3/27 (GP): Florida Derby (G1) Day
 

Initial reaction - 20/1 seems like attractive odds on Soup and Sandwich.

This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal

Greatness?

....and suddenly, a new contender has emerged

Is that a meal?

Yes but I wouldn’t give someone an Armani suit in exchange for it.

Spielberg has a very good chance of winning this race.

ML is 9/2 on I Get It in Race 3: The Sanibel Isl. Stakes? Be lucky to get 2:1. I think she lays over this field.

I don’t see him laying over this field. I think 5 is horse to beat. 4 is faster too and 8 is a major player. 9-2 seems right

If she runs back to her last, she will be very tough. Totally eliminated (and lucky not to go down) by the DQ’d winner and still ran on strong at the end. Gary Barber buying her after her last is a good sign IMO as well.

Unless the Mott filly is really good, I agree with you. She stands out. Definitely won’t see 9/2 but you might get 3-1.

Those 89 BSF's are intoxicating...Take it from a guy who knows intoxication

Can someone explain the love for Known Agenda? I don’t dislike him but seems everyone is picking him.

He seems like a horse on the improve. I think you can throw out the race in the slop and I don’t think the race at Tampa was a fair indicator of his talent.

On the flip side...what do you like about Spielberg? To me he seems like a horse who stepped up in Baffert’s juice den (Oaklawn) and has really never run a race that makes him a contender.

If we look at his last race, the figures put him at the top of this group: 90 Beyer, 114 Timeform, and I believe his thorograph number was the same or similar to Greatest Honour's best. From a trip perspective, he had a bad start in the Southwest, spotted the field about 2 lengths, was wide throughout, and still managed to beat the 3rd place finisher Jackie's Warrior by 4 lengths.

It seems like he's got tactical speed to get himself good position and work out a nice trip in the Florida Derby.

I guess my biggest concern with him is whether we've seen enough of him where he's already hit near his peak and we can't expect another big move from him. But even if he runs a similar race to the Southwest but just has a better trip, then I think he's got a strong chance.

There is a very valid argument that Known Agenda's last Beyer fig could be more than 10 points too low.

Fla Derby
 

With no true E types in this field I'm thinking that Baffert & Javi are going to send Spielberg and lay down the challenge...it's what he does.
Latest work and his outside post says he's going.

If they're not careful he can open up a nice early lead. IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
Interesting runner for me is Nova Rags, who figures to get a nice inside stalking run. Has the early speed to lay close to my expected front runner. I think he can move forward off his last and be a factor at a good price.

Not sure of my exact play, but 1-5-7-10 are my guys.

Interesting. I had a similar thought but was thinking that Nova Rags had to be sent, duels with Collaborate and possibly Soup and Sandwich and Spielberg sits a nice stalking trip behind them.

what figs are you referring to? Collabarate has the highest early pace figure and fastest last race BSF ( Albeit 1 turn )

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

hmmm 1st time route and 1st time winners, I have seen many like this go down, I don't like Favorites , But GH looks like the real deal, and I love when a horse has matching beyers, next race is usually a monster. Ill try and hit a 20 exacta and 20 triple with GH on top....

I have no opinion.

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

LOL

The voices in your big dumb head told you?

Well we got 5/2

I’m glad I posed the question on Known Agenda as I ended up off of Spielberg and on Known Agenda...only to turn around and ultimately decide to single Greatest Honour in my horizontal wagers.

Good job to anyone who ended up on him.

Or not

Funny that there was only 11 horses in the FD, but 3 of them were more than 160-1, and another was 85-1.

Might want to stop listening to whoever told you this.

When I identify a bad favorite and land on a horse ridden by someone other than Irad Ortiz, my record is not good. In these scenarios (big races), I'm not sure what my ROI would be if I had just blindly bet Irad instead, but it would be much higher. This one especially stings because the hype around Collaborate actually helped him (Irad) go off at good/fair odds, which is pretty rare. From a gambling perspective, normally I'd have been all over Known Agenda, but ironically I think my pride got in the way a little bit posting my opinion in advance. Obviously I realize it's mostly about the horse, but I just can't ignore this scenario....and Irad is definitely my guy. I had a bad feeling before the race started that he was going to get me. I did catch him/Pletcher on a pretty big win bet in the BCC Classic on Vino Rosso a couple years ago though in this scenario! This should have been another....I blew it!

I used to employ this same strategy with Ramon back in the day. It was rare to get him at good/fair odds too. Occasionally though, he would get ignored. His win on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup Turf over Kitten's Joy was probably my 2nd happiest moment ever as a gambler, behind Pleasantly Perfect's win in the BCC at 14-1....(that was Solis)