12/26-27 (SA): Malibu, La Brea, Oaks (G1's); Frankel (G3), Logan
 

Storm the Court needs an allowance race, like real bad, unless they are planning on retiring him.

Yep, although I would even say that the Malibu would have been a better spot than the Mathis Brothers. He'd get a cutback (I think he won his only sprint start with a rider on his back) and a hot pace. Even if he had little shot on the win end, he might actually have finished with some interest for once.

All in all, Santa Anita has really blown it with their stakes schedule. The Malibu should have had a full field. Horses like Storm the Court, Idol, Kiss Today Goodbye, Strongconstitution and some off-the-turf types would have been in that spot in previous years, especially when the entire Strub series was still in existence. Now there are too many options with the Mathis Brothers and the San Antonio on the same card.

I was trying but failed to understand why the announcers were pointing out that Idol would be the first 3yo to win the San Antonio and pointing out that the race has been run since 1935. I don't know the history of the race before 1986 but as far as I knew, it was always a race for 4yo and up. It wasn't until the last few years that they moved it to the end of December and made it for 3yo and up.

Anyway, Kiss Today Goodbye took it in an upset. I thought Idol might be done around the turn but he fought on well and came back to run second.

The announcers don't actually follow the sport as far as I can tell and even if they did, Santa Anita is so schizophrenic with their stakes schedule that it would be hard to keep track anyways. This was only the 4th edition of the San Antonio run on this spot on the calendar.

The traditional Big Cap series was the San Pasqual (8.5f, mid-Jan); San Antonio (9f, early Feb); Big Cap (10f, early Mar). The geniuses at the Stronach Group decided they needed a cross-country prep for their bloated Pegasus Faux Cup and inexplicably plucked out the San Antonio and pushed it back to December and shortened it.

Why they didn't simply move the San Pasqual which was already 8.5f and only a couple of weeks past opening day is one for the record books IMO.

At any rate, good to know that most of the horses I mentioned in my earlier post were indeed in top form and should have run in the Malibu.

We were deprived of a Triple Crown winner this year. Charlatan is a really, really good horse.

You continue to be overly enamored by these sprinters simply because they prove to be able to sit the garden trip in small fields rather than being one dimensional frontrunners.

This 7f win proves Charlatan was capable of winning the Triple Crown as much as Gamine's 7f BC proved she was HOY...

Nashville looked nearly as bad as Princess Noor did in the BC.

Going back to last April, had they run the Derby in May, Charlatan would have been no worse than second choice and had won at 9f just like the other top 3yo's had. But now, he's just a sprinter?

I don't only consider horses that run at longer distances to be the best horses. Usain Bolt was the best in the world at running races even though I don't think he'd have had a chance at a mile.

And the fig is coming back strong

Charlatan didn't qualify for the Kentucky Derby, was just an allowance in winner with 2 starts under his belt in April, and has never won a 9 furlong race.

Until today, the only subsequent wins produced from that division of the Arkansas Derby were allowance wins at Ellis Park, Penn National, and Charlestown.

You're more likely to see a route horse make a mess of a sprinter while sprinting than the reverse. In fact if you want to call Charlatan more than a sprinter at this point he just proved the case.

Excuse me. I was thinking of the usual times and the Arkansas Derby is in April. You knew what I meant.

This is low quality trolling.

If nothing else, Charlatan proved in the Arkansas Derby he is not a superior distance horse. Up to one mile, however, is a different story.

Anyone catch the post race Malibu interview?

If you did there should be no guess as to why people dislike Baffert

There's an old story about two guys being chased by a bear. One guys says to the other "you're not faster than a bear." The other guy responds, "I don't have to be faster than a bear, I just need to be faster than you."

If you want to argue that Charlatan is not as good a distance horse as some of the top ones of the past, that's a fair argument. If you want to argue that in the Arkansas Derby, he didn't prove that he was a superior distance horse, we could have that debate. But then are you going to tell me that Authentic proved he was a superior distance horse in the Haskell? We know what he did later. So Charlatan wouldn't have had to prove he was superior to Secretariat. Just superior to Authentic, Tiz the Law, and Swiss Skydiver. Nothing I've seen from him tells me he couldn't beat them.

Right, but that's just the point.

Charlatan proved that he had neither the stamina nor the soundness to win the Triple Crown.

He was unable to run at 2 to be a legit contender in a normal year and even with the Derby in September he couldn't hold together long enough to make the race.

To say this 7f win in a 6-horse field off a 7 month layoff proves he would have won at 10f, 9.5f, and 12f against full fields in a span of 5 weeks ignores all other requisite qualities of a champion Thoroughbred aside from Brilliance.

