2020 Kentucky Derby contender watch
 

We’re only 6 months away from the Derby so I figured it might be useful to gather some thoughts about potential Derby contenders. I’ll be trying to get solid odds on some horses when the Pool 1 opens up later this month (I was lucky enough to put some money on Country House in pool 3 last year and locked him in at “great value” at 29-1. Disregard that he went off 65-1 on Derby Day.)

So far, we’ve got a few horses that have really stood out. My hope is to add some additional names and maybe have some conversations about what we like or don’t like about certain horses. Feel free to add any names that you think are worth keeping an eye on.

Independence Hall - Winner of the G3 Nashua Stakes and owner of the crop’s first triple digit beyer figure.

Storm the Court - Winner of the G1 BC Juvenile

Tiz the Law - Winner of the G1 Champagne Stakes

Structor - Winner of the G1 BC Juvenile Turf and who’s reportedly going to try dirt

Maxfield - Winner of the G1 Breeders Futurity

One horse that I really like is Green Light Go despite the recent loss to Tiz the Law. I think that he could really improve by May of next year so I’m going to keep a watch on him.

South Bend - his victory at Churchill was impressive last time out, pretty professional for a two year old and he is in good hands.

...We’re only 6 months away from the Derby


6 months is an eternity in horse racing but bless them all.

Just watched all 3 of his races and he looks like a nice horse. That 2nd race in the AOC at Keeneland, he beat Night Code pretty handily and Night Code looks like he could be solid. The most impressive thing in that race, IMO, was that he was 4-6 wide pretty much all race and still chopped them down at the end. Hopefully he runs in the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of the month and we’ll see how he stacks up against some of the other top 2YOs.

Edit: Just read an article on HRN that there may have been an outside bias that day. Not sure if true but worth noting.

I was trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I guess it doesn’t always convey over the Internet.

I was hoping to add a few more names to the list after the last few weeks...but I'm not sure anyone has stood out.

A few names I didn't previously include:

Dennis' Moment - Winner of the Iroquois Stakes. Only 2YO with a 90+ Beyer for a race over 1 mile. Absolutely destroyed the field when breaking his maiden. That field included Sounion who just broke his maiden with a solid 75 Beyer. Can forgive his performance at the Breeders Cup.

Scabbard - I thought his trip in the Iroquois was compromised but he still finished well. It's possible he didn't like the track at Breeders Cup. He's worth keeping an eye on.

Forza di Oro - Sired by Speightstown, you probably won't see this horse listed on many people's contender list...but his maiden win was really impressive as he altered out behind a wall of horses and then kicked it into gear. I think he wins the Remsen if he enters.

He's supposed to run in the Remsen. I agree that he's interesting. It would be funny if Mott trained the horse that actually finished first in this year's Derby.

Personally, I think Dennis' Moment should be favored. His BC was meaningless. While Tiz the Law lost nothing in defeat in my opinion, I still think he's less likely to win the Derby than Dennis' Moment. I also think the Derby favorite is no better than 30:1, and anyone taking a significantly lesser price on any horse is foolish.

I’d love that for Mott. It would provide a bit of redemption for him. He got a lot of unwarranted hate about the Derby disqualification.

For me, I’ve got Independence Hall at the top of my list but really want to see him replicate that around two turns. After that, it’s probably Dennis’ Moment and Tiz the Law. I’ve got a feeling that we could have a new favorite after the Los Al Futurity. Every horse in that race seems to have great potential and if any of them win convincingly then we’ll see the hype train start rolling. That should be a tremendous race.

As far as future wagers, they’re generally foolish bets but the gambler in me can’t pass up big odds on a horse that I like. I put some money on Green Light Go at 46-1 but even that seems like bad value given that he’s got a lot of question marks.

Hi guys...

It’s been a long time since I posted; I hope you’re all well. I’d like your thoughts on Honor A.P. I know he’s just a maiden breaker, but I love his potential - and I adore his sire.

Thanks !

:eek:

Only 7 years, Betsy! :D Welcome back..

