Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)
-   -   6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64416)

Kasept 05-29-2018 07:56 AM

6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day
 







RolloTomasi 05-29-2018 10:07 AM

Backyard Heaven has a couple of works since his Derby Day win and Westchester winner Tale of Silence put in a work nearly 2 weeks ago (though he seems to start only once every 2 months).

I wonder if they're looking at the race...

blackthroatedwind 05-29-2018 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1110332)
Backyard Heaven has a couple of works since his Derby Day win and Westchester winner Tale of Silence put in a work nearly 2 weeks ago (though he seems to start only once every 2 months).

I wonder if they're looking at the race...

Backyard Heaven is going to the Foster.

moses 05-29-2018 11:13 AM

I’m not sure I like Limousine Liberal over 7 furlongs.

Any word on when we might see Sharp Azteca back? I thought the Met Mile was a possibility.

Alabama Stakes 05-29-2018 12:33 PM

Bolt D'oro should handle those handily.

ateamstupid 05-29-2018 02:00 PM

Should be a cakewalk for Bee Jersey if that's the field.

RHT2004 05-29-2018 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1110340)
Should be a cakewalk for Bee Jersey if that's the field.

I was going to say something similar. Not a lot of speed.

cakes44 05-29-2018 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1110342)
I was going to say something similar. Not a lot of speed.

Huh? Ransom the Moon would be all over him IMO.

cakes44 05-29-2018 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110336)
Bolt D'oro should handle those handily.

BDO doesn’t handle much handily.

LITF 05-29-2018 08:27 PM

Anyone know where I can find the probables for the other stake races on Belmont Day?

pweizer 05-30-2018 07:44 AM

Looks like Patch is intended for this race too.

Paul

MaTH716 05-30-2018 08:21 AM

No one talking about Mind Your Biscuits? I guess you need to worry about the Dubai bounce, but he was the only horse to make up and ground that day in Dubai.

blackthroatedwind 05-30-2018 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1110352)
No one talking about Mind Your Biscuits? I guess you need to worry about the Dubai bounce, but he was the only horse to make up and ground that day in Dubai.

He also saved more ground than the second and third finishers. Speed track or rail track?

By the way, none of that means he's not a major threat to win the Met.

MaTH716 05-30-2018 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110353)
He also saved more ground than the second and third finishers. Speed track or rail track?

By the way, none of that means he's not a major threat to win the Met.

Andy, I don't think he saved any ground. He was 3 deep for most of the race and finished widest of all.

blackthroatedwind 05-30-2018 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1110354)
Andy, I don't think he saved any ground. He was 3 deep for most of the race and finished widest of all.

I believe according to Trakus he covered less ground than the second and third horses.

The second horse should have won. He got a dreadful ride. He's a rocket ship and his rider allowed a much slower horse to outrun him early while he set up shop outside of him. Roy H's rider couldn't get him wide and in the clear fast enough. It was only a two million dollar race. Why bother paying attention to how the track was playing?

Not knocking Mind Your Biscuits. He's pretty amazing. However, that race was very poorly ridden by his chief competitors. It seems like this has been ignored because we were all sort of shocked by Mind Your Biscuit's late run.

MaTH716 05-30-2018 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110355)
I believe according to Trakus he covered less ground than the second and third horses.

The second horse should have won. He got a dreadful ride. He's a rocket ship and his rider allowed a much slower horse to outrun him early while he set up shop outside of him. Roy H's rider couldn't get him wide and in the clear fast enough. It was only a two million dollar race. Why bother paying attention to how the track was playing?

Not knocking Mind Your Biscuits. He's pretty amazing. However, that race was very poorly ridden by his chief competitors. It seems like this has been ignored because we were all sort of shocked by Mind Your Biscuit's late run.

This is fair. I would admit discounting everything else that happened in the race because I was so awestruck of the way he closed into a track that I perceived to be speed biased.

moses 05-30-2018 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110355)
I believe according to Trakus he covered less ground than the second and third horses.

The second horse should have won. He got a dreadful ride. He's a rocket ship and his rider allowed a much slower horse to outrun him early while he set up shop outside of him. Roy H's rider couldn't get him wide and in the clear fast enough. It was only a two million dollar race. Why bother paying attention to how the track was playing?

