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-   -   Aqueduct Conveyor Belt (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7558)

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 11:32 AM

Aqueduct Conveyor Belt
 
It's still going!

what a mess.

oracle80 12-07-2006 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanSooner
It's still going!

what a mess.

Count me out again today thanks. Think I'd rather wager on the world wide tiddlywinks finals.
This is hysterical!!!
Anyone see the 2nd race as well?
leader was looking for a soft comfy place to lie down and rest and still kept going.
John Philip Sousa playing the background as these parades continue.
BA DA DA DA BA DA DA DA DA DUM!!!

eurobounce 12-07-2006 12:07 PM

Oracle, can you remember a time where it was this bad at The Big A? I can remember times at Keeneland and Turfway where it was absurd for like a 4 day period.

SniperSB23 12-07-2006 12:07 PM

I never play Aqueduct in the winter so am a bit confused here. Is it that hard to figure out who is going to the front? Shouldn't everyone be loving the opportunity to make money by just figuring out which horse is going to get to the lead? Can't you beat the takeout just by being able to toss any horse without early speed? What am I missing?

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 12:14 PM

There were plenty of horses yesterday that figured to be part of the pace, yet the jockeys took hold and sat.. and sat.. and sat.. and finished 2nd or 3rd.

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I never play Aqueduct in the winter so am a bit confused here. Is it that hard to figure out who is going to the front? Shouldn't everyone be loving the opportunity to make money by just figuring out which horse is going to get to the lead? Can't you beat the takeout just by being able to toss any horse without early speed? What am I missing?


Like most things involved with making money at the races, it's MUCH easier said than done. First of all, the inside speed bias comes into play more in two turn routes, where ground loss eliminates horses, and the inside advantage and strength emboldens leaders. However, knowing who is going to clear to the lead can be tricky, as it was in yesterday's feature, where riders trying to maximize their mount's chances would certainly have ridden more aggressively early, and Barcolo would not have cleared so easily to the lead. Are the riders as poor and stupid as they seemed? Perhaps, but it is certainly hard to believe.

What I am saying is that finding the " inside speed " can be tricky and elusive and while abstractly hearing about biases sounds easy it is not. What an inside bias really does is provide profitable opportunities for the future. So, I say bet carefully, do a lot of watching and note taking, and load up for an even track.

SniperSB23 12-07-2006 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Like most things involved with making money at the races, it's MUCH easier said than done. First of all, the inside speed bias comes into play more in two turn routes, where ground loss eliminates horses, and the inside advantage and strength emboldens leaders. However, knowing who is going to clear to the lead can be tricky, as it was in yesterday's feature, where riders trying to maximize their mount's chances would certainly have ridden more aggressively early, and Barcolo would not have cleared so easily to the lead. Are the riders as poor and stupid as they seemed? Perhaps, but it is certainly hard to believe.

What I am saying is that finding the " inside speed " can be tricky and elusive and while abstractly hearing about biases sounds easy it is not. What an inside bias really does is provide profitable opportunities for the future. So, I say bet carefully, do a lot of watching and note taking, and load up for an even track.

Thanks, maybe I'll give it a try Saturday and learn the hard way.

SCUDSBROTHER 12-07-2006 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I never play Aqueduct in the winter so am a bit confused here. Is it that hard to figure out who is going to the front? Shouldn't everyone be loving the opportunity to make money by just figuring out which horse is going to get to the lead? Can't you beat the takeout just by being able to toss any horse without early speed? What am I missing?

An anti-speed bias is easier to cap for.With a speed bias,the known speed gets pounded by the bettors,and if they don't break,you usually can't tell who will.Whoever it is,"They Gone," and so is your dough.

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 12:31 PM

Aqueduct 3rd, another two turn race, and the beat goes on.

ArlJim78 12-07-2006 12:40 PM

I'm reading this thread and wondering why people are so struck by this fact this year. To me this is always my impression of the Aqueduct inner. Is the consensus that its much worse this year?

I have always looked at it as a matter of finding the horse that will make an easy lead before the turn and then say goodnight, its over. there will not be any passing.

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I'm reading this thread and wondering why people are so struck by this fact this year. To me this is always my impression of the Aqueduct inner. Is the consensus that its much worse this year?

I have always looked at it as a matter of finding the horse that will make an easy lead before the turn and then say goodnight, its over. there will not be any passing.

The idea that Aqueduct's inner is a super inside speedway is somewhat of a myth and it has been closer to even for the most part during the course of most meetings.

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 12:54 PM

sprints too

ArlJim78 12-07-2006 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The idea that Aqueduct's inner is a super inside speedway is somewhat of a myth and it has been closer to even for the most part during the course of most meetings.

