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-   -   Hard Spun!!! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8785)

smartyalex 01-13-2007 04:47 PM

Hard Spun!!!
 
Looked real good this evening!!!

miraja2 01-13-2007 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Exciting 3 year old.

Yes he is.
I have not seen the race from today yet, but he does seem interesting. His previous races have looked nice, and his pedigree seems to indicate that he could be effective when the spring 3yo races stretch out to 8.5 and 9 furlongs. He is by Danzig, of course, but more importantly the dam side of his pedigree is dominated by horses that were all G1 winners at 10f and beyond (Turkoman, Alydar, Roberto). Now I am no pedigree expert like many on this board are, but it seems to me like that indicates that stretching out should not bother him.
If he stays healthy I think he will be a factor in the bigger 3yo races in March and April.

saucon17 01-13-2007 05:24 PM

Did Mario Pino forget the mile race finishes at the first finish line
or was he told to ride him out and extra 1/16 of a mile to the second
finish line at FG. However he was impressive indeed.

brianwspencer 01-13-2007 05:27 PM

Wow, he made my boy Makeithapen look real real bad there.

This horse seems to have lots going for him, can't wait to see him throughout the Spring.

Hopefully, Makeithapen's people will think about the Illinois Derby if they really want to go to Louisville with him -- there's enough good money to be made there for a single race on a track that he loves.

brianwspencer 01-13-2007 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17
Did Mario Pino forget the mile race finishes at the first finish line
or was he told to ride him out and extra 1/16 of a mile to the second
finish line at FG. However he was impressive indeed.

From drf.com

Hard Spun completed the mile - which ends at the sixteenth pole finish line - in 1:37.87 and galloped out an extra sixteenth of a mile to the normal finish line, per instructions from trainer Larry Jones.

jpops757 01-13-2007 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
From drf.com

Hard Spun completed the mile - which ends at the sixteenth pole finish line - in 1:37.87 and galloped out an extra sixteenth of a mile to the normal finish line, per instructions from trainer Larry Jones.

A jockey doing as instructed. How strange.

Danzig 01-13-2007 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Yes he is.
I have not seen the race from today yet, but he does seem interesting. His previous races have looked nice, and his pedigree seems to indicate that he could be effective when the spring 3yo races stretch out to 8.5 and 9 furlongs. He is by Danzig, of course, but more importantly the dam side of his pedigree is dominated by horses that were all G1 winners at 10f and beyond (Turkoman, Alydar, Roberto). Now I am no pedigree expert like many on this board are, but it seems to me like that indicates that stretching out should not bother him.
If he stays healthy I think he will be a factor in the bigger 3yo races in March and April.

don't forget that danzig sired danzig connection, a belmont winner.

congrats to hard spun, may his great racing continue!!

miraja2 01-13-2007 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
don't forget that danzig sired danzig connection, a belmont winner.

congrats to hard spun, may his great racing continue!!

True. Danzig has sired some good dirt routers in Pine Bluff, Chiefs Crown, Stephens Odyssey, Polish Navy etc. But from what I know about it, the dam is more important than the sire in determining a horse's ability to stay going 9f and beyond.
Take your Danzig Connection example. His broodmare sire (Sir Ivor) was a multible stakes winner at the lengthy distance of 12f. More importantly, Danzig Connection had a lot of Princequillo on his dam's side. That is where the whole mutant heart business comes into play, and is probably why DC could win going 12f.
Anyway, I digress....Hard Spun appears to have talent and a pedigree that indicates he might be strong going 9f and beyond. He could be a nice 3yo.

Danzig 01-13-2007 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
True. Danzig has had sired some good dirt routers in Pine Bluff, Chiefs Crown, Stephens Odyssey, Polish Navy etc. But from what I know about it, the dam is more important than the sire in determining a horse's ability to stay going 9f and beyond.
Take your Danzig Connection example. His broodmare sire (Sir Ivor) was a multible stakes winner at the lengthy distance of 12f. More importantly, Danzig Connection had a lot of Princequillo on his dam's side. That is where the whole mutant heart business comes into play, and is probably why DC could win going 12f.
Anyway, I digress....Hard Spun appears to have talent and a pedigree that indicates he might be strong going 9f and beyond. He could be a nice 3yo.

i hope he turns out well. never been up on a 3 yo this early in the year. been watching him since two races ago....

and yeah, it's supposed to be speed from the sire, stamina from the dam, but...horses don't know who their parents are!

danzig sires anything and everything. an amazing horse.

miraja2 01-14-2007 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
but...horses don't know who their parents are!

Of course. Pedigree alone is NEVER a reason to be excited about a horse's chances. I get excited about a horse when it shows ability (which this colt has) AND has a pedigree which indicates that it SHOULD be able to stretch out.
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
For example, if someone was excited about Lawyer Ron early last year, guess what, they were right! Just because he was a nonfactor in the Derby and missed the rest of the TC, his performance in the Risen Star/Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby means that his early backers were right. It should not be ALL about the first Saturday in May.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

Cajungator26 01-14-2007 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757
A jockey doing as instructed. How strange.

