Lukas down to 40 horses
 

Lukas is scaling down (or maybe a lack of) his stable to 40 horses. He is going to have all them at Oaklawn and he is going to train them himself. He was quoted as saying that he likes Oaklawn because of the 3 year old program.

Lukas has taken a hit due to the deaths of W T Young and Bob Lewis and also the split from Padua. I think it is good to see Lukas back and sort of excited about an upcoming year. Not sure how good of stock he has but hopefully we will see him come the 1st Saturday in May with a KY Derby starter.

Link? I hope it's true because I've got friends working the backside there that would love a chance to work for him.

There was an article in the Cincinnati Enquirer about this on Sunday, I thought they said he was going to train 70 horses though...

Euro was correct, it is 40, scroll down to the bottom...

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...2250376/-1/all

I got the article from courier-journal.com since we get horrible racing news in Indy. Below is the link.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/...D=200661225002

He is not a youngster anymore. I know he loves what he does. Even if some do not agree with his tactics.

I agree. At 71 it is hard to have operations at multiple tracks. I think it is good for him and racing to have him scale down and be at one track.

I think it would be good for the welfare of horses for him to be gone.

hate to be "that guy" but i agree with Gander. Countless numbers of horses have had to end their careers short b/c of D. Wayne. While i respect him and what he's done for the sport, he has (IMO) ruined some awfully nice horses, and i rarely see much of his stock make it pass their 3 YO campaign. I think he preps them way to hard with / for triple crown races and there isn't much left of them by years end.

-bt-

lukas
 

that is ridiculous. shows complete lack of knowledge of lukas training program. lukas is anything but hard on a horse. he's one of the softest trainers around, which is also why he injures a lot of horses. if you watch lukas over the years he vascillates back and forth between soft training and somewhat toughter training. Lukas: "I do not work horses". lukas breezes them fairly slow every 8-10 days. does a few gallops in between at 18sec/f. and races them. that is about it. if you disbelieve the post read Ross Staaden's Winning Trainers on the subject. There is page after page of Lukas training logs. For the uninformed--it is wise to equate hard training with unsound horses, and soft training with trainers that injure horses. there's a large correlation.

lukas
 

rewrite part of that last post: equate sound horses with hard trainders--injured horses with soft trainers. anyone doubt it, i'll be glad to post the training of Nashua for his match race with swaps.

Times have changed a little since Swaps and Nashua ran. Nowadays every trainer out there will tell you that the harder you train them, the more likely they are to get hurt. There's no doubt about that and it's not even debatable. The only quetsion is how hard to train them to give them their best chance of winning without breaking them down. It's somewhat of a "catch 22". For example, if you have a good horse that has never run before, if you really want him to win first-time out, his best chance of winning will be if you give him some fast works. The problem is that if you work him fast, you are increasing the chances that the horse wil get hurt before he even makes his first start.

Wih regards to Lukas, he breaks down more horses than anyone. The numbers speak for themselves. He has more sore horses than anyone else. He runs his horses into the ground. He has a terrible reputation and that is why he has a very hard time getting owners these days.

So, I have -- what only some might consider -- an interesting question. How many people who have posted on this thread have a trainer's license? I for one volunteer that I don't have one. For that matter, who has real data -- real #'s -- to support the claims made here?

Look, I am not saying Wayne is hard or easy on his horses. I am on the backstretch everyday at Saratoga, and maybe a couple of times a week or so throughout the rest of the year -- and I am not stating anything as fact! Seems others are, so I would think they can back it up. However, I do question those who do defintively make claims such as this, especially when they appear to be stated as facts.

We all know that Lukas has spotted horses very aggressively. Whether it's him, the owner, a combination, who knows. Not anyone here I would think. However, I think there is a large leap to some of the other claims made here. I'd like to see the #'s that prove some of these claims.

Eric

My thoughts exactly. Since the good o'l boy network is not around any more (Padua, BB Lewis, Overbrook, etc.) he has been getting less and less horses.

