Delta Jackpot takes on importance this year
 

This years Delta jackpot is now graded(grade 3). Its only November about to turn December but this race is a big deal now.
With 1 million in purse money, the winner is a sure thing to get into the Derby on graded earnings, and the runner up will be as well. The third place finisher will get 100 grand on his way towards being in the top 20.
I suspect that sometime in late April, someone with a sharp late bloomer is gonna get denied by a horse who runs 1-2-3 in this race, who does nothing since then.

This is further reason to have a few 2y old races under your saddle. Foundation & money!

Yeah I mean, its not much of a field but if you run 2nd not only do you get the 200 grand but you are as good as in for the Derby earnings.

I really hope this leads to a reform of the Derby selection system. It is ridiculous that 2nd in this race is worth more than 2nd in the Wood Memorial.

That was the point my posting of this thread.
Can you imagine a late bloomer running a good 2nd in the Wood and missing out on the Derby to one of these horses who runs 2nd at Delta?

For that matter whats to prevent the Sheikhs from boosting the purse in the UAE Derby up to 4 mill so that even the 4th horse would make 200 grand and be eligible? I mean most of the horses in that race belong to them anyway, they get most of their own purse money back as it is.
You'd have the UAE derby 4th place finisher getting a spot over the runnerup in the Wood. And don't laugh, it could happen.
This system needs an overhaul very badly.

I actually suggested almost the exact same thing a couple weeks ago, the Sheikhs upping it to $10 million and structuring it such that they guarantee the top five enough earnings to get in the Derby. If their own horses are winning the money back the majority of the time then it really doesn't matter what they raise the purse to. After that discussion here was the rough draft solution I came up with:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6688

If we as fans can see this why cant the owners and trainers of promising 2yr olds use this race to tip=toe to the derby. Its not like they arent offering a just reward. Its only my opinion but the high profile NY,Socal and Ky owners and trainers cant lower thereselve to run at a lowly So La track.

Derby or no Derby, grade or no grade I can think of a million reasons to run in this race. Alot of people with a decent 2yo in late fall get "Derby Fever" but honestly, what are the odds of getting there? I say, make a bit of money now if you can with a healthy colt. What iis the average winning BSF for this race? Nice 2yo allowance races in NY or KY require upper 80's to lower 90's to win. Will the Jackpot winner break this barrier?

I've got no sympathy for any " late bloomer " that doesn't get in due to earnings. I'll take my chances that the truly deserving will make it and only ridiculous trainers that never run their horses will risk missing the big dance with a legit contendor.

The ones that belong will dance the dances and get the earnings.

I havnt seen the entries or nomomees but I bet Assmusen has something in here. Suprising that Going Balistic didnt run here other the the previous week-end.

Suprised Baffert has two entered

1 1 Xchanger Bravo J Shuman Mark 122 0 L 6-1
2 2 Malt Magic Espinoza V Baffert Bob 117 0 L 20-1
3 3 Scatter the Tak Meche D J Blasi Scott 117 0 L 12-1
4 4 Go Poppa Fooze Theriot H J II Norman Cole 119 0 L 9-2
5 5 Officer Rocket (GB) Hebert T J Holthus Robert E 122 0 L 7-2
6 6 Ice Man Cometh Bejarano R Violette Richard A Jr 117 0 L 15-1
7 7 Mistycal Light Hernandez B J Allen Randy 117 0 L 30-1
8 8 Birdbirdistheword Albarado R J McPeek Kenneth G 119 0 L 3-1
9 9 Pirates Deputy Gomez G K Baffert Bob 119 0 L 8-1
10 10 Freesgood Desormeaux K J Currin William L 119 0 L 6-1

officer rocket for sure anyone going to tucson next week?

I love betting that place. What is the stretch, like 300 feet?

I wouldn't count out Xchanger, especially with that 1 hole he drew.

This is the horse I like as well. I wont be betting this race because I do not know much about that track down there. It does seem to have some tight turns. And isnt it going to be around 3 turns? But one horse I know I dont like is Officer Rocket.

It is actually only 2 turns, but run out of a chute I think?

I believe you are correct. Thanks for the info.

Delta Fun Facts.
 

* I used to go to Delta when I lived in Houston circa 1980.

* Home track of Hallowed Dreams a LA bred who won 16 straight races.

* In 1990, Sylvester Carmouche finished first in a two-turn race started at the 1/8 pole which was run in very heavy fog. Only problem was that he stopped his horse just out of the gate and started "riding" when the rest of the field was coming around the stretch turn. Ole Sly got a 10 year vacation for that ride and served eight years. He was, ironically, Hallowed Dreams regular jock.

Here's a link to the fog race.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...57C0A966958260

The vote to suspend Carmouche was 7-1. I wonder who that 1 person was that voted against the suspension and the reasoning.

Overhauling Derby Eligibility
 

I would do it to resemble something like how the top seven horses get in the Breeders Cup races. Make up a point system for graded stake races. This should reward the horses who consistently perform in the top two and three year old races before the Derby. Im sure there might be a horse or two who will get enough points as a two year old, but do nothing as a three year old. No system is without its flaws.


