5/2: Oaklawn ~ Arkansas Derby Day (4th-14th)
 

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


NOTE: Speed was pronounced Friday to the point of carrying front end horses; Use races 1-5 (4 sprints, 1 route) to gauge conditions before serious multi-race wagering begins with middle P4 (R6-9)..


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Major Attraction 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Bank 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #13 Illuminati 20-1 5th ~ (ALT: #5 Quality Warrior 15-1 2nd)
Exotics Use: #9 Uncle Addouma 4-1 4th


5th: Opt CLM/C, 4+. 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bankit 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Endorsed 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 Two Thirty Five 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Pirates Punch 3-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Friar's Road 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Ring of Fire 10-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Hunt the Front 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Highly anticipated 2nd start of Gamine, but note that Ain't No Elmers draws in and Speech is solid. Was using Black Kat Taps yesterday but she SCR'd for this spot. Not a win candidate, but value underneath circling back to a good effort while reunited with BJ Hernandez..

Most Likely: #8 Gamine 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #13 Ain't No Elmers 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Black Kat Taps 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Speech 2-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fra Mauro 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Benintendi 8-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Don Vito Corleone 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Moretti 5-2 WON ($7.40)


9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Rotation 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Popular Kid 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Fearless 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Always 8-1 6th


P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 8-13 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
8: 1-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: OC/N$Y, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read about pace with Ginobili stretching out and certainly first on to the backstretch with other alleged pace players having 'route' speed. Track played kindly to front end types Friday..

Most Likely: #11 Rushie 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #10 Prodigous Bay 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ginobili 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #12 Background 15-1 3rd


11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Charlatan was a heavy favorite even prospect for pace pressure came out. Expect Anneau d'Or runs better today reunited with JJ Hernandez.

Most Likely: #1 Charlatan 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #8 Anneau d'Or 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Gouverneur Morris 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Winning Impression 15-1 4th


12th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

With the speeds inside, Improbable SCR'D stands to sit a comfortable 3rd-4th on to the backstretch. Return race was terrific and while he won't be 8-1, will still be a square enough number given the deep cast. Fascinating lineup with at least half eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #2 Trophy Chaser 12-1 13th
Next Best: #9 Tacitus 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Combatant 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Mr Freeze 6-1 3rd


13th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nadal 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 King Guillermo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Storm the Court 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Farmington Road 12-1 4th


14th: 'Trail's End' S/ALW, 3+, 14f

Most Likely: #5 Carlos Sixes 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Take Charge d'Oro 10-1 WON ($39.60)
Next Best: #7 Wickett's Way 8-1 12th
Exotics Use: #14 River Echo 8-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 2-10-11 (A), 4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 5 (A), 9 (B), 1-7-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15


P4 Grid:

11: 1 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 1-5-7-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x5x2x5 = 50 x .50 = $25


Good luck!
Steve

Improbable out of Handicap..

Trophy Chaser has a big shot here. Good luck Steve

I have to throw a couple of dollars on Chess Chief....Dallas always seems to run big in these shows....probably doesn't win but I bet he will be coming, plus BJ is in the irons

You are the best
 

Thank you Steve for your time and handicapping knowledge. I was able to hit the pick 4 and pick 5 . what made the sequence is your horse Take Charge D'oro paying 39.60.

What he said ^

Awesome work Steve.

Myke, Bam, Moishe..

Thanks. Pleased to hear of the multi hits and those that got out in the season-ender. Fun to have a card like this on 'Derby Day'. Sorry to miss By My Standards, but I lost the feel for the race when Improbable came out.

Hope everyone did well. Stunning $41,000,000 bet on OP yesterday.. :zz:

Looks like a quiet week before things start to gear up mid-month. Stay safe all..

The only "normalcy" the past 49 days has been the opportunity to STILL wager on tracks like; Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and even Fonner & Will Rogers :D I'm so glad to see those little tracks like the two later have a chance to take advantage as they are "only game in town" while this is going on. :$: Glad to see the Churchill has set a date and hopefully NYRA will get in gear soon ..... once they get the ok from the "man in charge" here in N.Y. state. ;)

The Man in Charge here in NY State is doing the thinking for those too myopic and ignorant to think for themselves.

Since it's a quiet Sunday after a big Saturday and the topic of getting everything 'back to normal' came up, I recommend reading this TNR piece from University of Oregon prof Joe Lowndes..

The Morbid Ideology Behind the Drive to Reopen America

That your opinion ;) everything he's doing is a power grab most right minded people can see through. If he had it his way, racing would be DONE in N.Y. Some are quick to hate on certain leaders and give other ones a pass It's pretty obvious here.

The same right minded people that voted a reality show host for president?

:tro:

You’re going to equate the actions of Gov. Cuomo to protect the health of the citizens of NY to the pathetic, incompetent embarrassment that left the country defenseless in the face of this pandemic, has effectively destroyed the International standing of America and largely imperiled the viability of the republic in countless ways? Priceless.