Last 1/8 in 12.95 not exactly flying home

What figure are you going to assign the winner?

I have a two part question. Who you got between Charlatan and Gamine?

Also did Charlatan do enough today to make you reconsider Gamine for HOY?

Except this year, the TC was 8f, 9.5f, and 10f and it was spread over several months.

Of course you're right if you're talking about his soundness. I'm talking strictly from a talent perspective. Blackthroatedwind uses the silly argument that he proved he wasn't a superior distance horse in the Arkansas Derby. I'm assuming here that he thinks Authentic proved he was a superior distance horse in the Haskell. Do you share that ridiculous opinion? Nobody watching that day thought that Authentic would handle another furlong well. Yet, he did. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but if you tell me that after watching Charlatan in Arkansas and Authentic in NJ that you thought Authentic was the better prospect at 10f, our opinions are further off than I thought.

8f or under, i'm taking Gamine. Over that, Charlatan.

No, he didn't. But I would chose him as top 3yo male.

My question for you. Who do you think is the better horse? Charlatan or Authentic? Not which one had the better year but is the better horse.

Probably Charlatan, but if you asked me after the Classic I might have answered different.

Thank god you don’t have any eclipse votes :D

Authentic was one of the worst training jobs in recent memory. The horse was a uncontrollable run-off, couldn't break cleanly from the gate, couldn't run in a straight line. How the supposed GOAT trainer couldn't rectify these problems by the time the horse made a couple of starts is beyond me.

Nevertheless, by the time Authentic ran in the Haskell, he had shed most of those faults. The only reason to question his stamina was his pedigree--and to be frank, the only times he didn't get to set an unpressured pace, he lost (SA Derby, Preakness). In years where there was an actual full and healthy 3yo crop, he probably would fare no better than a horse like Thunder Rumble.

The Haskell was misinterpreted by many on two points. The guy that owned Tiz The Law shamelessly suggested that the horse must have been juiced in the Derby because it was clear in the Haskell that he had no stamina. The reality is that without Ny Traffic in the race, Authentic wins the Haskell by open lengths and no one questions his stamina. Authentic did not wilt in the stretch so much as Ny Traffic ran out of his skin (Saffie Joseph at Monmouth...who knew?). In addition, as per usual, Mike Smith did no favors for his mount when choosing to hand ride from the 1/8 pole home.

People saw what they wanted to see in the Haskell. But the point was moot because Authentic was handed both the Derby and the Classic on a silver platter. For some unknown reason other trainers with good speed horses refused to engage the horse early even though he was buried in SA Derby in a speed duel.

That's not to say a large chunk of Authentic's success wasn't due to the efforts of Bob Baffert. Never mind the easy pace scenarios, when you divest the crop of Nadal, Charlatan, Uncle Chuck, Cezanne, and Eight Rings over the course of the year you're certainly clearing a path to success. He even was able to get one of the only other horses in the Derby coming off a triple digit Beyer to scratch only minutes before the race (Thousand Words).

After the Classic, I would have said Authentic was the clear winner. I would change it now. Even then, I thought Charlatan was the better horse but one graded stakes win just wasn't enough to overcome the resume advantage Authentic had. Honestly, it still isn't but it for me Charlatan > Authentic on talent is more than Authentic > Charlatan on resume.

I think you’re overestimating today’s effort a bit. That was not the Nashville we saw last month and my guess is he’s finally turned into a pumpkin. The others aren’t very good.

For the record Charlatan still has one graded win. He was DQd in Arkansas. Hay and oats Bob.

Interesting how quickly people forget Nadal ran the faster race in Arkansas.

All the "Charlatan is a router" nonsense clogging the internet will eventually get flushed away and forgotten. Maybe in a soft spot, if he can control the pace, but I'm highly skeptical.

How bout just hoping he stays sound so he can run in the Carter, Met Mile, and Forego.

Nobody has forgotten that. But to say he ran the faster race is subjective.....as the BC Sprint vs the Perryville taught us.

What you're not doing is taking into account the expected competition. If you're saying he can't beat top competition at a distance, that's one thing. But Kiss Today Goodbye and Idol just ran 1-2 in the San Antonio and I don't know what great horses you're expecting for the Big Cap but I don't see anything that I'd say outclasses Charlatan.

Your problem is that you can only seem to understand this concept when it comes to horses that you believe in but when others believe the same concept about other horses, it's nonsense to you. Like with Gamine. These were your words:

"She is better going shorter, but still better than almost every horse of her sex going long....and most males too."

So for me to say a horse that's won a grades stakes race at 9f can run long is silly and nonsense but for you to say that a horse that's only won stakes at 8f and under and was easily beaten in her 9f race and much less than dominant in her 8.5f race is........you know what, nevermind. The point is proven.