Anyone else have some input on this?

My suggestion would be a point system. Graded earnings are worth points but G1's worth more than G2's etc. Also route races would count for more than sprints and 3yo races would be worth more than 2yo races.

Honestly, I really don't think the system is flawed right now, as long as owners are fair and don't take advantage of it. The owner of a speedy sprinter with no route graded earning but plenty of 2yo form and $$$ in sprints could prevent a contender from getting in. This just doesn't happen that often.
For the most part, the horses in the Derby are the ones that belong there and the ones "kept out" by the rules (RHT for example) are usually out for a reason. Lets face it, every trainer knows the rules. If they skip races and cherry pick their spots or play games with the colt's schedule, they run the risk of being bumped.

Only in Louisiana.;)

There are all sorts of ways you can use to come up with the Derby field. However, there really hasnt been a horse that was left off that really had a shot at winning the derby. If the horse does get left off because of earning, then it is doubtful that the horse would have enough points earned.

Well with such expertise on the sport.......can you please tell us why you "don't like" Officer Rocket in this race? You sound very confident. Might I ask what your opinion is based on?

Well it is easy to pick against 1 horse in such a large field. But I will give you my reasoning as to why I do not like him in this spot. I think the distance is going to be a little too far for him. I also do not think his race at Arlington was all that good. It was 1 mile in the slop and he dead heated for first to Got The Last Laugh. His Iroquois race was not all that spectacular. He is facing some good horses in here with Xchanger and Birdbirdistheword.

Well, In reply to your Arlington qoute, I see that your "Top 4 2 y.o." pick was Street Sense.......Well, enough said. We know who lost to Officer Rocket's lousy performance in that race! As far as the Iroquois, you do know that the horse flipped his soft palate in the race and has since had a myectomy. That MIGHT explain his fifth place finish. Also, have you seen his latest works? His last work was three-quarters in 1:11 and change.

Taking this a little personally......aren't ya?

Anything you want to tell us?

No, not at all. I am just giving my 2 cents! Nothing personal. I love to read this message board......don't post very often unless I feel that something needs further explanation. We'll all see how this turns out tommorow. :D

First of all the race at Arlington was in the slop and there is no way i would ever take Street Sense in the slop. But yes, he is my top 2 year old. But the slop is not for him. The race was not that good at all in my opinion for any of the horses involved. I know he flipped his soft palate and had the myectomy. His works have been ok. I like how you mention just one work. He also worked 6 furlongs in 1:16 and 5 furlongs in 1:01 as well. I think that the distance is what is going to get him. We shall see come Saturday.

He's actually my choice for the win in there, so I'm with ya on this one.

Amen.

My idea has always been that the 1-2 finishers in the Arkansas, Santa Anita, and Florida Derbies, as well as the 1-2 finishers in the Wood and Blue Grass get automatic berths. That gives u 10 horses. The next four would be based on earnings as a 3yo after u get the automatic qualifiers. If any of those 14 drop out, the next one on the list makes it.

I guess I was right with Officer Rocket. Was in contention and then just folded like a cheap suit. I know he was bumped and then was rushed up. But he lost by like a mile. I just dont think horse is a two turn horse.

Well I was wrong! I guess McPeek & Baffert have two for the Derby next year, by earnings anyway. At least my three came in together. Only instead of 1-2-3 they were 5-6-7.

He just never looked comfortable. I don't think that he's going to be a two-turn star, but I think he'll turn out to be one of the better of his generation.

He never really settled last night.

Touche! As metiioned in another post, he just didn't look comfortable. I wish they could find this horse a "Jock" and stick w/ him as well. Euro, you got me on this one. I think Officer Rocket will still be a horse to watch out for during the Oaklawn meet. He could also use a nice break. He left his stable at the Spires Monday morning. "Vanned" to Oaklawn......left for Delta Downs on the 28th. Now headed back home to Oaklawn. Time will tell.

altho the earnings system is flawed, they have to have some way to limit starters. and of course any way they did it, there would be flaws and arguments against. hell, all these years they had the rules to get in the bc races, and people still complained.
everyone knows the rules--they need to plan accordingly. certainly this million dollar race was available to anyone who was interested.
also, a more 'important' race doesn't necessarily guarantee a better quality performer come bc day. look at the bluegrass stakes recently. then there's tapits wood memorial. just because it's an historic race, and not an upstart like the jackpot, doesn't really mean it will generate a better or deeper field.

The only issue is with this is that you are giving recent history more credit then past history. What they do as 2 year olds should be consider, also earlier in the year. Ideally, I would love to have the option to use a race as a tune up like they did with Monarchos and run my eyeballs out in the Derby, the above and you won't be able to do that.

The Kentucky Derby Entry thing seems to be one of those things that is very broken, but a fair and equal way to figure it out hasn't come to the forfront

What horse has been left out the past 4-5 years that anyone here feels had a solid shot?

Rock Hard Ten and although the way that Barbaro ran it wouldn't have mattered, but SunRiver certainly could have hit the board.