Not knocking Mind Your Biscuits. He's pretty amazing. However, that race was very poorly ridden by his chief competitors. It seems like this has been ignored because we were all sort of shocked by Mind Your Biscuit's late run.

I believe Desormeaux said Roy H stumbled at the start and I guess he used the horse up to make up for that. Haven’t really watched to confirm.

blackthroatedwind 05-30-2018 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1110364)
I believe Desormeaux said Roy H stumbled at the start and I guess he used the horse up to make up for that. Haven’t really watched to confirm.

Always good to confirm things Kent says.

declansharbor 05-30-2018 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110367)
Always good to confirm things Kent says.

Like that "rocket ship" that he tweeted about and rode for D Jacobsen on Derby Day of last year or the year before. Caldera?? or something like that!

:rolleyes:

taxicab 05-31-2018 12:07 AM

Golden Shaheen:
MYB = Navy blue/orange markings.
Roy = Aqua blue.
Pretty exciting tilt.....

https://youtu.be/w2qoe7Q4aiI

Alabama Stakes 06-01-2018 04:40 PM

I will light up the tote board with Multiplier

57rick 06-03-2018 04:49 PM

Fantastic card Friday!!!🏇💰🙏

richard burch 06-03-2018 10:52 PM

Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill)
Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas)
Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans)
Gronkowski (Chad Brown)
Hofburg (Bill Mott)

Justify (Bob Baffert)
Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher)
Restoring Hope (Baffert)
Seahenge (Aidan O'Brien)
Tenfold (Steve Asmussen)
Vino Rosso (Pletcher)


In some way I am going to bet against him......Don't think he will win.

freddymo 06-04-2018 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1110367)
Always good to confirm things Kent says.

I stumble the horse didn't he didn't break well at all

Alabama Stakes 06-04-2018 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1110658)
I bumble the horse didn't he didn't break well at all

Fixed your post.

freddymo 06-05-2018 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110663)
Fixed your post.

Yeah I admit it I can do bumble as well, trust me stumbling is WAY more apropos

raininthrees 06-05-2018 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1110336)
Bolt D'oro should handle those handily.


LoL

WoW

raininthrees 06-05-2018 05:45 PM

Belmont Stakes Pick 6 History (2013-present)

Notes:

The average payout in the last five years in the Pick 6 on
Belmont Stakes Day is $233,663


Quick Summary of the Year to Year

2013- Palace Malice($29.60) $2.00 payoff $6,345

Other winners in the sequence were favorites Power Broker($4.70),
Fast Bullet($3.60), Point Entry($3.10) with Stephanie's Kitten($8.00)
getting it done as second choice and Forty Tales($19.80) was the other longest price.

2014- Tonalist($20.40) $2.00 payoff $90,671

Tonalist denied California Chrome a triple crown, while in
other races favorites winning were scarce. Sweet Reason($20.80),
Closed Hatches($7.80), Palace Malice($4.70), with turf winners being
Coffee Clique($11.70) and Real Solution($13.00)

2015- American Pharoah($3.50) $2.00 payoff $129,318

Pharoah was the only favorite who crossed the wire first making this triple crown pick six
one for the ages, as other winners were. Coach Inge($7.90), Curalina($16.40),Tepin($11.20),
Honor Code($16.20), and Slumber ($30.20)

2016- Creator($34.80) $2.00 payoff $640,034

The fields were deep and salty, despite the free square with
Flintshire($3.40) on turf. Others in the sequence were Pure Sensation($39.20) in the turf sprint,
Tom's Ready($17.20) slicing
and dicing thru that torrid set pace for the win. Celestine($17.00) blazed
on the faster the fast turf surface. Frosted($6.70) even enjoyed the race
call as "Oh My Goodness, Look at Frosted today, he won by 100 wrapped up".
Creator($34.80) wins wide open Belmont.

2017- Tapwrit($12.60) $2.00 payoff $301,947

Tapwrit($12.60) grinds down Irish War Cry, others included Baffert
tandem of American Anthem($5.90) and Mor Spirit($7.10) has either
won since? #love'emthenleave'em. With Antonoe($8.20), Disco Partner($11.60) and
Ascend($57.00) enjoying turf wins on the Belmont Stakes undercard.