LMAO! :D

Danzig 01-14-2007 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Of course. Pedigree alone is NEVER a reason to be excited about a horse's chances. I get excited about a horse when it shows ability (which this colt has) AND has a pedigree which indicates that it SHOULD be able to stretch out.
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
For example, if someone was excited about Lawyer Ron early last year, guess what, they were right! Just because he was a nonfactor in the Derby and missed the rest of the TC, his performance in the Risen Star/Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby means that his early backers were right. It should not be ALL about the first Saturday in May.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

true...so many horses are considered a failure if they don't win in ky, but only ONE horse can win--every other 3 yo is a failure, or overrated if they don't?!

another horse i got on somewhat early was smarty--but i didn't think he was truly going to win the derby til he won the ark derby. i turned to my kids after he crossed the finish that day and said there's your derby horse. it was fun-but in a way, not so fun...you know that if you're right, that the horse is that good, you're days watching him are numbered.

i know rick porter was already offered a lot of money for this guy-those offers will only get bigger if he continues to do so well.

Sightseek 01-14-2007 11:36 AM

If he stays at Fair Grounds looks like he'll be tested against Circular Quay on the road to the Derby. Pletcher reported as saying he thought the longer stretch would be most beneficial to CQ's running style.

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
If he stays at Fair Grounds looks like he'll be tested against Circular Quay on the road to the Derby. Pletcher reported as saying he thought the longer stretch would be most beneficial to CQ's running style.

Isn't Tabor a poly lover? Wouldn't surprise me to see the horse go to the Lane's End and the Blue Grass as his preps.

Sightseek 01-14-2007 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Isn't Tabor a poly lover? Wouldn't surprise me to see the horse go to the Lane's End and the Blue Grass as his preps.

Today's racing form...

jpops757 01-14-2007 12:06 PM

We all talk about top trainers . Larry Jones is always under the radar. I would like any of you name one horse he has trained that under performed. He always has his runners ready and seem to always do the right thing for his horses. These conection are a big plus mark.

Samarta 01-14-2007 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
true...so many horses are considered a failure if they don't win in ky, but only ONE horse can win--every other 3 yo is a failure, or overrated if they don't?!

another horse i got on somewhat early was smarty--but i didn't think he was truly going to win the derby til he won the ark derby. i turned to my kids after he crossed the finish that day and said there's your derby horse. it was fun-but in a way, not so fun...you know that if you're right, that the horse is that good, you're days watching him are numbered.

i know rick porter was already offered a lot of money for this guy-those offers will only get bigger if he continues to do so well.

No way he sells him no matter what the offer is.

Samarta 01-14-2007 12:24 PM

One thing I find interesting is that Jones shipped Hard Spun to Oaklawn for the Winter and is now indicating that he will take the Louisiana route and not the Arkansas route to the Derby. If that pans out, I wonder how the folks at Oaklawn will feel about the connections. Probably already a little strained to begin with.

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Problem with the Lane's End is it's only 2 weeks before the Bluegrass and I doubt Pletcher wants to run him so close back to back. I expect we'll see him in the Risen Star, LA Derby and then the Bluegrass.

The Lane's End is 3/24 and the Blue Grass 4/14 so that gives three weeks in between which is certainly possible if they want to go that route. The Risen Star is going to be loaded if CQ shows up.

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Yeah you're right. Who else is pointing for the Risen Star?

Hard Spun and a couple sleeper Derby horses I like in Grasshopper and Zanjero. I was thinking Makeithapencaptain too but after his effort yesterday he hardly improves the race if he goes.

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I thought I read Hard Spun is being pointed towards the LA Derby, but I could be wrong. I like Zanjero as well, if he continues to improve he'll be a handful this year.

I think he may go in the Risen Star first but not sure. Any word on where Tiz Wonderful, Great Hunter, and Any Given Saturday are going this year? I know O'Neill said yesterday he was going to seperate Notional and Great Hunter so at least one should come east.

smartyalex 01-14-2007 01:37 PM

From Oaklawn's web site:


HARD SPUN ROMPS TO LECOMTE VICTORY ON SATURDAY
Undefeated Hard Spun, stabled at Oaklawn, travelled to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans for Saturday's featured $100,000 Lecomte Stakes and drew clear to an easy victory in the one mile event for three-year-olds.

The early favorite for the Arkansas Derby took command from the outset in the Lecomte under jockey Mario Pino and maintained the lead by nearly a length all the way to the head of the stretch.

Jockey Pino then asked the even-money favorite to finish up well and the bay son of Danzig drew clear from the field for his convincing win. Izzie's Halo, twice stakes-placed for trainer Tom Amoss, outlasted the six rivals for he place spot, while Sugar Bowl Stakes winner Teuflesberg, the second chice at 7-2, had no punch in the stretch and finished a distant third.