Prime example of D. Wayne (who was my favorite trainer when i first started betting the horse): Going Wild; was overmatched by Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood (along with the rest of the field, but Going Wild did finish a DISTANT last). So what does Lukas do, hey let's take a shot at the Kentucky Derby, where not only Bellamy Road is but 18 other top 3 YO's in country are going to be. If my memory serves me correctly, only 2 horses came out of the 2005 Wood and went on to compete in the 2005 Derby, Bellamy Road and Going Wild. I'm pretty sure at the time Lukas had a incredible streak going of consecutive Derby entries (not sure how many, but it was broke last year i know that), so Going Wild ends up finishing 18th of 20. What good does that do for you or your horse (other than a notch on the breeding resume). Maybe he was getting heavy input from BB Lewis to enter the horse? I don't know the answer to that question, but i do know that that horse should have never been entered in that race. As for the present day, i couldn't tell you where Going Wild is.........anyone know?

-bt-

The numbers are staggering. People don't just make this stuff up. Some of the major insurers will not insure his horses because of the numbers.

So, does this mean you have the data, proof, etc.? Or is is true just because you say "people don't just make this stuff up"? On this new claim, regarding the insurance, I for one would be very interested in hearing more about this and seeing the proof as I am in the insurance business.

Let's see the numbers. I am sure there are numerous others here besides me who would like to see them.

Eric

I won't claim to have any real knowledge of the issue, but I do have the one good example of watching him (or his owners or someone...) ruin a potentially good horse.

Ex Caelis had the makings of a very talented horse early on and she was just terribly managed: spotted way over her head almost her entire career so far, and just got progressively worse and worse on the racetrack when she should have been a legitimate graded stakes contender.

Not sure what contributes to that overall, but it certainly didn't endear him to me any.

If you are that interested, then call some of the thoroughbred insurance companies. They have the data.

I don't know how many times Darrel Strawberry has been arrested for drugs. It may be 4 times, it may be 6 times, I have no idea. I don't know the exact number and I really don't care. I do know that Strawberry used to have a drug problem. I don't need to document how may times he was arrested to state that he had a problem.

Lukas breaks down so many horses that many insurance companies won't insure his horse. I don't have the numbers in front of me. I don't know what the exact numbers are. I do know that the numbers are extreme. If you really want to know the exact numbers, then call some insurance companies and find out.

Good point. I remember that horse as many others do too. Lukas has been known, according to the masses and people who truly have qualified opinions, to place horses over their head, very aggressively, etc. He has a reputation of wanting to be "at the big dance" so to speak. I don't know if that's true or not. Like I said, I don't know if the spotting of his horses are his doing, the owners, a combination, etc.

I think very often "perception" becomes the "reality", or things that are somewhat, sometimes, slightly true, etc. -- often become the norm, always true, the standard, etc.

I guess we will soon see -- the proof that is.

Eric

Lukas
 

Ross Staaden did an analysis of Lukas training of the late 1980s. A couple excerpts: "Does Wayne break down too many horses?
To answer this we would need to know the breed average and Wayn'e breakdown rates. This is not a simple thing to measure." (Staaden winds up "not" measuring or answering conclusively.) More excerpts: "Wayne may have a lot of breakdowns simply because he has a lot of horses. . .However, the track-watcher's consensus is that he DOES break down a lot of horses...I asked Greg Ferraro, a highly respected veterinarian who did Wayn'e work in Los Angeles: 'One of the Accusations that you hear all the time about Wayne is that he breaks heaps of horses down.' 'I think if you look at his percentage, he's probably somewhere in the middle.'
'So, he doesn't break heaps of horses down?'
'Not considering the number of horses he's got...I don't think his percentage is any worse than anybody else. No worse, certainly. I'd say he's average. Average. At least in my book."