2018's chapter will be written Saturday at Elmont...

Kasept 06-05-2018 07:46 PM








RolloTomasi 06-05-2018 09:40 PM

I understand the appeal of huge weekend cards replete with graded stakes worth millions of dollars and copious TV and social media coverage for trainers on the desiccated West coast--especially among those "up and coming" sorts who have it in their heads that there's a spot for them among the training "elite" nationwide--but for Pete's sake, have any of them heard the phrase "shooting for the moon with a bottle rocket"?

Every now and again you hear people out west talk about an "East coast" bias with respect to Eclipse awards and discussions of all-time greats, but after looking at the Saturday overnight I can only conclude one of two things:

(1) they inadvertently help support that perceived bias by sending no-hopers to slaughter or...

(2) these West coast trainers think little of the equine talent back east

Why else...

...is Dark Vader, a colt that barely broke his maiden at Los Al and then got pummeled at Sunland Park, in the Easy Goer when his stronger stablemate, Core Beliefs, fresh from a solid runner-up effort at this very track in the Peter Pan, is sitting it out?

...is Moonshine Memories, the humiliated favorite in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies, fresh of a thorough drilling from Baffert benchwarmer Emboldened in a comeback sprint, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Spectator, pummeled by the aforementioned Moonshine Memories at 2 and pummeled by the noticeably absent Midnight Bisou who in turn failed to make a dent in her own foray out east, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Stormy Liberal, back on a plane for the Jaipur despite racing in Dubai in late March and sporting a history of thorough dustings in both his shipping ventures last year including this very race?

...is Beautiful Shot, who after getting destroyed in both Arkansas and New York earlier this year found some of his best form last out when back in the friendly confines of California, in the Woody Stephens?

...is Ransom The Moon, a noted West coast sprinter who was upset in his comeback race and who I believe has lost all but one of his starts beyond 6.5 furlongs, in the Met Mile?

...is Fashion Business, who finally realized some of the promise he displayed last summer by winning his 4yo debut in a first condition allowance race off a long layoff, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

...is Multiplier, a Triple Crown cast off who finally woke up last out in his first career turf start to win desperately in a blanket finish of non-winners 2x horses, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

Suddenly Bolt D'Oro contesting the Met Mile off a humiliating performance in the Kentucky Derby, in which his jock decided to see if the horse could run a :45 and change 1/2 mile and keep going for another 6 furlongs (he couldn't), makes a lot more sense to me...

Alabama Stakes 06-05-2018 09:42 PM

Saturday Card
 
Wow what a great card of racing. Should be an exciting day especially if hitting a few races along the way. Hopefully somebody is gonna put everyone on a winner that they’ve been waiting on.

richard burch 06-05-2018 10:15 PM

Being in the #1 post might force his hand to go to the front. He will get tired the last 1/8th and come in third or 4th.


Gronkowski....1st time lasix.....oooooohhhhhhhhhhh


Noble Indy.....Blinkers off....working bullets for the Todd master...

Exacta:
3/4/6/9/10
over
3/4/6/9/10


pucknut 06-05-2018 10:22 PM

May win with ease but two straight races with declining g Beyers is not for me.
Going with the Berg to ice the fav

taxicab 06-06-2018 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1110729)

Why else...

...is Dark Vader, a colt that barely broke his maiden at Los Al and then got pummeled at Sunland Park, in the Easy Goer when his stronger stablemate, Core Beliefs, fresh from a solid runner-up effort at this very track in the Peter Pan, is sitting it out?

...is Moonshine Memories, the humiliated favorite in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies, fresh of a thorough drilling from Baffert benchwarmer Emboldened in a comeback sprint, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Spectator, pummeled by the aforementioned Moonshine Memories at 2 and pummeled by the noticeably absent Midnight Bisou who in turn failed to make a dent in her own foray out east, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Stormy Liberal, back on a plane for the Jaipur despite racing in Dubai in late March and sporting a history of thorough dustings in both his shipping ventures last year including this very race?