Racing in the silks of Fox Hill Farm, owner of previous Oaklawn stars Rockport Harbor and Round Pond, Hard Spun was taking his career record to four wins from four starts and his earnings to $160,970. Trainer Larry Jones has indicated that the next stop on the Triple Crown trail for Hard Spun will be the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Presidents' Day, Monday, February 19.

smartyalex 01-14-2007 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I think I got a workout notification for Tiz Wonderful at oaklawn so maybe he's going that route. I haven't heard anything about Any Given Saturday so maybe he's at Gulfstream. Great Hunter I have no idea.


5F Oaklawn
Tiz Wonderful 1/6/2007 Dirt GD B 1:07.00

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I think I got a workout notification for Tiz Wonderful at oaklawn so maybe he's going that route. I haven't heard anything about Any Given Saturday so maybe he's at Gulfstream. Great Hunter I have no idea.

Looks like Notional might be pointed to the Arkansas Derby and Great Hunter will stay west for the Robert Lewis (formerly Santa Catalina).

SniperSB23 01-14-2007 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Interesting, because Notional seems to really run well at Santa Anita.

Yeah, I kinda hope he fails anyways since I think that Mile was about his limit distance wise and he could be a very nice sprinter if not ruined in the Derby.

Danzig 01-14-2007 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samarta
One thing I find interesting is that Jones shipped Hard Spun to Oaklawn for the Winter and is now indicating that he will take the Louisiana route and not the Arkansas route to the Derby. If that pans out, I wonder how the folks at Oaklawn will feel about the connections. Probably already a little strained to begin with.

yeah, i saw he mentioned the la derby....hope he changes his mind.

The Bid 01-14-2007 07:20 PM

Hes taking the right route. Why stay at Oaklawn and get your head chopped off by Westwon

avance2000 01-15-2007 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

i just wanted to take a second to thank danzig188 and miraja2 for actually providing us with an interesting discussion about a derby contender they like without making any absurd predictions or declarations.
in this instance, i actually disagree with your analysis, because to me hard spun doesn't move in a way that makes me think he will be strong going 9+ furlongs against true g1/g2 competition. but regardless who is right, the colt is 4 for 4 so i can't blame you for liking him, but mainly i just appreciate your rational discussion, and most of all, your restraint.

todko 01-15-2007 10:57 AM

Visually impressive.

However the allowance types did the 1m40yds in 1:39+ -- Hard Spun was 1:37 and change for the mile. Nothing riveting but it's only January. Decent pace and ran out well.

The bigger concern is that he looks to be a "need the lead" type and that's unlikely to change by Derby.

Sightseek 01-15-2007 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
Visually impressive.

However the allowance types did the 1m40yds in 1:39+ -- Hard Spun was 1:37 and change for the mile. Nothing riveting but it's only January. Decent pace and ran out well.

The bigger concern is that he looks to be a "need the lead" type and that's unlikely to change by Derby.

His Beyer came back somewhere in the 90 range.

I don't know about "needing the lead", nothing to me indicated that he was rank up there and he had a cool head about him. He's got a good way of going too, sort of glides across the ground.

todko 01-15-2007 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
His Beyer came back somewhere in the 90 range.

I don't know about "needing the lead", nothing to me indicated that he was rank up there and he had a cool head about him. He's got a good way of going too, sort of glides across the ground.

He's a solid horse. "Need the lead" types aren't necessarily rank -- and I didn't mean to imply that. Rather, he's going to the front and with other similar types in the field a race could set up for him to burn. In all his races he went to the front. Maybe he didn't need to rate because he was so superior. As he meets better competition and other horses improve his running style might go against him at 10 furlongs or even shorter distances.

I might actually be looking to bet against him if the right race comes up.

I wonder what figure Beyer gave the allowance horses who went 1m40yds in 1:39 and change?

Sightseek 01-15-2007 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
He's a solid horse. "Need the lead" types aren't necessarily rank -- and I didn't mean to imply that. Rather, he's going to the front and with other similar types in the field a race could set up for him to burn. In all his races he went to the front. Maybe he didn't need to rate because he was so superior. As he meets better competition and other horses improve his running style might go against him at 10 furlongs or even shorter distances.

I might actually be looking to bet against him if the right race comes up.

I wonder what figure Beyer gave the allowance horses who went 1m40yds in 1:39 and change?

At least it looks like he will be facing a horse of quality (although of a completely different running style) in Circular Quay soon. Should be interesting to see how that race shapes up.

Sightseek 01-15-2007 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
I wonder what figure Beyer gave the allowance horses who went 1m40yds in 1:39 and change?

Piety got a 97

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

Danzig 01-15-2007 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000
i just wanted to take a second to thank danzig188 and miraja2 for actually providing us with an interesting discussion about a derby contender they like without making any absurd predictions or declarations.
in this instance, i actually disagree with your analysis, because to me hard spun doesn't move in a way that makes me think he will be strong going 9+ furlongs against true g1/g2 competition. but regardless who is right, the colt is 4 for 4 so i can't blame you for liking him, but mainly i just appreciate your rational discussion, and most of all, your restraint.

you're welcome!

i try not to get too up on these guys. too big a letdown when they can't sustain the pace we always set for them.

it's always interesting from now til may. some people back one horse come hell or high water. some bounce from horse to horse after each prep is run. always fun!!


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