2/3: GP, SA, Magna 5, More..
 

GULFSTREAM (Plus Magna 5 events)

Superfectas, Rolling DD's and P3's in ALL Gulfstream events..

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f

Very important soph ALW with at least 3 Derby Trail-intended colts..

1. #7 Soaring By 8-5: Won early for Pletcher-Dogwood; A+ works for '07 bow.. 2nd
2. #6 Laser 8-1: Stretchout suits Awesome Again bay from Leroy Jolley (!).. 6th
A. #3 Green Secret 6-1: KMc-Darley grey DH'd Laser here 1/6 for W.. 5th
B. #5 Longley 3-1: Motion with rare classic type; may not be cranked up.. 3rd


3rd: 18th Deputy Minister (Gr. III), 4+, 6.5f

1. #5 Sir Greeley 2-1 2nd
2. #3 High Finance 3-1 4th
3. #4 Kelly's Landing 8-5 5th


4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f

1. #3 San Geronimo 5-2: Zito-Farmer thing debuted goofily at CD; ready now.. 6th
2. #8 Marnesia's Big Boy 8-1: Low profile Calder outfit; love mile drill 1/16.. 3rd
A. #4 Winstrella 6-1: Evans homebred via plus dam; sister Colonial Minstrel a multiple GSW.. 2nd
B. #2 Curlin 3-1: Our girl Helen sends Smart Strike firter; hot a.m. tab.. WON

$1 EXA $13.80
$1 TRI $99.50


5th: 22nd Swale (Gr. II), 3yo, 6.5f (P6)

1. #2 Adore the Gold 3-1: Gorham comer 3 of 4; adds Corny for '07 bow; zippy sunrise semesters.. WON
2. #6 Forefathers 4-1: Zayat KY-bred returned to U.S. with Zito; can stalk or go.. 2nd
A. #4 Cowtown Cat 5-2: $1.5MM Dist. Humor red turns round quick; why no stretchout? 3rd
B. #5 Reata's Rocket 4-1: Joe O with best soph since Macho Uno.. 4th

$1 EXA $16.90
$1 TRI $30.90
$1 SUPER (straight) $117.50


6th: 41st Canadian Turf H. (Gr. III), 4+, 8.5f-T

1. #8 Miesque's Approval 6-5: Defending '06 Turf Champion returns from 90 day vacation.. 5th
2. #1 SCRATCHED
A. #4 Host 3-1: After Ramazutti stunt last week, can't ignore this 7yo 8X winner.. 2nd
B. #3 Giant Wrecker 15-1: Brother of CDN sire Cat's at Home always tries.. WON

$1 EXA $92.40


7th: 18th Holy Bull (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m (P4)

1. #8 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-5: Tagg Remsen winner in good spot as Trail run commences.. WON
2. #2 Scat Daddy 2-1: First of several dozen Derby dropouts for Todd? 3rd
A. #5 Drums of Thunder 6-1: Kaplan making noise with trio of top sophs.. 2nd
B. #6 Bold Start 6-1: McPeek back on DT scene with this one, BirdBird.. 6th

$1 EXA $23.20
$1 TRI $42.00


LRL 9th (4:26pm): MSW, 3yo, 7f (Super, Leg A-Magna 5)

Tricky start to the Magna 5...

1. #11 Stowed Away 7-2: Turfy type from Tagg-Lael had slow start in PHA debut.. 4th
2. #5 Clever Hero 10-1: Gelding has faced some quality; may get lead.. 3rd
A. #10 More Cowbell 9-2: Motion newbie has steady works, go to boy.. 8th
B. #4 Moonmoonmoon 4-1: Trombetta bay has been ordinary at best; adds blinks.. WON


GP 8th (4:53pm): 58th Suwanee River H. (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 9f-T (Leg B-Magna 5)

1. #1 Naissance Royale 5-2: Rarely throws paired clunkers.. WON
2. #3 Nottawasaga 8-1: ALW shocker on major upswing for Coatrieux.. 4th
A. #6 Brazilian 6-1: Wolfson-Castro-Turf-Stake = dangerous.. 6th
B. #7 Cursora 10-1: Return to sod, addition of Kent D. may do trick for McPeek miss.. 5th


SA 4th (5:02pm): CA-bred OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5-DHT (.10 Super, Leg C-Magna 5)

1. #1 Mamselle Aries 3-1 3rd
2. #2 Princess McLean 8-1 5th
A. #7 Camelita 12-1 4th
B. #5 SCRATCHED


GG 4th (5:15pm): CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Leg D-Magna 5)