To me at least, its more than just a myth. I have always noticed a tendancy for an advantage going to the lead horses, more so than on most other tracks.

oracle80 12-07-2006 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
To me at least, its more than just a myth. I have always noticed a tendancy for an advantage going to the lead horses, more so than on most other tracks.

Its been a myth Jim, been watching it for many years and that long stretch(longest stretch in NY) stops a lotta speed.
This is something just unreal, that track super has to go. I'm sorry but he needs to go, he cant take care of turf or dirt.

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
This is something just unreal, that track super has to go. I'm sorry but he needs to go, he cant take care of turf or dirt.


You're quite the reactionary.

What he needs to do is maintenance on the course and get it back to even.

You're like an ancient English despot........." off with their heads! "

Cajungator26 12-07-2006 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're quite the reactionary.

What he needs to do is maintenance on the course and get it back to even.

You're like an ancient English despot........." off with their heads! "

LMFAO! He is like that! :D

oracle80 12-07-2006 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're quite the reactionary.

What he needs to do is maintenance on the course and get it back to even.

You're like an ancient English despot........." off with their heads! "

Guilty as charged.

oracle80 12-07-2006 02:25 PM

6th and 7th are just as funny.
Wire to conveyor belt wire.
This track super couldnt be the superintendant of a ****ing ant farm.
Larry, Darryl and Darryl with three shovels and a truck of dirt could do better than this guy.

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 02:40 PM

makes me enjoy watching them fold up on the front on poly ;)

oracle80 12-07-2006 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanSooner
makes me enjoy watching them fold up on the front on poly ;)

I'm not gonna go that far but this guy apparently hasnt figured out that hes laid brick and mortar on the rail.
What a maroon.

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
What a maroon.



Sorry....but I just couldn't help myself.

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 02:46 PM

"rips through a quarter in 23 and 1 !!" I love durkin

TitanSooner 12-07-2006 02:47 PM

that one takes the cake

blackthroatedwind 12-07-2006 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanSooner
that one takes the cake


I couldn't agree more. That was totally ridiculous. But, I give CC credit. I guess when he wants to get out of the gate he can.

oracle80 12-07-2006 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanSooner
that one takes the cake

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the most ridicuous thing I ever saw.
I haven't made a play there since Saturday, Thank God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm watching and laughing.
If I had been playing, I'd be in a straight jacket.
Fair Grounds my man, Fair Grounds.

philcski 12-07-2006 03:13 PM

write these horses down as good performances against the bias:
Diana Rose
For What Its Worth
Sheza Gotta Secret
Appealing Secret
Karakorum Tuxedo
Lethal Weapon
Against the Grain (aptly named)
Ms Emma

oracle80 12-07-2006 03:15 PM

LOL!!!
The last was pretty funny as well. Thats like, 8 wire jobs and one who was a head off the lead at the 1/4 pole.
yawn.

Linny 12-07-2006 03:26 PM

Race 5 was won by a horse dueling for the lead, the rest were pure wire jobs.
Whats tough is that as the jocks start to ride the bias, you see horses who have never been anyplace near the lead being ridden like quarter horses out of the gate. if they make the lead, they can win, if they are forced to chase they are taken so far out of their usual game that they often falter when challenged and run far worse than they should.

philcski 12-07-2006 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
LOL!!!
The last was pretty funny as well. Thats like, 8 wire jobs and one who was a head off the lead at the 1/4 pole.
yawn.

so be observant, and take advantage of horses that were compromised. think of it as a positive...

oracle80 12-07-2006 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
so be observant, and take advantage of horses that were compromised. think of it as a positive...

Oh I am!!!
When teh track evens out, think of the overbet bias riders who show big wins who will fold!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think of the closers/stalkers with bad lines who will be dismissed at prices!!!!!
Of course, thats assuming we ever get a fair track again.

philcski 12-07-2006 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Oh I am!!!
When teh track evens out, think of the overbet bias riders who show big wins who will fold!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think of the closers/stalkers with bad lines who will be dismissed at prices!!!!!
Of course, thats assuming we ever get a fair track again.

the best betting opportunities around in these days of sharp players...
i've added all of the runners from today that i feel may have been compromised to my database. i'll try to post when they run back.

Dunbar 12-07-2006 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
write these horses down as good performances against the bias:
Diana Rose
For What Its Worth
Sheza Gotta Secret
Appealing Secret
Karakorum Tuxedo
Lethal Weapon
Against the Grain (aptly named)
Ms Emma

Thanks, Phil.

--Dunbar


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