Hollywood Futurity - Grade 1
 

Hollywood Park - December 16th, 2006 - Race 9
Hollywood Futurity - Grade: 1
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:35 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Purse: $250,000
Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: All Weather Track
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Silent Soul (KY) 2 Colt 121 Garrett K. Gomez
2 Notional (CA) 2 Colt 121 Corey S. Nakatani
3 Unusual Suspect (CA) 2 Colt 121 David Cohen
4 Stormello (KY) 2 Colt 121 Kent J. Desormeaux
5 Whatsthescript (IRE) 2 Colt 121 Isaias D. Enriquez
6 Liquidity (KY) 2 Colt 121 David Romero Flores
7 Roman Commander (KY) 2 Colt 121 Alex O. Solis
8 Principle Secret (KY) 2 Colt 121 Victor Espinoza
9 Senior (KY) 2 Colt 121 Agapito Delgadillo
10 Belgravia (KY) 2 Colt 121 Julien R. Leparoux

Watch out for Unusual Suspect here.

Belgravia is free money, and will probably win the Triple Crown

I really like Silent Soul and Stormello to seperate themselves from the group.

I have 3 things to say about the Triple Crown comment:

1) L
2) O
3) L

If you're looking for the TC winner, you better start reading the Florida Derby Noms. ;)

That does it. An addition to my ignore list.

--Dunbar

I don't know what happened to Principle Secret in Kentucky but he's better than what he showed. I am expecting him to win this unchallenged.

Anyone know when Baffert is bringing EZ Warrior back?
Thought he might have him ready for this race.

kind of like Belgravia myself.

I like SILENT SOUL.... hopefully he follows in his sires footsteps...

Anyone know anything about Whatsthescript?

First started in Europe and since has won the Pinjara & Generous S.

I was looking at the PP's and seems kinda logical to me...

He worked yesterday.

Agree 100% that he's better than what he showed in KY. Guessing it was bleeding or something along that order...

U should already know that I don't throw out races. I don't accept excuses. That race certainly put up a red flag for me about this horse. But at the same time I'm believing my eyes about that last one, I'm believing what I saw in his first races. If I see Kobe go 5-27 tonight, I won't stop believing he's a great player. Off days happen sometimes. I'm hoping Principle Secret reverts to his previous and expecting that because of his last, I'll get a decent price.

Sometimes you have to. The eyes DO deceive sometimes. Let's say today's race is a sprint on a dry track. If the last race was in slop, or routing or on grass, its irrelevant. What if the horse was racing 5 wide against a strong rail bias? Or a horse finished badly because it dueled hard for 6f (i.e. Principle Secret)? Go strictly by the last race and you end up on too many underlays.

BTW, Principle Secret isn't the only California horse who's run poorly in another state w/out race day Bute.

I can't remember the exact reason but after the race there was indeed a physical excuse, something happened to him that made him rank and try and run away with the rider and look bad.
Im not saying I like him in this spot, but the excuse certainly sounded valid to me. Not that it makes him a better horse than he is.

I also like Stormello, but Principle Secret will run a better race

This race has a fantastic field. It is really hard to handicap this race in my opinion. It is hard to knock Principle Secret and Stormello and it is hard to look past Belgravia. Notional and Usual Suspect are improving colts. Should be a good race. Be interresting to see if Stormello and Princple Secret have improved since their last race. If I was going to wager on the race, it would be Principal Secret or Liquidty.

See him????

Dicksie IS Kobe.

I thought Principle Secret got gashed up pretty good at the start of the BC Juvie, and that's why he took off.

Of course I don't agree with this at all.

Circumstances dictate outcomes A LOT in horse racing. In my opinion, both Stormello and Principle Secret are horses who will be more effective (possibly far more so) sprinting, as opposed to routing.

Anyone who followed the 2006 Oak Tree meet knows how ridiculiously kind to speed that track was all meeting long. I believe that both Principle Secret and Stormello were carried to a 1-2 finish in the Norfolk by the nature of the way that racetrack was playing.

Stormello obviously running the better race of the two.

In the Breeders Cup Juvie, Princible Secret and Stormello would set ABSURDLY fast fractions for the distance, while racing 1-2 through the first two pace calls. Meanwhile, the horses racing 13th and 14th (Last & 2nd to Last) through the pace calls....would end up 1st and 2nd at the wire, with the 15/1 shot double digit length winner, running a 108 Beyer figure in victory. The fastest Beyer ever earned in a Breeders Cup Juvie by quite a bit.

