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-   -   Santa Anita carryover $723,774 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9054)

eurobounce 01-22-2007 10:26 AM

Santa Anita carryover $723,774
 
Well I guess it is time for some handicapping. Anyone interested in talking about the pick 6 on Wednesday?

Kasept 01-22-2007 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Well I guess it is time for some handicapping. Anyone interested in talking about the pick 6 on Wednesday?

E/B..

We're going to have a Forum Contest with this Carryover... Idea is for Trailers to construct tickets (single or multiples) totally $2,000-$2,500...

Offering prizes but the real concept is to generate chat to help people understand how to build viable P6 plays with real money.. Will write up the idea shortly. Hopefully an extensive discussion thread on it as well through Wednesday...

eurobounce 01-22-2007 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
E/B..

We're going to have a Forum Contest with this Carryover... Idea is for Trailers to construct tickets (single or multiples) totally $2,000-$2,500...

Offering prizes but the real concept is to generate chat to help people understand how to build viable P6 plays with real money.. Will write up the idea shortly. Hopefully an extensive discussion thread on it as well through Wednesday...

That is a great idea. The pick 6 bet is the best in the game when there is a carryover. I assume many people are like me and have trouble putting together a pick 6 ticket that is economical and one that makes sense.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-22-2007 11:02 AM

The Friz makes it a pick 5.Only got beat last time cuz Monteleone had one lit up like 4th of July.I was surprised she ran that good(cuz Cerin was givin' away.)Now,he protects by raising to 16k.If get beat,would not be astonished if it was by the "bad trainer" on the outside.

Kasept 01-22-2007 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
That is a great idea. The pick 6 bet is the best in the game when there is a carryover. I assume many people are like me and have trouble putting together a pick 6 ticket that is economical and one that makes sense.

Can't take credit... "BTW" said to me right away last night that this kind of Carry would be a great opportunity for people to get a feel for structuring tickets going after 'real money'... With a limited racing schedule Tuesday, BTW agreed at my request to "host" the discussion.

For those that don't know, Andy (BTW), in addition to his well-loved personna at the DRF-Siro's Saratoga Seminars, has a long history of smashing success betting and hitting Pick 6's personally... including at least 2 in the 6 figures.

Profiled in a NY Times feature piece last summer as being synonomous with everything Saratoga is about, Andy can help us better understand the "A-B-C-X" horse concept of building multi-race wagers, as popularized and elucidated by Steve Crist in his recent "Exotic Betting"...


Should be great, and I thank Andy for generously offering to do it...

Coach Pants 01-22-2007 11:24 AM

This is a great idea.

I'm not going to play the pick 6 wednesday but i'll definitely cap it and participate. This is the kind of contest that would be outstanding on a Saturday. Are there plans for another contest on a weekend carryover?

blackthroatedwind 01-22-2007 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants
This is a great idea.

I'm not going to play the pick 6 wednesday but i'll definitely cap it and participate. This is the kind of contest that would be outstanding on a Saturday. Are there plans for another contest on a weekend carryover?


A weekend carryover would be fine as well.

To me, you have to try to win to learn HOW to win, and little is to be learned from making small Pick-6 tickets. By increasing the size of the play to where one has a realistic chance to hit the player is forced to learn how to make the correct choices which can be the difference between winning and losing.

The multiple ticket approach is the best plan, IMO, as no player should want to weigh EVERY horse they use the same.....especially as you start spending more money.

eurobounce 01-22-2007 11:38 AM

BTW--this is a fantastic idea. I really look forward to picking your brain.

outofthebox 01-22-2007 11:40 AM

I definately need to pay attention closely to this discussion. I have no clue how to structure pick 6 tickets.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-22-2007 11:41 AM

you mean you shouldent single in a MAIDEN CLAIMER THATS A WIDE OPEN RACE WITH 3 PROBIBLE WINNERS..LMFAO..DOWN GOES......:D :D

SCUDSBROTHER 01-22-2007 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox
I definately need to pay attention closely to this discussion. I have no clue how to structure pick 6 tickets.

TRAINERS PROBABLY HAVE TO SINGLE THEIR HORSES ON A PICK 6 TICKET.Must be silent partners on a lot of friend's tickets.

scrimshaw 01-22-2007 12:35 PM

Boy, talk about an exercise in futility trying to pick winners outta that group. Although I think there are a couple of fairly solid singles in race 4 and race 6. But, other than that, I came up with 4 in leg 1, 5 in leg 3, and 3 in the last 2 legs.

That's a starting point I suppose. I don't have any big money to throw at it, so I'll play in the contest just to have a little fun.

outofthebox 01-22-2007 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
TRAINERS PROBABLY HAVE TO SINGLE THEIR HORSES ON A PICK 6 TICKET.Must be silent partners on a lot of friend's tickets.

Well then the hell with playing the pick 6 when ive got horses running. My horses lose 90% of the time!

Scav 01-22-2007 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
TRAINERS PROBABLY HAVE TO SINGLE THEIR HORSES ON A PICK 6 TICKET.Must be silent partners on a lot of friend's tickets.

Scuds, that is only in California. If you are associated with a horse in that race (owner/trainer) you have to single on top. This is third hand knowledge from Frank Lyons

eurobounce 01-22-2007 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman5581
Boy, talk about an exercise in futility trying to pick winners outta that group. Although I think there are a couple of fairly solid singles in race 4 and race 6. But, other than that, I came up with 4 in leg 1, 5 in leg 3, and 3 in the last 2 legs.

That's a starting point I suppose. I don't have any big money to throw at it, so I'll play in the contest just to have a little fun.