Staaden's leaves the subject by speculating Lukas's breakdown rate might have something to do with the type of yearlings he buys-- precocious, fragile types. Wayne's yearling "type" is pictured in the book. I might agree somewhat. A few more interesting tidbits from the Book:
Steinlen's exercise program:
1/21 Santa anita Allowance: 3rd
3/12 Santa Anita Allowance: 7th
3/26 Santa Anita Allowance: W
4/10 Santa Anita Stakes W
5/1 Hollywood Stakes W
5/15 Hollywood stakes W
6/1 Walked
6/2 G
6/3 G
6/4 J
6/5 Worked 5/8
6/6 W
6/7 G
6/8/J
6/9G
6/10 G
6/11 W
6/12 G
6/13 Worked 3/4
6/14 W
6/15 J
6/16 G
6/17 J
6/18 G
6/19 Race Hollywoodd Stakes 8f Won
6/20 W
6/21 W
6/22 W
6/23 J
6/24 G
6/25 J
6/26 G
6/27 G
6/28 Worked 5/8
6/29 W
6/30 G
7/4 Hollywood Stakes 9f 2nd
8/14 Saratoga Stakes 9f 2nd
8/27 Saratoga Stakes 8f Won
Gallops are 16-18 seconds/f. Lukas works around 13 sec/f.
In Staaden's book are the exercise logs for all of Lukas's horses. Lukas trains similar to Mandella. Truth is all these trainers break everything down. Watch Mandella's DVD. In contrast: Nashua trained by S. Fitzimmons before Swaps Matchrace
8/4 3/4 mile in 1:17
8/6 7/8 mile in 1:37
8/9 3/4 mile in 1:15
8/12 7/8 mile in 1:34 4/5
8/15 easy 1/18 mile 2:20 2/5
8/28 Mile in 1:39 Rupert says times have changed and that every trainer would agree this sort of training breaks down horses. Which is it rupert. The soft training of lukas, or the hard training of Fitzimmons that breaks down horses???
8/31: Match race with Swaps 1 1/4 Mile. Won. 5 lengthy breezes in 9 days. Rupert says times ahve changed and every trainer would say this sort of training breaks down horses. Which is it rupert? Lukas soft training or Fiztsimmons hard training that breaks down horses.

Hopefully the betting public will fire on his horses so some nice overlays will occur.

Bring on Oaklawn!!!

I'm saying that nowadays horses don't hold up nearly as well as they did in the past. Nowadays, if you train them too hard or you run them too often, they won't last. That's all I'm saying and any good trainer will tell you the same thing.

And I have never heard anyone say that D Wayne is too easy on his horses. Quite to the contrary, everyone say the opposite. His own employess used to often times disobey him when he would leave town. They would take it easy on most of the really sore horses.

The biggest problem with D Wayne is that he usually won't stop on a horse even if the horse has a serious problem. That's the main problem with D Wayne. With most trainers, if they have a horse that's starting to get some swelling in an ankle, they're going to back off. Wayne won't back off. He won't turn a horse out until it's way too late.

With regard to Dr. Ferraro, what do you want him to say? Do you expect him to bite the hand that feeds him? The numbers speak for themselves. As I said before, I know that many of the biggest insurance companies will not insure horses that are trained by D Wayne. There are practically no other big-time trainers that have a problem getting insurance.

Lukas actually ran Going Wild on Derby Day (ran 18th of 20 in the Derby), Preakness Day (ran 14th of 14 in the Preakness), and Belmont Day (ran 6th of 8 in the Riva Ridge-now Woody Stephens sprint). He was 7th of 9 in the Amsterdam and 3rd of 7 in the KY Cup Sprint. He got some time off between September 2005 and May 2006 and he competed in some higher level optional claimers this spring/summer losing to horses like Discreet Cat (in that ones seasonal debut), Silver Wagon, Greeleys Galaxy, and Its No Joke. He found the winner's circle in Hoosier's Michael Schaeffer Mile Stakes at Hoosier on October 7 and in his last start he was 8th of 12 in the Ack Ack on the Breeders Cup undercard.

Lifetime : 23 – 4 – 4 – 3 - $323,346
2006 : 9 – 1 – 1 – 1 - $82,826
2005 :10 – 2 – 1 – 1 - $193,520
2004 : 4 – 1 – 2 – 1 - $46,900

Also makes me think back to the minimally talented Ten Cents a Shine, whom Lukas down the Derby trail after the horse finished 6th of 8 in the Fountain of Youth, 8th of 10 in the San Felipe, and 8th of 9 in the Blue Grass. He ran a surprising 8th of 16 in the Derby, but regressed to his form when running 9th of 10 in the Preakness. He went to Frankel after that and was last seen running in claiming races for Dale Romans (assume he's no longer with Romans after his split with Ken Ramsey). Also have to assume that the decisions to push TCAS were as much Ramsey's as they were Lukas' but that horse had no right to be starting in the Derby or Preakness...