Basically, Princible Secret and Stormello both do probably deserve another go at a Grade 1 route race in Southern California...because they ran 1-2 in the Norfolk, which obviously is the last major So. Cal 2yo route stake.

However, these two horses both played a key role in making Street Sense look like the 2nd coming in the Breeders Cup. Both of these horses are totally bred to be sprinters, and I believe both of them will eventually find their way off the "Derby Trail" and on, maybe the King's Bishop trail or something like that.

* Principle Secrets sire won all four of his races sprinting, and failed both times he ran a route of ground. His dam was a sprinter/miler type who is kin to a Graded Stakes winning sprinter.

* Stormello is by Stormy Atlantic out of a really bad Carson City race mare. The female family is totally laced with many useful sprinting stakes types.

I'm not betting the Hollywood Futurity myself...but if I was, I'd look beyond the 1-2 finishers in the Norfolk, and probably for an off-the-pace type.

Thats what it was Cakes, thats what he said, I couldn't remember exactly what it was but thats it.
He got stepped on and was bleeding and in pain, its why he was rank and then stopped to a walk. You can indeed draw a line through that one.

5 Whatsthescript (IRE) 2 Colt 121 Isaias D. Enriquez

and


10 Belgravia (KY) 2 Colt 121 Julien R. Leparoux

are the two that I think the win should come from. Despise the jock on the 5,and the post of the 10.It is hard to give stuff(jock,post etc.) up in this game.They got away with using this jock 2x already. 3x is really pushing it.If Frenchy can save some ground on Belgravia,he will be very tough (at bad odds.) Have zero idea what Notional will do.I saw no excuse last time to stop.Any reported?

I am as much of a trip guy as anyone else.Although he was forced to go a pretty good pace in the Norfolk,it wasn't nose to nose,or head to head.I tend to think he got caught in that because he is a 1 turn horse,but I could be wrong.Most of the time,the truth lies somewhere in between.So,maybe he can get 2 turns better if he is kept covered up until coming out of the 2nd turn.I favor others,but do think this is gunna be a real good 1 turn horse.

I've been saying for years that I need new glasses.

Kinda liking Liquidity a little in this race. His two races after his impressive MSW seem a little forced and now with 40 days off and 3 really good works, and the blinkers, seems like a good wager

It would appear that the race is loaded with speed and should be fast early. But then, how often do you see that and all the riders of the speedballs grab a hold of their mounts as they go :48 to the half? I think that's less likely w/2YOs, however. Some still don't know how to rate.

i don't think you should throw out a race just because a supposed good horse didn't win. i saw several posters say that bernardinis loss to invasor was a toss--but he ran his usual race.
however, some do need throwing out, such as afleet alex's horrible race at oaklawn. a lot of scoffing when the trainer announced that they found a lung infection. he never ran another bad race after that.
premium taps loss after kent d tried to commit a murder/suicide would qualify imo as a toss for him. his next two efforts bear that out.

Just saw the race replay of the '91 edition of this race, this is when I fell in love with AP Indy. His running style of "head down and grinding" coming down the stretch was a favorite of mine. He was my Derby pick in 1992 and I was very disappointed when he scratched the morning of the race.

Exacta and tri boxes with:

Silent Soul
Whatsthescript
Liquidity
Principle Secret

Im actually going to have to agree with this. Nothing about their pedigrees warrant a look for anything over a mile to a mile and sixteenth.

That sums up the problem I have with going by pedigrees. I'm not sure how u can say nothing in their pedigrees warrants even a look when those same two horses have already run 1-2 in Southern California's biggest race of the year so far for 2yo's at the same distance as today's race. There's an old saying in sports that says u should always consider someone when they are being asked to do something they've done before, especially when facing those that have never been asked to do it. This isn't saying that u have to like them for the win but not even warranting a look?

Hell, Stormello is one of my picks... but anything over 1 1/16 against colts who are maturing at this time of the year and who will relish some distance is a big challenge.

"Warrant" may have been a little harsh... obvious a horse on an easy lead can go a little father if he's not pressed, but I just see this race not going that way.

I should probably take back "warrant a look"... but every year colts like this garner accolades and Derby hopes but usually fall to the way side. Like Drugs said, King Bishop types.

Going to bet Principal Secret with Whatsthescript.

Lets Go SENIOR!!!

Stormello and Belgravia will be so far ahead of the rest here.