I adore his dam Hollywood Story (whom Shirreffs trained as well).

He's a serious colt and we'll get an early read Saturday when he faces off against Thousand Words in the Los Al Futurity.

I like him quite a bit. Honor Code has a few very nice two year olds (I’ve got Thunder Code and Night Code in mind) and Honor A. P. may be the best of them all. He looks to me like a horse that has a lot of room to improve and who will like the added distances that come on the derby trail. The thing I really love about his maiden win is that he controlled the pace and then reacted well to urging by Mike Smith down the stretch and was able to put in a final furlong that was faster than the previous one.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Los Al and if he does, you might have a new derby favorite coming out of that race.

I’ve got a few names written down for horses that haven’t raced yet. I’m wondering if anyone has heard anything on them?

Take Charge Curlin (Curlin-Take Charge Brandi, trained by Mark Casse)

Time in Hand (Hard Spun-Queen Sheba, full brother to Hidden Scroll, trainer not listed)

Theprinceofthebes (Pioneerof the Nile-Littleprincessemma, full brother to American Pharoah, I believe I saw he would be trained by Baffert?)

Sole Volante (KY) been running on turf makes his next start
in the Mucho Macho Man @GP to see if he can dirt. Ran his last
race in the Pulpit Stakes 1.33.02 :{>: He's a runner

My god, has it been that long? Wow....I’m not sure why it’s been so long, especially as there’s a dearth of racing forums out there. Well, it’s the best time of year because now the babies we’ve latched onto get to show their stuff and we’ll see if they develop into stars.

I’ll be interested to see what his running style in the Futurity is. He closed in his debut, but won on the lead in his maiden. I suspect that’s because Mike Smith didn’t want to fool around on the best horse. I’m excited about the race!

I also think Thunder Code and Night Code are talented, but I suspect the latter might have soundness issues. He broke his maiden in June, ran even better in his comeback at Churchill a few months later and hasn’t worked since. Thunder Code might have just been put away for the winter - I hope he’s not hurt. I know he might be one of those who always finds a horse or two better than he, but it feels like they are trying to make a speedster out of him when I think he prefers closing.

I agree about Honor A.P. - and he looks like he’s floating; I love watching him run.

Just taking a look at Honor Code’s two year olds, he’s also got: Bellavia (placed in debut against a nice group, broke maiden next time out in October, 1/2 to Live Lively who won the Davona Dale and placed in the Gulfstream Oaks); Democratic Values ($475K yearling purchase, Chad Brown / Klaravich Stables, didn’t fire in debut). Some others that could be solid - Cavalry Charge, Conformity, Bama Breeze, Oorah, Patriot Game (1/2 to Orb), Hollidaze, Recoded (1/2 to Egg Drop), Lucky Asset (1/2 to Twilight Eclipse). Fillies - Special Honor, Power of Magic (1/2 to Space Mountain, Ride on Curlin), Celtic Honor, Belveeta (1/2 to English Channel).

But anyway - I’m very interested to see how the Los Al plays out. Looks like Eight Rings is out. It would be nice to see that field fill out a little. As of right now I think it’s only got 5 horses listed.

I’m not convinced he can make the switch to dirt...but boy, if he can, that’ll be exciting.

I love Bellavia also, but he’s another one who may be hurt as he hasn’t worked since his late October maiden win. Same with Bama Breeze, who hasn’t worked since winning his debut on the grass in September. Corsi is an undefeated colt from Canada who was supposed to run in the Coronation Futurity, but missed it ..also no works.

We’ll have to wait on Honor A.P. as he’s not running in the Futurity, but rather is pointing for the Sham Stakes.

I’m not either. His action looks very turfy.

Perhaps it was premature for me to add Forza di Oro. He took a lot of kickback in the Remsen, which has not boded well for horses at Aqueduct lately, but he just didn’t have anything to offer for the better horses in that race.

I thought the top 3 finishers in the Springboard Mile ran fairly well - Shoplifted, Answer In, and Embolden. Worth keeping an eye on them.