i wish i had a dollar for every time this shows up...i knew as soon as this thread started this, and you, would show.

dwl is older, with up and comers stealing his thunder-especially those who trained under him, such as pletcher and mcglaughlin. it's a dog eat dog world out there, and dwl was at the top for years. YEARS. it's time he slowed down, altho he still shows flashes of the talent/brilliance that got him to the top...it happens to everyone. look at nascar for instance. richard petty wasn't called the king for nothing. he went downhill in the latter part of his career. happens to them all. nfl--brett favre. michael jordan pre-baseball was better than mj pro-baseball. it's life.

you're obviously not a lawyer. see, i was just on jury duty. it's not the prosecutors job to lay out a scenario and tell the defense to prove him wrong. he has to prove himself right, he has to PROVE a presumably innocent man is guilty. you have failed, in at least the last year, to show any proof to substantiate your claims. all well and good to post that you know something. it's not my job to prove you wrong. show us where this is coming from. just once. or please, stop putting it up, if you have nothing to show where it's coming from.....other than your own bias.

D. Wayne as trained alot I mean alot of other trainers thru the years. If he's so bad why oh why did these people train under him so long and not complain about it after they left his operation? I've heard a trainer or jockey complain about how Mr. Triple Crown trains'em. Lots of respect for the man. I'd turn mine over to him anyday. In with the New Blood and out with the old.

lukas
 

does lukas break down more than mandella? mclaughlin? pletcher? mcgaughey?
if, as rupert suggests, breakdowns are caused by breeding instead of training, why blame lukas for breaking down horses? what does it prove that some insurance company refuses to insure Lukas. I did not know it was the trainer that got the insurance. thought it was the owner.

So, I guess this means, simply put, that we are not going to see any proof, data, or any back up whatsoever to your claims, or anything factual for that matter.

I would think -- once again, simply put -- because you don't have it.

Eric

he's put this type of post up numerous times, here and elsewhere. never, ever, one iota of FACT to back it up.
puts me in a tenuous position as a non-lukas fan, but as a fan of people not making claims without any backup-regardless of who they are besmirching.

i'm telling you dahoss, rupe and i have been on opposite sides of this discussion numerous times. nowadays most times i just leave it. he knows what i want, and i know he has failed to produce....

dwl was/is reviled for being so successful. it's drifted away from him for the most part, now many gleefully attack his former pupil, todd pletcher. he's the top dog now, so it's his turn.

I'm not sure I would agree with that. Overall it seems that Pletcher is beloved on message boards and his defenders well outnumber his detracters. Do you honestly disagree with that?

Maybe I'm wrong.

If this was a jury trial and I was a prosecutor, I would make sure I had the data to present to the jury. But this is not a trial and I am not a prosecutor.

If you don't want to believe what I'm saying about Lukas, then don't believe it. It's fine with me. I try to give you guys some insights into the business. I have no idea why you always give me a hard time when it comes to Lukas. You obviously are a fan of his and you don't want to hear anything negative about him.

I don't think you care about the numbers. If I had the numbers and posted them, you would question the authenticity of the numbers. In the past, when you wanted corroboration from others in the business about what I was saying, even after you got the corroboration, that still wasn't good enough for you.

When I think about it, if this was a jury trial over the past couple of years, you have been presented with more than enough information from several witnesses including Honu, LBigDog, BCMile10, PP, and numerous others. They have all confirmed what I have said. If you think we're all full of it, that is your prerogative.

Maybe times have passed him by in age and other areas (fragility and overtraining issues) heck I dont know. But I do know he used to do things very right.

He has won everything in sight.

I would agree with you. I think there is a very different dynamic as to the fanfare, popularity, etc., but again, I would agree with you.

Eric

Well, I guess that Strawberry never had a drug problem if you can't tell me how many times he's been arrested for drugs.

If you don't want to belive what I'm telling you about Lukas, then don't believe it. But if you ask anyone else in the business, they will tell you the same thing as I'm telling you.