles, birthdays, trends, astrological signs, or anything else of that superstitous nonsense.

no, they both lost because i had both of them at 125/1 (150/1 on IC) or more in future book bets.

nuff said!

btw, i know this is slightly off topic, but artax, imo, was a vastly underrated racehorse. i really do believe he was better going two turns, and would have proven it with handling that ranked anything better than the absolute moronic management he received at the hands of bradshaw and ernie p.

i still cant believe bradshaw ran him against IC and RQ when he knew he was anemic!

Congaree
 

A liitle off topic but...
I remember being at Saratoga one morning for morning works when Baffert was getting Congaree ready as a 2yo....This would have been in July or August...what month did Congareee make his first start...My memory may be incorrect but I'm thinking that at the time that I saw him that morning, he had not raced yet...I do remember that Baffert was very high on the horse...the ownwers were there also...trying to remember...not sure but it seems like the owners were Stonerside...anyway he looked very impressive that morning at the Spa...

Congaree ran an incredible race in that Derby. He struck the front too soon or he might have been your winner... the rest of the pace finished nearly dead last.

You're going by how the horses looked on paper going into the race, not what actually happened. I loved Real Quiet and Monarchos in the Derby for a reason....both were compromised by soft to slow paces in those preps and still ran well. I don't care if Artax was in there or not, they went slowly and SA was notorious for being speed favoring. You're right about Richly Blended's record, but he went slowly as well. Anyone who watched the Wood knew Monarchos had little or no chance to catch Congare, who prompted that soft pace.

I do agree w/your point about the expected pace in the Derby usually being fast. Too many dillusional owners of horses who shouldn't be running past 1 1/16 miles.

Well, we will just have to disagree.

I bet Real Queit and had the exacta in that year's Derby, and while I didn't bet either Congaree or Monarchos in the Derby--I personally felt going in that Monarchos was the more dangerous of the two because of the pace.

However, I just don't think it's fair to say they that those two ran better than Congaree and Indian Charlie in their Derby preps.

I was obviously just kidding....

He's a bigger bum than Sun King or Meadow Flight.

Sun King a bum? That would mean 95% of todays horses are bums.

There is something else about these horses along with
Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Monarchos, War Emblem
oh yeah.. my 3 syllable rule. :p

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

1997 - 3
1998 - 5
2001 - 8
2002 - 4
2003 - 6
2004 - 7
2005 - 8
2006 - 10

I think the above is correct, but if not, don't shoot me over it. :p

Don't worry, I will take your word.

I'm not about to go combing through old result charts, saying names outloud and clapping.

LMFAO! I skipped the clapping part.

I'm glad everyone is having fun with this:p

but how many horses can you eliminate cause they don't:D

Hey, I'm with you. I do the same thing... haha.

Last year, Eurobounce had some psychic lady predicting the derby. It was hilarious. :D

4 horses nominated to the TC fit your so called derby trend this year -
Chelokee
I'm a Numbers Guy (No recorded workouts)
Steelix
Tiz Wonderful (Injured and off trail)

Looks like according to your formula it could be back to back for Matz!

I saw Steelix run last Saturday, and I think it's safe to say that the colt doesn't have much of a chance.