I’m a little hesitant about Khozan colts...but Untitled looked very good in his debut this weekend at Gulfstream. And of course Anneau d’Or and Thousand Words looked good in the Los Al a couple weeks ago.

It feels like everyone...or maybe it’s just me...is waiting for January 1 to see Independence Hall run in the Jerome.

Khozan
 

I am very interested in offspring of Khozan. Don not follow south Fla. until the winter. Never heard of the first crop sire Khozan until a couple of weeks ago. Big fan of Distorted Humor bloodline both sire and broodmare sire. I do not remember who trained Khozan. I would think probably Pletcher or Mclaughlin trained the horse. Krozan only made 2 starts and won both @7F and ! mile. Won by open lengths both starts. I am sure I wagered on him if he was any kind of price. The dam of Krozan Delta princess dropped Royal Delta(3 time champ) and Delta Prince (grade 1W). Horse stood for 4K now 8500. I would think his offspring would relish 2 turns. He probably was booked to less than stellar mares to breed to. If I could get a future book bet on sire winning the derby I would donate a few bucks.

Oh yeah. I’m interested, just hesitant. Untitled looked great.

Old news but Untitled has been purchased privately and is heading to the Casse barn. I wonder who bought him. Seems like something Gary Barber might do?

Just saw that Honor AP may be out of the Sham?

Confirmed. Untitled was purchased by Gary Barber. Casse plans to run him in the Swale Stakes...but says he doesn’t think he’ll have any issue getting two turns. Interesting.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...rgeting-swale/

I wonder if they give Sole Volante another try on dirt?

I think he deserves another show, possibly longer. If they do, I wonder if they’ll switch the jockey up.

I think I read that they are. It’s a mistake IMO because they could have went around 2 more times the other day and he wasn’t finishing better than he did.

He’s a very good turf horse. I just don’t think he is the same on dirt, but obviously the purse money is in dirt racing early in the year.

It seems every time a trainer says he doesn't believe a horse will have a problem going long, it has a problem going long:-)

Nothing says confidence in a horse’s ability to handle two turns like running him in a $200,000 sprint on the same day and at the same track that a $350,000 8.5 furlong Derby prep is being run.

Nothing says dumb like stretching him out off a six furlong debut win while simultaneously throwing him into a super tough spot as well.

Haha. I agree with you. I just thought it was funny that Casse said he doesn’t think he’ll have trouble around two turns and then targets a 7f race as his next start. From the sound of it, the Holy Bull could be loaded with talent. It would probably be an impossible task.

Even the Swale is more aggressive than he probably needs to be. He could have done what Maximum Security did last year and run a couple optional claiming races before entering stakes competition. So we’ll see how it plays out. I trust Casse and I like the horse. Hope he does well.

Maximum Security ran in Starter races. BIG difference.

Maximum Security was just an example, perhaps a bad one. Roadster used an optional claiming allowance race to prep last year and I think a few of Pletcher’s horses did as well last year. Plenty of other very good horses have followed up their maiden win or preceded a major Derby Prep by running in an allowance optional claiming race.

Casse opted to go straight to a stakes race...which is probably a good sign...to me, it shows a lot of confidence in the horse’s overall ability.

Most NW1X races are Optional Claimers these days in an attempt to get more entries.

Maximum Security was a bad example specifically because he was eligible for MUCH easier spots because he ran for a low tag first out.

I was thinking the same thing :eek: Not saying it was a bad ride, just
a little uninspiring. I say, two turns, Paco and see what he's got!

It looks like there were a handful of pretty good 3YOs that ran yesterday. I’m going to have to go back and watch most of those races.

War Stopper with a 94 Beyer at Aqueduct was pretty nice.

Sole Volante breezed 7F in 1:22 on PM Turf....I think
they'll keep him on the lawn:D

It looks like Maxfield may get back to work just in time to prep for the Derby. Stay tuned.

https://www.drf.com/news/maxfield-tr...e-chip-removed

I need to find a new horse to latch on to.