1. #3 P R's Princess 5-1 6th
2. #4 Love Fest 5-2 5th
A. #5 Cinderella Liberty 2-1 4th
B. #7 Sweet Merlot 3-1 WON


GP 9th (5:23pm): 49th Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f (Leg E-Magna 5)

1. #1 Invasor 6-5: This is right spot to try and beat '06 HOY; imposing, but.. [color="red"]WON[/COLOR}
2. #9 Strong Contender SCRATCHED SCR SUB #4 Chatain 6-1 4th
A. #7 Magna Graduate 4-1: Can he pull off a 'McCann's Mojave' here? 8th
B. #6 Hesanoldsalt 10-1: Rock solid and still improving for Nick, Live Oak.. 2nd

$1 EXA $10.10


10th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f

1. #2 Roman's Run 8-1 5th
2. #5 Rutledge Cat 5-2 6th
A. #3 High Act 6-1 4th
B. #7 Torini 4-1 7th
C. #6 SCRATCHED


<#200 MAGNA 5 Play:

A. (LRL 9): 4-5-10-11
B. (GP 8): 1-6
C. (SA 4): 1-2-7
D. (GG 4): 3-4
E. (GP 9): 1-7

4x3x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$200 GP P6 Carryover Play:

5: 2-6
6: 8
7: 2-8
8: 1-6
9: 1-4-7
10: 2-3-5-7

2x1x2x2x3x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 1-3-6-9
9: 1
10: 2-3-5-7-8

2x4x1x5 = $40

$1 P3 (R7-9) $5.60
$1 P3 (8-10) $222.60
$1 P4 (8-1-1-8) $447.30



SANTA ANITA (P6 Carryover)

.10 Supers races 5-6-8-10..

5th: CLM, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

1. #6 Lite Man 5-2 WON
2. #1 Whata Soldier 7-2 12th
A. #10 SCRATCHED
B. #13 Spectacular Bay 15-1 8th


6th: MSW, 6.5f-DHT (DD, P3)

1. #4 Reach for Gold 20-1 6th
2. #12 The Big One 7-2 2nd
A. #9 SCRATCHED
B. #10 Don'tbeatattletale 5-1 WON


7th: 7th Sham (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (DD, P3, P4)

1. #1 Ravel 3-1
2. #6 Liquidity 7-5 2nd
A. #2 Pirates Deputy 4-1 6th
B. #3 Time Squared 8-1 7th


8th: 4th Thunder Road, 4+, 1m-T (DD, P3)

1. #2 Cervelo 5-1 4th
2. #6 SCRATCHED
A. #1e Canani entry 8-5 1a 8th, 1 SCRATCHED
B. #8 Bayeux 10-1 2nd


9th: 60th Strub (Gr. II), 4yo, 9f (DD)

1. #6 Midnight Lute 9-5 4th
2. #5 Brother Derek 5-2 3rd
A. #3 Arson Squad 4-1
B. #4 Awesome Gem 3-1 5th


MSW, 3yo, 6f

1. #3 Jake La Gold 5-2 WON
2. #1 Fortified 10-1 9th
A. #10 Beyond the Rim 7-2 8th
B. #8 El Falcon 15-1 DH-4th
C. #6 Storms of Life 20-1 10th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-6-10
6: 4-12
7: 1-6
8: 1e-2
9: 6
10: 1-3-8-10

3x2x2x2x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


Enjoy the day! Good luck..
Steve



BONUS SELECTIONS: John DaSilva (NY Post) on DELTA DOWNS' LA PREMIER NIGHT

Top 3 results in red..

1st: 7-8-6 8-7-3
2nd: 7-3-6 7-3-1
3rd: 2-8-9 4-2-1
4th: 7-2-5 5-8-10
5th: 10-8-4 10-7-5
6th: 5-6-2 6-4-8
7th: 7-9-4 9-3-7
8th: 4-1-6 4-3-1
9th: 2-9-7 6-1-7
10th: 4-2-7 3-1-9

Good luck. I love that High Finance/Sir Greeley exacta.

Magna Graduate
 

"GP 9th (5:23pm): 49th Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f (Leg E-Magna 5)

A. #7 Magna Graduate 4-1: Can he pull off a 'McCann's Mojave' here?"


Steve, I'm sure you know this, but the difference between Magna Grad and Mccann's is Magna just ran a neg 4 tgraph, which makes him the fastest coming in.

Yes and beating Sweetnorthernsaint is one thing, beating Invasor is quite another. But cant blame those for taking a shot. This is the race to do it. I'm just not too sold on the horse that is going to do it.

Chatain is the most likely upsetter today.

