Annual Thoro-Graph Promo (Free)
 

A reminder that eternally generous Jerry Brown and the Thoro-Graph Team runs their annual free figures/info promotion 12/26-12/31 again this year... It's done more as a thank you to existing users than to bring in new customers, but is a great chance to see if you would like the 'figs' and if they can help you at the windows...

Just register at "TG" and you can enjoy all the 'sheets' you want during the promo. You do have to fill in the registration with billing info for down the road if you start to buy cards, but don't let that intimidate you.. No one will have a problem with having anything charged to you fraudulently.

HERE'S THE TG WEBSITE: http://www.thorograph.com/index.php

Scavs and I, who are both involved with TG, and likely Randall, Mike, NC Tony, Hooves, etc., will be around to help anyone unfamiliar with TG performance figures and how to interpret them, so it's a rare opportunity to learn how they work and how to apply them in your capping and wagering.

I've always used the form. It's a habit i've been meaning to break. But sometimes change is hard and I get intimidated easily.

Show me the way of TG, friends.

A reminder that the TG info is out there daily for everyone to use and enjoy..

Won't be shy or embarassed telling you that it helped catch the P4 at SA yesterday for a modest investment by assisting in the elimination of extraneous horses. Won't always give you the winner, but can really help narrow the "likely's"...

Its a great offer and a great handicapping tool.

Started downloading TG yesterday. I only use it occaisionally during the year but during the offer I run wild with it.

Have looked at them in the past...seem a bit out of the realm for some of us "intellectually challenged"

They're my fav tool. When I allow myself to enjoy a bit of a gamble.

Anyone that is using them for the first time, or first time in a while, feel free to post questions...

Scavs, NC Tony, myself or someone will be happy to try to help you get a feel for them...

90 pages a card. Jesus.

Use the thoroquick option then...

I find it easier anyway -- more or less, all of the information I need is on the quick sheets -- unless I want to go back to another year for a horse....

you know regarding this I have this opinion.

Thoroquick is good for number power, hard to read patterns. But when you have the full sheet, you have the ability to read the pattern alot better, as far as layoffs. Just something I noticed. either way, the information is golden to a handicapper.

TR,

Funny, I've come to prefer the Quicks to the full sheet.. Like the concise Pattern Boxes, etc. and get a good feel for recent fig arcs..

and don't have to go through an entire ream of paper if you ever want to take them with you.....

which with no account wagering here....is sort of a big deal!

On a sidenote, Steve -- are you or anyone else able to explain the patterns they have where it says like (Top-Pair-Off) (12-12-17) and how on earth we are supposed to use that? I've read the TG explanation of it about 50 times and still don't get it.

It's one of the very few things I don't understand on the sheets -- is it helpful to understand? How can we apply it to capping?

True enough Bri.. Plus for me, I typically have to cap certain things quickly and frequently on short notice on the radio, and the Thoro-Quick is a great "at a glance" tool.

the voodoo works...lol

I agree Steve, but for some reason I have had more success using the full sheet then the quick, as far as pattern reading. I think it is because the pattern is more defined on the full sheet as far as dates, compared to the quicks where you have to 'space' the dates yourself. With me still relatively new (1.5 years-2) with them, I am still learning. The quicks are much easier to read though, as far as number power and recentcy.

Ok, lets see the best way to explain this. The first race a horse ever runs is essentially his top. the 2nd race, if he runs a better number, he runs a 'new' top. Lets say the horse moves backward a little, it is considered as an 'off' number from his top. If the horse moves back ALOT, it is considered an 'x'

The horses' effective top is his best number that he run, and the idea is to find horses that will run new tops or find the pattern to where a horse is progessing to his/her top.

a little more clear, I probably just confused it even more

Bri,

The "Thoro-Pattern" is a relatively new analysis. It is a "predictor" based on a universe of horse performance data. It basically summarizes what horses that have run the same set of figures might do in this situation based on the pattern.