I applaud you for your most excellent high quality trolling but you don't fool me with your silliness.

Stick with Rollo....he's an easy mark.

Right, you do understand that statement is 100% correct...right?

What percentage of the thousands of race horses out there are better than her even going long? This is a math question, so take your time.

I stand corrected, you aren't such a high quality troll.

LOL. You know the comparison is exactly the same. Both are great at sprinting and we are basing our opinions on them going further on what we think will happen. Nobody is saying they would be better at going longer distances than sprinting just that they can do it effectively and we are saying it more based on the prospective competition more than anything else.

My argument for Charlatan is stronger than yours for Gamine. Everyone can see it. Just take this L and move on buddy.

What was so bad about the Arkansas Derby ? He win by 6 in 1:48 and change?
How exactly does that prove that he is not a superior distance hoss ?
Third lifetime start....1:48 and change going 9 furlongs.....not much slower than the monster effort by Nadal who had a perfect trip.
Nadal was very good, but that doesn’t mean Charlatan wasn’t very good too. He has been very impressive in every race.. he dominates. He goes funny though.

The 3 hoss looked like he didn’t really handle the track. The poor job they did harrowing the track on the turn didn’t help his cause either as he shied Just when he could have been trying to fight back a little. I’d give him another chance soon.

He’s right....this is high quality trolling...or at least an attempt at it.

You view Gamine as the second coming, but here you speak of her not so glowingly. Charlatan ran well. Before we crown him your newest best horse ever can we see him run again in the next 6 months?

He's not right. I think the same thing about Gamine as I do Charlatan. I believe she will stretch out and win top level races going two-turns and 9f. I believe the same thing about Charlatan. I'm consistent in that I think the combination of their talent + the depressed level of competition will lead to bigger things for both. He can see it with Gamine but for anyone to suggest the same with Charlatan is silly, even though the evidence points more towards Charlatan doing it than Gamine cause at least he's won at 9f while Gamine was handled easily.

What he is saying (I think) is the hyperbole that we are seeing here from you and others on the internet about Charlatan is silly. He won a 7 furlong race and you (and others) have him being robbed of the triple crown because he wasn’t healthy.

He’s a really nice and exciting horse. A really nice and exciting horse that has made 4 starts in his career and he’ll be 4 next week.

Maybe Charlatan will be dominant going 9 furlongs and farther next year. Based on his final 3/16ths yesterday I think the jury is still out. Let’s not forget that many people thought Gamine would have no problem with 9 furlongs, especially since she beat the eventual Ashland winner going two turns at Oaklawn. How did that work out?

The only thing more ridiculous than Charlatan would’ve won the triple crown is the notion that Baffert didn’t have him 100% yesterday.

The thing is, I can understand anyone saying I'm being premature about Gamine and Charlatan. Not only understand it but even agree with it. It has to be proven on the track. The only thing I'm saying is be consistent. Whatever you think about one, you almost have to think the same about the other. You're consistent in your position that you want to see it first. I'm consistent in mine that I think both can do it. He says he thinks Gamine can but anyone that says Charlatan can is being silly.

Not sure what your criteria is for "talent" other than an unbeaten record. You keep saying Charlatan has won at 9f but he hasn't; he was disqualified in AK for testing positive for a local anesthetic.

Despite having a local anesthetic in his system at the time of the weaker division of the Arkansas Derby, the horse regressed 10 BSF points on the stretch-out under absolutely perfect conditions.

Meanwhile, Authentic, who presumably is less talented because he lost a couple of races, increased his speed figures every time he stepped up in trip and company. And he stayed sound while doing it. 87-90-98-100-105-111; no mean feat.

The only chink in Authentic's armor was that he failed to prove he could survive a speed duel although he hardly packed it in in either of his losses.

Charlatan hasn't survived a speed duel as of yet and nothing he did yesterday suggest he will be able to do so over a route of ground. The only thing he proved was that he will willingly sit off a run-off type (the way Gamine did behind Serengeti Empress) in a sprint. He was still well clear of the rest of the field early.

Considering that with his sharp speed figure drop off in his only route attempt (despite being left with a clear unpressured lead throughout) and it is clear you are way overboard on all of this.

Other than having him disqualified from the Alaska Derby, you pretty much nailed it.

Still, it's kind of an embarrassing error.

G**damn public education system.

I'm not too embarrassed, though.

Pretty sure that if we conducted an internet poll of the American populace on whether or not 'AK' is the correct abbreviation for Arkansas I'd have a good chance of coming out on top.

Kind of like that fable in Serpico. If the king drinks the poisoned water he will regain his sanity.