No worries, man.

When somebody is President of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s gotta be. It’s total.

Power grabs by anyone else are just not right minded.

Lot of HATE there, boss :rolleyes: but it doesn't surprise me ...... control that anger, it's unbecoming of a man like you with so much stature :tro: Just remember that :{>: you give for the mad man in Albany when HE destroys YOUR sport ...... and livelihood :( SAD

There's not an ounce of hate there, just disdain for those who've likely done irreparable damage to this country with their gleeful ignorance, fraudulent patriotism and unbridled greed.

The sport isn't going to be destroyed by the state or governor and I wouldn't worry about my stature. I'm hopeful that it's enhanced by standing up for what America is supposed to be and giving a voice to those that are being marginalized.

Wait you mean those people shouting MAGA and KAG aren’t real patriots? They say they are. Weird....

I suppose next you’ll tell me ingesting disinfectant is a bad idea. Say it ain’t so!

So glad you set me straight .....:rolleyes: My "respect" for Cuomo is the same as yours for Trump, so I'll leave it at that. But I think you've missed your calling in life, you are the perfect politician in your thinking :p you're never wrong!

Someone’s projecting....

Truth hurts, hossie ;) I find it highly entertaining :rolleyes:

If Trump was a Democrat would you still be singing his praises?

You keep taking this weird victim role, while not really explaining your point of view. You think Cuomo is doing some power grab. Explain yourself....how so?

Then you act like Steve is being hateful for expressing his opinion. Yet you’re the one who has gotten personal with him multiple times now. He doesn’t need me to defend him, but that’s the “truth”.

Since you think Cuomo is getting a pass, what is he getting a pass on? While you’re at it, in your opinion, has the President handled this situation well? Let’s actually have a discussion instead of quick personal snipes.

I laughed :p guess I'm just "myopic & ignorant" ;) typical liberal twisting words. :zz:

One thing I find interesting is that Cuomo, like most intelligent and thoughtful people, is able to evolve in his opinions, as he has with horse racing. His trip to Saratoga last Summer made that very clear to anyone paying attention.

Evolving is a lost art for most politicians these days. Personally, I'm pleased that NY has a Governor that is able to do that.

You’re a journalist right? Use your words.

Since you think Cuomo is attempting a power grab, please explain what power he’s trying to grab?

Do you think the current administration has handled this crisis well?

I wrote a column on thoroughbred racing and was a public handicapper, never thought of myself as a "journalist" never got paid enough to be one and wouldn't want to be in that category in today's media. Like your opinion of Trump followers, ditto for me on Cuomo. It's that simple ...... understand?

I was being nice. Trust me...no one considered you one either.

It’s very telling that I’ve attempted to have a discussion twice and you’re unwilling. It’s not a gotcha. I’m genuinely curious how you feel Cuomo is attempting a power grab. I’m also genuinely curious how you feel the administration has handled this crisis thus far.

Very basic and direct questions. My guess is you heard someone say Cuomo is going for a power grab and have decided to run with it. You’re not sure how or why, but who cares, right? I’m also guessing you know Trump has handled this very poorly, but you can’t or won’t admit that.

God bless you all. I"m gald I live in a country where we can speak freely, shake hands with those whose opinions are different than my own and pray that the world greatest scientist can protect me, my family and all of you. Love Steve and his wife, they are very lovely people. Thank God that journalists are free to print the truth without punishment and I have eyes to read and a mind to think. I'm passing on the disinfectant. Did enjoy a series on recently a Netflix called John Adam's who gave these freedoms. Guys, all of u take care. Again God bless all of you.

You like to bait people and it's pretty obvious .... it also obvious your an a-hole and I'm being totally blunt! Give it up, I don't have to explain myself to you or anyone here! Its my opinion, who cares if you or anyone likes it. Go back to fighting Bama ..... no time for your sh!t

You were, of course, still laughing when you typed this....right?

Yeah, hossie is a joke ...... like a lot of other people I know ;)

I can’t argue much with your first two sentences.

But I was being genuine in asking. I’m curious about viewpoints outside of mine. Again, very telling you refuse to engage in any sort of discussion short of playing the victim (you’ve always been VERY good at that) and a tantrum.

You’re the prototypical Trump supporter. Ignorant of facts, easy to manipulate and very eager to spread bullish.it. You wouldn’t know an original thought if it jumped up and bit you and you’re intimidated by any kind of discussion because your opinions aren’t your own....so you know you can’t really defend them.

What was the point in engaging at all if you weren’t interested in elaborating on your smiley faces?

Oh, Hossie ....... I don't care anymore what you or anyone here thinks of me, just go ahead & DART ME!

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Such a victim...

All of this drama because someone had the audacity to ask you to explain your vague posts.

This was well played. I missed it the first time

Thanks.

But I was just busy victimizing him, of course.

It’s what we do to real patriots when we aren’t burning aborted babies in tribute to our one true master.