...is Beautiful Shot, who after getting destroyed in both Arkansas and New York earlier this year found some of his best form last out when back in the friendly confines of California, in the Woody Stephens?

...is Ransom The Moon, a noted West coast sprinter who was upset in his comeback race and who I believe has lost all but one of his starts beyond 6.5 furlongs, in the Met Mile?

...is Fashion Business, who finally realized some of the promise he displayed last summer by winning his 4yo debut in a first condition allowance race off a long layoff, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

...is Multiplier, a Triple Crown cast off who finally woke up last out in his first career turf start to win desperately in a blanket finish of non-winners 2x horses, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

Suddenly Bolt D'Oro contesting the Met Mile off a humiliating performance in the Kentucky Derby, in which his jock decided to see if the horse could run a :45 and change 1/2 mile and keep going for another 6 furlongs (he couldn't), makes a lot more sense to me...

I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.
The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.
And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.
Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).
Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

freddymo 06-06-2018 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by taxicab (Post 1110733)
I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.
The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.
And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.
Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).
Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

This doesn't end well for you

RHT2004 06-06-2018 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1110729)
I understand the appeal of huge weekend cards replete with graded stakes worth millions of dollars and copious TV and social media coverage for trainers on the desiccated West coast--especially among those "up and coming" sorts who have it in their heads that there's a spot for them among the training "elite" nationwide--but for Pete's sake, have any of them heard the phrase "shooting for the moon with a bottle rocket"?

Every now and again you hear people out west talk about an "East coast" bias with respect to Eclipse awards and discussions of all-time greats, but after looking at the Saturday overnight I can only conclude one of two things:

(1) they inadvertently help support that perceived bias by sending no-hopers to slaughter or...

(2) these West coast trainers think little of the equine talent back east

Why else...

...is Dark Vader, a colt that barely broke his maiden at Los Al and then got pummeled at Sunland Park, in the Easy Goer when his stronger stablemate, Core Beliefs, fresh from a solid runner-up effort at this very track in the Peter Pan, is sitting it out?

...is Moonshine Memories, the humiliated favorite in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies, fresh of a thorough drilling from Baffert benchwarmer Emboldened in a comeback sprint, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Spectator, pummeled by the aforementioned Moonshine Memories at 2 and pummeled by the noticeably absent Midnight Bisou who in turn failed to make a dent in her own foray out east, in the Acorn against the top 3yo fillies around?

...is Stormy Liberal, back on a plane for the Jaipur despite racing in Dubai in late March and sporting a history of thorough dustings in both his shipping ventures last year including this very race?

...is Beautiful Shot, who after getting destroyed in both Arkansas and New York earlier this year found some of his best form last out when back in the friendly confines of California, in the Woody Stephens?

...is Ransom The Moon, a noted West coast sprinter who was upset in his comeback race and who I believe has lost all but one of his starts beyond 6.5 furlongs, in the Met Mile?

...is Fashion Business, who finally realized some of the promise he displayed last summer by winning his 4yo debut in a first condition allowance race off a long layoff, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

...is Multiplier, a Triple Crown cast off who finally woke up last out in his first career turf start to win desperately in a blanket finish of non-winners 2x horses, in the Grade 1 Manhattan against an international field of battle-tested horses?

Suddenly Bolt D'Oro contesting the Met Mile off a humiliating performance in the Kentucky Derby, in which his jock decided to see if the horse could run a :45 and change 1/2 mile and keep going for another 6 furlongs (he couldn't), makes a lot more sense to me...

Good stuff

RHT2004 06-06-2018 08:32 AM

My stakes thoughts coming soon.

RHT2004 06-06-2018 08:41 AM

8-1 on Outplay? Feels like a 3-1 shot to me. Absolute loan speed.

RHT2004 06-06-2018 08:45 AM

Is American Gal running Friday? I know it's obvious but Unchained Melody is my top pick if that happens.

RHT2004 06-06-2018 08:48 AM

I'm trying to beat Monomoy Girl. I know she's been great, but this race should set up really well for Caledonia Road, who IMO had a perfect prep. I'll back up with Spectator.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:04 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.