For instance, you cited a 12-12-17 "set" which was a "Top-Pair-Off" series of performances for that horse. The "Thoro-Pattern" is telling you that historically, when horses run a range of numbers like that (12-12-17/Top-Pair-Off) they do the following in their subsequent start:

TOP: 14% (14% of the time they run a new Top best figure)
PAIR: 26% (26% of the time they Pair up to their best figure)
OFF: 38% (38% of the time the run a figure 1-3 points Off their best fig)
X: 22% (22% of the time they run a figure 3+ points off their best)

In other words, after running a Top-Pair-Off, it is only 14% likely that the horse is now going to run BETTER than that 12 (which is his Top)...

Adding the Pair and Top tells you that there is a total opportunity of 40% (14+26) that the horse will run a 12 or better...

Adding the Off and X together tells you that the horse is 60% likely to run WORSE than a 13 and higher.

If you see there are horses in the race running 8's and 9's, you can feel good that this horse with the 12-12-17 is NOT going to jump up and beat you and you can eliminate him. If the horses in the race have been running 20's and 22's, and you can't see one that has a reason to improve, you can feel good that your 12-12-17 horse is going to run a race that should make him the most likely winner.

Does that give you a better understanding of it?

Brian, what he said.... :)

Let me ask you this Steve, how often are you using the Thoro-Pattern numbers? As many know, I have to try and eliminate as much frustration from my handicapping because I am TILT city if I get frustrated. I have found that I rely on them way too much and look back and say to myself "He had a 65% chance to top or pair and I can't even get that" Thus I then get to visit Tilt City

i do prefer the quik sheets...i prefer a horse's more recent performance as opposed to comparing them to a year earlier. the quiks are clear to me and i want to avoid the "paralysis of analysis"...in other words the quiks give me a feel and that's the best tool for me.

TR,

I give them a tacit glance. I'm much more interested in the trainer's pattern under specific circumstances (3rd off layoff; 2nd lifetime start; 3rd start as 3yo, etc..) than I am with the "universe". Since we want horses that are possible to GO AGAINST universal history and hence should be a price, it's not that important to me what "most" horses do as embodied by the Thoro-Pattern.

very much so, it was sort of what I thought --

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

So you use those numbers that are always at the end of the track download. I have NEVER looked at those. I might have to start getting into those a little more.

Yes

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

Exactly Steve, when you see a horse that you "know" is live, at a price, you have arrived...The ferocious Aq battler Like Now in the Gotham is an example. he was 42-1 , had the form cycle, and won that tough race earlier this year.

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

i'm confused about that as well -- what if the horse ran a 1 three years ago?

Does the "top" percentage speak to running a 1 or a 5? The percentage line won't show that 1 as his "prev top" -- there were several at HAW yesterday like that.

I 'think' the answer to this is Yes. Steve will be able to confirm

26% chance that he runs a number better then 5^2

Get Shake you Down's numbers, which shoudl be available for today. and See what his 'Prev Top' number is. I think that should be his career top

where was entered and in what race ?

Just checked it and that is correct, he was actually running very well early this year though. He had a 1% chance of running a career best today if he didn't scratch!

ok, so then the percentage associated with the likelihood of running a "top" refers to the single best number ever?

just clarifying.

I received an email that i thought stated that i can have free downloads on 2 days; 12/26 and 1/1 ...?

between now and the 31st everything is free. just go as if you're going to buy it and the charge should be $0

Actually I think I misread it. He actually ran -4 several years back but ran a 0^1 at the start of January which is what is listed as his previous top. So there must be some sort of limit for how far it goes back for the previous top.

For what it's worth, I've been using Thoro-sheets for about 2 years. Initially, to save paper and ink, I used the Thoro-quick, but I have since switched to the full sheets (print 2 sides, uses 1/2 the paper), it's just easier to get a feel for the patterns, spacing, etc... The pattern percentages are a guide, only use them to cement your opinion one way or the other. As I told Steve a few weeks ago, just when I think I have mastered reading and interpreting these things, I have an o-fer, and have to go back to the drawing board. But I plan on down-loading a bunch for Saturday.

Completely agree golfer. The second I start struting like a peacock, I GET SMOKED the next day.