I was refering to controlling the front end on a speed favoring track that carries notorious phonies like Magna Graduate, or McCann's Mohave, further than they deserve to go..

I understand what you mean, it's just that the neg 4 makes him less phony than the completely ridiculous Mccann's Mojave.. and with that said, how souped up is the rail going to be today?

Magna 5
 

1st Leg Laurel Race 9 ex box 11 w/ 1,4,5

#4 Moonmoonmoon - was steadied last time out adds blinkers luke warm fav.
#5 Clever Hero - should be in the lead - first timers excluded
#11 Stowed Away - poor post - will be in contention
#1 Onward and Upward - better post this time - Long shot pick

2nd Leg Gulfstream Race 8 tri box 1-3-9

#9 J'ray - I prefer the outside to the inside will be kicking for home with
#1 Naissance Royale - fav stuck on the rail - must include though
#3 Nottawasaga - 8-1 got a shot
#2 La Dolce Vita - 4th choice

3rd Leg Santa Anita Race 4 tri box 6-7-8

#8 Bettersweetmoment - just plain faster
#7 Camelita - my long shot pick
#6 Can I Call You Dad - right running style
#1 Mamselle Aries - GoGo

4th Leg Golden Gate race 4 tri key 3 over 4,5,7

#3 P R's Princess - good post good early speed
#5 Cinderella Liberty - where is Russel Baze? 2nd race off layoff
#4 Love Fest - leading jockey
#7 Sweet Merlot - wll be running late

5th Leg Gulfstream Park race 9 Superfecta 1 w/4,7 w/all w/ 5:rolleyes:

#1 Invasor - he likes to win
#7 Magna Graduate - distant 2nd chalky chalk chalk
#4 Chatain - lightly race candidate for a bounce has win over track
#5 Tap Dancing Mauk - running for 4th place that all


the Magan 5 bet

1st leg) 1,4,11
2nd leg) 3,9
3rd leg) 7,8
4th leg) 3
5th leg) 1


good luck

I had Mccann's Mojave (or as I like to call him #8)
the big phony paid $69. you gotta look out for that Golden Gate speed:p

he was the best of the pace setters and Sweetnothing was looking for excuses.

Last Sat was a dream come true for us longshot players

as for the rail.. I bet they do sup up the rail
they love to help super stars win

AND we get DaSilva's Delta Downs picks?

Wow....this place is just the gift that keeps on giving!

Congrats, Ae, one of my biggest weaknesses as a handicapper is that I am much better at complaining about a bias the next day than I am at taking advantage of it.. gotta work on that!

No reason to think it will be any less advantageous than it's been the last few weeks.

Regarding Magna Graduate, his big fig came on the unique AQU inner and he has NEVER performed when confronted by real horses.. His stakes wins are over the likes of Papi Chullo, Scrappy T and Crown Point.. Before anyone trots out his 'big' Clark win over Perfect Drift and Suave, take a good look at the :48.2 and 1:37.4 mile he carved out there. When confronted by real fractions in last year's Donn, albeit on a sloppy track he may not have cared for, he had no answer when Brass Hat, Pies Prospect and Andromeda's Hero came calling.

All that said, nothing that this barn gets away with surprises me, so I feel compelled to include him though he is utterly ridiculous.

Steve
 

I think you have the 2nd and 3rd leg of your Magna picks mixed up

I have

Santa Anita race 4 as the 3rd Leg and the Gulfstream race8 as the 2nd leg

Thx Ae,

Here's the layout from the MEC website..

Saturday, February 3

Leg Track Race Approx. Post (EST)

A Laurel 9 4:40 pm
B Gulfstream 8 4:53 pm
C Santa Anita 4 5:02 pm
D Golden Gate 4 5:16 pm
E Gulfstream 9 5:23 pm

Hmmm? Hmmm? Not so bad, eh? An 'exclusive' to Derby Trail yet..!!!

Gulfstream Picks
 

just the numbers in my exacta box

Race 1

3-6-7

Race 2

7-6-3

Race 3

2-4-5

Race 4

4-2-7

Race 5

2-3-4

Race 6

8-7-2

Race 7

8-6-2

Race 8

1-3-9

Race 9

1-4-7

Race 10

9-5-1

$60 invested

Steve - quick question. Can you give the angle for the #4 in the 6th at SA? 5yr old first timer, and McAnally is 5% with first timers. Just wondering if you had something that popped out in the Formulater or if Hammersly had some thoughts on this horse? I am finding others more appealing, like World Asunder, Rowan Charm or Tiznows Vineyard and just dont want to miss out on something at a FAT price. I did hear Hammersly say watch for Cervelo so maybe he had another recommendation on ATRAB that I missed??????