I am with you JMAN. This is what a pick 6 should be. This is extremely difficult.

lemoncrush 01-22-2007 04:33 PM

If anyone has a strong angle or hunch on the 7th race (the feature), I'd love to hear it. I looked at this race for the past 20 minutes and can't get a good read on it.

timmgirvan 01-22-2007 05:34 PM

Kasept: please make sure this discussion is archived for future instruction!:)

eurobounce 01-22-2007 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush
If anyone has a strong angle or hunch on the 7th race (the feature), I'd love to hear it. I looked at this race for the past 20 minutes and can't get a good read on it.

Lemon--I cant make heads or tails of it either. For me I have to make a stand on this race or go ALL. Right now I really am looking at Singalong, Movie Star and Dreams. Of course this will prob change 1 million times in the next day or so. But right now it looks like a single or all in the 7th for me.

lemoncrush 01-22-2007 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Lemon--I cant make heads or tails of it either. For me I have to make a stand on this race or go ALL. Right now I really am looking at Singalong, Movie Star and Dreams. Of course this will prob change 1 million times in the next day or so. But right now it looks like a single or all in the 7th for me.

I agree. Either single singalong in the 7th and go 4-5 deep in the 8th, or take a bunch in the 7th and single highly gallant in the 8th, which I would hate to do, since I like 4 others in the nightcap.

eurobounce 01-23-2007 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush
I agree. Either single singalong in the 7th and go 4-5 deep in the 8th, or take a bunch in the 7th and single highly gallant in the 8th, which I would hate to do, since I like 4 others in the nightcap.

The thought of picking a single in the 8th makes me sick. But the 7th and 8th are very hard for me to handicap. I have no real opinion on either race.

Gander 01-23-2007 01:53 PM

Us poor people should treat the pick 6 like a lottery. Spend no more than $8 on a ticket just in case your handicapping is absolutely on fire for 6 races in a row. Any more than that and you may as well flush your money down the toilet.

Or find someone with deep pockets and have them back you.

SniperSB23 01-23-2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Us poor people should treat the pick 6 like a lottery. Spend no more than $8 on a ticket just in case your handicapping is absolutely on fire for 6 races in a row. Any more than that and you may as well flush your money down the toilet.

Or find someone with deep pockets and have them back you.

Just pick six random numbers and play it like the lottery. It is a way better deal.

brianwspencer 01-23-2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Us poor people should treat the pick 6 like a lottery. Spend no more than $8 on a ticket just in case your handicapping is absolutely on fire for 6 races in a row. Any more than that and you may as well flush your money down the toilet.

Or find someone with deep pockets and have them back you.


Or you should just PM Bellsendboy -- he's going to take down the whole thing tomorrow on a $64 ticket, I would imagine.

blackthroatedwind 01-23-2007 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Or you should just PM Bellsendboy -- he's going to take down the whole thing tomorrow on a $64 ticket, I would imagine.

And if he diesn't it's because the races were fixed.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
i understand what you're saying but realistically why spend 600 on a ticket that's gonna pay 150? i am poor so i pick 6 then use those same horses in every other multi-race bet within, that way i come out ahead (or close to even) --- does that make sense for a 1 or 2 dollar bettor?

About as intelligent as this:
http://www.funnyville.com/funny-flash/dengdeng.html

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
who is the friz and what race bro?

Antifreezette(sister of Annette,and best friend of Suzette.)

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-23-2007 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
okie dokie smokie...i looked at tthe entries at 5am cause i couldn't fall back asleep and my minutes were free so, being only on my first bloody mary and second beer i couldn't understand your post...i'm better now thank u, time to get the clothes outta the dryer and get to work---GO BEARS!!!

my liver hurts just reading this..lmfao:D

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
okie dokie smokie...i looked at tthe entries at 5am cause i couldn't fall back asleep and my minutes were free so, being only on my first bloody mary and second beer i couldn't understand your post...i'm better now thank u, time to get the clothes outta the dryer and get to work---GO BEARS!!!

LOL......You f'n lush.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 02:45 PM

Which single is most likely to fail? Antifreezette,Red Opal,or Highly Gallant?

scrimshaw 01-23-2007 02:48 PM

See my picks from earlier for my opine.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-23-2007 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Which single is most likely to fail? Antifreezette,Red Opal,or Highly Gallant?

gallaent..

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
gallaent..

OMG..NOT QUEEN CARLA.......Hooves,how can you say such things? You really don't expect stick figure along side that horse in the circle? I thought I was the only one to question this.

ArlJim78 01-23-2007 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Or you should just PM Bellsendboy -- he's going to take down the whole thing tomorrow on a $64 ticket, I would imagine.

No. $64 is for a tough Pk4 ticket. He'll have to spend at least $100 to take down this P6.

lemoncrush 01-23-2007 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Which single is most likely to fail? Antifreezette,Red Opal,or Highly Gallant?

I'm actually leaning towards singling Court Seeker rather than Antifreezete (on my real ticket, which will be under $300).
Any horse that run that bad at Fairplex and Del Mar last summer in an 8000 level claimer is NOT worth singling in a 16000 level claimer. And Antifreezete's biggest win came at 5-1/2 furlongs on the cushiontrack with Pval. William Antongeorgorgie III is no p-val, and he might not be lone speed tomorrow either.

ArlJim78 01-23-2007 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Which single is most likely to fail? Antifreezette,Red Opal,or Highly Gallant?

I have a hunch, after looking last night, that Antifrizzette may be the one to fail. Three more or less lifetime tops in a row, I'm not going to single that one.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-23-2007 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I have a hunch, after looking last night, that Antifrizzette may be the one to fail. Three more or less lifetime tops in a row, I'm not going to single that one.

ACTUALLY,she gets a huge rider upgrade from her last race,and a nice weight break.Horses run for this guy.My main concern is Cerin.You just can't trust that cat.Could be Stalin's Grandson.Big cheat,and manipulative as all hell.He cares only about Cerin.


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