Summer Doldrums headed for the Gotham S. (G3) on March 10.
 

After he stunck up his stakes debut in the Remsen S. (G2), he was very ready to roll last week, an easy 8 plus lenghts, and still rolling after the line. Could see a nice stalking trip here, and runs the long strip to the wire with his late kick style.

Call me stupid, but I tend to use the dosage index approach for the derby, and this colt doesn't really fit the necessary profile. Giacomo didn't either, though (probably why I tossed him. :o ) Thoughts?

6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 1.00

Dosage is becoming obsolete as horses get further from the chefs-de-races and they continue to be reluctant to add new ones. All it has become is a measure of how few generations you are removed from the top stallions of old. That isn't even factoring in that it completely ignores any females in your pedigree.

Very impressive Saturday and being a son of Street Cry should get a distance of ground. However beating up on that field in Whirlaway compared to what he will probably face down the line makes me cautious.

Anyone have any opinion on whether he took advantage of any biases Sat? i think I recall him inside for the race and know Sun at Aqueduct there was huge inside bias

Is distance capability in the pedigree normally determined largely by the female family, though?

Summer Doldrums will be 2/5 in the Gotham (theres little else in there, most likely a 4 horse field). If you didnt bet him last week you can forget about a price on this Violette charge until the KY Derby.

Summer Doldrums is bred to thrive over a distance of ground.

His sire Street Cry won the 1 1/4 mile Dubai World Cup in supreme fashion over tough stablemate Sakhee.

His dam sire, Unacounted For, was beaten just one length by Cigar, at level weights, in the 1995 Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles. Cigar was a perfect 10-for-10 that season, and no one got closer to him all year than Unaccounted For did that day.

The female family is laced with sprinter/miler types---and is a nice injection of speed into the pedigree.

I don't pay any attention to dosage at all. This horse really has stepped his game up with the added distance....however, I have a hard time believing he's as good as that 106 Beyer suggests.

Each of the top four finishers in the Whirlaway Stakes had double digit new career tops---and with only one other route race on the AQU card, and a widely talked about rail bias---there are a lot of fluky things surrounding the race from a figure making standpoint.

Actually I didn't think he would try the lead, but the rail was the place to be Saturday. Bias, yes for sure. I consider his best ability to stalk, then pounce down the lane. Has a nice strong late kick, and the Big A has the longest streach, so they do have a way to compliment each other.

AQU Inner stretch is of course considerably shorter than the 1,155' of the AQU Main, and the Gotham will be run on the Inner this year..

Rick Violette on ATRAB Monday (starts 30:00 into segment):
http://www.attheracesandbeyond.com/stream/21207a.mp3

Giacomo's dosage fit, didn't it?

I think the DRF still lists the Inner Track stretch as being longer than the Main Track stretch. Seems like a mathematical impossibility but that's what it says!

Nevermind, Giacomo had 16 total points. I think somer's angles say one must have 18.

Bias was there. Quality is there as well and agree he will be around 4/5 unless someone new pops up.

No, Giacomo's didn't because he had a dosage index over 4.00, but isn't there a typical rule of thumb for derby contenders concerning the amount of dosage points in the classic category or middle category (if you use this angle?)

Here's an interesting site giving some common derby angles:

http://www.theyareatthepost.com/kent...cky-derby.html

Horses ranked within 10 pounds of the male topweight or who are a champion in another country and have a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less and a Center of Distribution of 1.25 or less are considered the dual qualifiers. These horses have statistically shown that they have a better chance at winning the Derby. Here are this year's dual qualifiers (so far):

Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey

Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher 2.67 * Rafael Bejarano

Circular Quay Todd Pletcher 2.08 * Garrett Gomez

Great Hunter Doug O'Neill 3.00 * Corey Nakatani

King of the Roxy Todd Pletcher 3.00 * Edgar Prado

Liquidity Doug O'Neill 1.86 * Corey Nakatani

Nobiz Like Shobiz Barclay Tagg 1.44 * Cornelio Velasquez

Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher 2.47 * John Velazquez

Stormello Bill Currin 2.67 * Kent Desormeaux

Street Sense Carl Nafzger 2.14 * Calvin Borel

Yeah, but a dual qualifier hasn't won in something like 10 years?

That's correct... it's just another angle to use, though. I definitely look at dosage points, but I think that the dosage index is becoming less important. I'm happy to see that my derby pick is a dual-qualifier. LOL

Here is a link to some info on Female Pedigree.
http://www.dimarpublishing.citymaker...ge/1367143.htm

Only 4 horses have ever won the Derby with a dosage of 4.00 or higher:

Strike the Gold '91
Real Quiet '98
Charismatic '99
Giacomo '05

Because of a reclassification of Strike the Gold's sire Alydar, his dosage would now not fit this profile. I believe his dosage is now considered to be in the 2.5 to 2.6 area. As someone stated above dosage is obviously becoming less prevalent considering that the horses that have bucked the trend have all been recent.

I am trying to read as much and learn as much as I can but all these terms are a little confusign. Can any one please explain what they mean or do I have to read a book and which book is it.

This link explains some of the terms such as dosage and dual qualifiers. May help you pick out your Derby horse.

http://www.kentuckyderby.info/handic...tuckyderby.php

in the simplest terms dosage is a mathmetical representation of a horses pedigree...it takes into account the amont of speed vs. stamina and then boils it down to a number...the lower the number the longer (theoretically) the horse wants to go...

for more reading...
www.chef-de-race.com

Thank you I am going to read it. When you say a horse wants to 'go longer' does that have anything to do with when they have a bowel movement? I know it sounds silly but maybe that means something to experts. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Everyone here seems so nice. I am sure I will learn a lot if I study and ask questions. Was Jerry Seinfeld a horse racing fan?

Steve, bar trivia:
The longest NYRA stretch?
The Aqueduct Inner. Look it up.

So if a dosage # is subject to change due to a reclassification, how accurate is it really?

I would say probably not all that accurate in today's thoroughbred...

I look more at the dosage points than I do at the dosage index. I wish I could remember the amount of points they look for in the classic category, but I think they look for (at the very least) 18 total points with the majority of those points being in the center and to the left of the center. For example, here is Barbaro's dosage profile:

DP = 14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41 CD = 0.70

His pedigree SCREAMED distance with having 21 points in the classic category. All of this is just another derby angle, but I've had some good luck by at least considering this and tossing the horses that I feel have no business trying to get a distance of ground. (Not always accurate, but a way of filtering contenders.)

I read the earlier post in this thread regarding this year's TC contenders. How did last years group measure up? I initially picked Lawyer Ron, but I seem to remember that his dosage # was on the high side.

His dosage index was above the recommended 4.0 for the derby, but not enough for it to cause concern (he had a 4.14 DI.) What always concerned me about Lawyer Ron was the fact that he didn't have enough points in the classic category to suggest that he could effectively go 10 furlongs. With that said, I didn't toss him solely because of his dosage issues, but because of his running style too. Horses that can't rate and need to be near the lead don't typically win the derby, and the combination of both the former and the latter made me think better about using him.

DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83

I like Hard Spun but I didn't see him on the list.

He's not a dual qualifier, but his dosage profile more than fits the "requirement" for the derby.