6th: MSW, 6.5f-DHT (DD, P3)

1. #4 Reach for Gold 20-1

Going for a modest price ticket for the Magna today.

Leg a) 4,10,11
Leg b) 1
Leg c) 1,6,7,8
Leg d) 1,3,4
Leg e) 1

$2 ticket = $72

Will be back later for late GP and Santa Anita fun.

Magna Grad
 

Man, it was cold as sh*t that day Magna Graduate won the Clark. Which brings me to a question that I've always wanted to ask serious handicappers. Do you guys ever take into consideration the conditions (other than the track surface and, for some guys, wind speed/direction) at the track that day? I mean, I think of it like I would if I had to get out there and run in 80 degrees vs. 25 degrees....I would be more in my stride in 80 degree weather than I would in 25 degree weather. Are horses not that sensitive to the temperature I guess? It just seems like their muscles would be tighter and less limber in cold weather vs. warm. At least that's usually how I am!! So, I guess what I'm saying is, if I'm looking for yet ANOTHER excuse to bet against MG, would the cold weather possibly be one of them??

I have always kind of wondered if MG would have held off Suave in that stretch duel if it would have been more ideal conditions, more condusive to each horse performing to their potential.

Oh, and it's got to suck to be a jock out there on 20-30 degree days...:eek:

Just a horse that reached out to me..

#1..? By Danehill.. Obviously has had issues being 5, but hasn't missed a morning beat sinced the start of the worktab and had the 1/8 bullet mixed in to boot. McAnally may be only 5% with firsters, but he's 20% first turf. He lays over on breeding, so if anywhere near ready, he seems live to me, and at 20-1 irresistable.

got it, the bullet shows enough speed to be close and if he is ready then he has a big chance. Thanks for the response, and all the hard work. I know capping all these cards, and doing it well, is a major time commitment.

Baze was involved in a three horse spill last Sunday and banged up his ribs pretty bad, out for at least a week.

Interesting angles in this race... I find it curious that Moger has two horses in this race, he doesn't usually do that, either one will scratch or he's using one for a rabbit - Moger is a very streaky trainer, he's either hot or cold. Another trainer with two horses in this race is Mason and he's more often to do that than Moger. I've been doing really well this GGF season playing the Mason/Rodriguez T/J combo - they've been hitting on some big priced winners the past few months... FYI.

Mag 5
 

A:4,5,8,10,11,12

B: 1

C:1,4,8,9

D:3,4,5,7

E:1

May be the day to go deep on legs C&D or play a cheap ticket...I'm trying :p to make a logical case for 3 singles in this M5
Leg A - Barclay Tagg sends a Lael enry that seems to do nothing but put up bullets - if this colt is gate ready, don't really see much of a challenge
Leg B - Chris Clement's Naissance Royale is clearly the class
Leg E- Invasor...C'mon....

Leg C is a tricky downhill OC32k/N1X on the blades. I'm going 5 deep here and using the 1,2,5,7,8 edit 5 scratched add the 9
Leg D - having a tough time with this one - lot of variables in this Clm20k
I'm throwing out the 7, Sweet Merlot as she's looks to be in over her head against this field...the 1 Docalady doesn't really do much to impress..going to toss the rail and the outside and play the 2,3,4,5,6 - Edit 1 scratched for 10 more bucks I'll press the ALL button here

M5 ticket looks like:
11
1
1,2,7,8,9
2,3,4,5,6,7
1

60 bucks

Got greedy...should have added Trombetta's entry in the first leg, had it and the 10 but didn't want to spend the 180.00 :(

GP P6

A/B/C/D choices
2,4/5,6/7
8/4/2,7/3,5
8/2/3,6
2,3/9/1,8/others
1/ /4/7
9/5/3,7/2

making a $472 play on 26 combos.

Wouldn't be shocked if #3 Turks Rebecca springs the upset in the Santa Anita 4th as the longest shot on the board. . .

Any reason for AQU cancellation mid card.. Usually they give a reason. Hoping no one was seriously injured in the breakdown in the 5th.

Magna 5 Scratches
 

Leg A - 9 Deans Gael
Leg C - 5 Excessive B&B
Leg D - 1 Docalady
Leg E - 9 Strong Contender

GP 4
 

7) Holy Bull BOLD START has the look of live horse after gamely defeating entry level foes off the shelf. His dam Beyered in the mid-nineties and so has three siblings. Kenny fabulous with youngsters, Kent D stays and last Saturday three quarters just fine. Adding 'Showbiz who has been working lights out for clever conditioner as homebred tries to follow in his granddads footsteps.. Go For Gin.

Suwannee Cannot quite comprehend Nottawasaga off at nearly 30-1 in a race she targeted some six months earlier. 700K Keeneland grad, named for Toronto amusement park has always had a spot of class and actually ran a few ticks faster than the Marshua River two races later where Naissance Royale finished a troubled second. Nottawasaga should improve here as handicappers bounce more often than horses and work last Saturday matches up with Invasor's five eights. 'Royale certainly figures for exceptional grass conditioner with the extra real estate a big plus. These two in a strangely weighted event.

Donn Playing this sequence because of the extraordinary hype surrounding Invasor and his vulnerability in this spot. I would have singled Strong Contender but understand he is stranded at a rest area and the trainers cell phone is going dead!! Hesanoldsalt, should he win, would earn more than he has in his entire fifteen race career! Yet the others do not appeal and 'Salt gets nine pounds from a horse that has had one race in the last six months. Not an easy spot in last after winning the Hooper picking up eleven pounds, but now Live Oak homey drops ten on those. A rule of thumb, primitive as it may be says; at nine panels for each pound dropped add one Beyer point. I suspect 'Salt with a new top could get to a 109 or so and that may be enough as Invasor may be fit, but not sharp?

10) While turf to dirt is bunch of baloney Rutledge Cat is doing just that for solid connections. Tale of the Cat sophomore seems to have these over a barrel... but we will add Seaside Links. Casse was able to get this colt bred long on long to win his debut at 4 1/2 panels in June! 100K keeneland grad has faced better and that sure was a confident looking five eights last Friday.
Call it: 6,8,/ 1,3 / 6 / 1,5 Play tomorrow in new orleans. BBB

I've always thought that Sam P is a better horse than Scat Daddy. We'll find out today.

Drums of Thunder @ 22-1 is a gift. 6-1 m/l and better that both of the aformentioned, in my opinion.

Good call, hope you got the exacta]

Thnx. No exacta - I played a 20.00 p/s figuring the no one was catching Nobiz Like Showbiz and the exacta wouldn't payoff with an underlay. place paid 9.40/ show paid 2.60 or something

Thanks Agian Steve
 

Hey Steve,
Thanks Again 218.00 to win. My god I never thought that horse had a chance. You are the freaking man again!!!

Thanks Brotha!!!


Gilbert

Hals my Hope?
 

[quote=Kasept]

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 1-3-6-9
9: 1
10: 2-3-5-7-8

2x4x1x5 = $40



Steve,

I do NOT know what you saw in the 8 in the 10th race, but your rock. Thanks to you I hit the P4 for $447 for a $40 ticket! You are awesome. I played a slightly different ticket than yours but thanks to you I had the 8 in the finale.

Thank God Strong Contender scratched or else you would not have changed your ticket.

HH

Steve, please tell me why you included the 8, Hal's My Hope on your ticket??? I was live with the 9 and 10, and am still in a state of shock. If I were allowed to bet now, knowing that he won, I still probably wouldn't include him in my tickets:(

Easily the worst beat of my life yesterday. I needed the Zito for pick 3 and pick 4 tickets multiple times. Couldnt believe the pick 4 would have come back $86 for a $2 bet had Zito's horse won. That was preceded by Nobiz like Shobiz, Naisance Royal and Invasor (4/5, 4/5 and 2/5).

I wont say how many times I had the pick 4 because I am still in pain.

Gander, I just looked at the 8's Thorograph sheet again to see if there was something (anything) that I may have missed. In only 1 of his 13 career starts did he run anything that would have been even mildly competitive in this race. I also had the Zito horse, as well as the fast closing 10 (Desormeaux, who's not so perfectly timed moves I had been betting on all day). Mind boggling, and very difficult to let this one go.

Was looking for a throw-in or two after the Strong Contender scratch as the race seemed like a mess and spreading wider made sense. Had an experience edge and a race fast enough to win 4 or 5 back. Plus, the return of Rivera intrigued me as the horse had shown interest to stay near the lead under him, and that was a quality that figured to be a plus.

Honestly, it was dumb luck as I left the Zito off the ticket because of the 9 post and beyond issues at the trip, and obviously could have been burned by it with a head bob the other way...

I'm really happy for those of you that scored!!

Steve, that was a great addition on your part, he had run 1 competitive # 4 starts back (the only one of his 13 race career), I didn't look at him long enough to notice the jockey switch. It is interesting/ironic that he had the same trip as Mccann's Mojave (with the same devastating result).