Derby Trail Forums
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Lock of the year (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63257)

RHT2004 10-11-2017 05:55 PM
Lock of the year
 
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

Alabama Stakes 10-11-2017 06:10 PM
The 12 hoss beat him by 5 last time, 6 also finished in front of him in the same race. The MSW race that the one hoss came out of went a full second faster just 5 days later.

knickslions2 10-11-2017 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100900)
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.
Looks like a fun race. I'll pull up pps tomorrow and see what you have here. I like 5-1 so am interested

RHT2004 10-11-2017 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1100901)
The 12 hoss beat him by 5 last time, 6 also finished in front of him in the same race. The MSW race that the one hoss came out of went a full second faster just 5 days later.
Why would the time of a race 5 days later be relevant?

Alabama Stakes 10-11-2017 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100903)
Why would the time of a race 5 days later be relevant?
Same track variant both days. It’s not like it’s 5 weeks later. Chances are that it’s probably close to the same track.
How is he making up the 5 lengths the 12 hoss whipped him ? Just because they paid $240K for him , does not mean he is all that and a bag of chips.

RHT2004 10-11-2017 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1100908)
Same track variant both days. It’s not like it’s 5 weeks later. Chances are that it’s probably close to the same track.
How is he making up the 5 lengths the 12 hoss whipped him ? Just because they paid $240K for him , does not mean he is all that and a bag of chips.
I could care less about his cost. The reason I love him is pretty obvious. Simple trainer stats back it up. He is the best in the game 2nd out. The horse showed me enough speed and enough overall in debut. He rolls Friday.

declansharbor 10-11-2017 10:17 PM
The lock of the year is Chad Brown having an INSANE amount of barns filled to the brim with talent. WOWZAS!

Lock that man up for monopolizing turf races! Sheesh!

fantini33 10-12-2017 09:58 AM
Tough race to have a "Lock" in......but I will be playing the inside runner. Sometimes it isn't just solely 2nd out stats but more the dichotomy between the 1st out 2nd out numbers that tell the story. Tomilinson is, to be kind, poor with firsters.....but excellent next out. I also wouldn't be afraid to use the 2. Took money 1st out and this trainer, while fine with firsters, always get them to improve. Lanerie leaving isn't exactly a ringing endorsement though.

I will be playing Dagneys Warrior in this race, going outside to inside, with the aforementioned trainer numbers.

Best of luck!

taxicab 10-12-2017 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100900)
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.
Strong opinion......best of luck.
She has early speed,fits the main track profile right now.
Good thread......I'll try a lock of the day on Saturday.

Alabama Stakes 10-12-2017 10:12 PM
Sept 16 race
 
The other half of the race that day, which was split, went in 1:10 . The race that Trust came out of went in 1:11 4/5. Is this an angle for you ? Lock of the year in the slow split of the race .
To me all 3 coming out of that race are tossola material. The 9 hoss was awesome in her debut. 9 with 7-8-14

10 pnt move up 10-12-2017 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100900)
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.
This horse can definitely win this race but I highly doubt he is 5/1 unless there is some steam on something not obvious as its well backed connections, second out, after a very strong mdn. 7/2 seems more likely, maybe even lower.

RHT2004 10-13-2017 07:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1100934)
This horse can definitely win this race but I highly doubt he is 5/1 unless there is some steam on something not obvious as its well backed connections, second out, after a very strong mdn. 7/2 seems more likely, maybe even lower.
I gussed 3-1.

knickslions2 10-13-2017 09:10 AM
This race has that bomb look to it. Not sure Trust is fast enough to beat the 12 or the 6 and not sold that was even a good race. I'm looking at the 1 horse and a few other double digits here

Kitan 10-13-2017 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100900)
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.
If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.

blackthroatedwind 10-13-2017 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1100939)
If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.
If you were a bookie, and you gave out 20:1 on random 7:2 shots, you would be broke.

The guy comes here and gives an opinion. He's having some fun. Who do you like in the race? I'll bet $50, loser donates it to TRF, that his horse beats whatever horse you pick.

10 pnt move up 10-13-2017 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100936)
I gussed 3-1.
Seems about right, good luck.

casp0555 10-13-2017 10:49 AM
August Snow is interesting except for the post position and surrounding speed. If I was to take a shot, I would use the Union Rags filly, nice gate work last time and maybe corey will shake some of the ice off...but I doubt you will see 12/1, maybe 5/1...maybe

Kitan 10-13-2017 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1100940)
If you were a bookie, and you gave out 20:1 on random 7:2 shots, you would be broke.

The guy comes here and gives an opinion. He's having some fun. Who do you like in the race? I'll bet $50, loser donates it to TRF, that his horse beats whatever horse you pick.
He said the horse was a lock. I'm having fun by saying I don't like the horse at all and would offer those odds hypothetically. I'm not interested in betting the race, I just don't think his horse is the lock of the year by any means. Anyways it shouldn't be important to you who I like in the race, I think you have your own worries with your own picks...

By the way, 1) if I was a bookie I could afford to make those offers from time to time and 2) have you ever heard of exchange or lay wagering?

RHT2004 10-13-2017 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1100939)
If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.
20-1 Is silly. Even if he runs last, giving me 7x his likely post time odds is ignorant.

blackthroatedwind 10-13-2017 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1100943)
He said the horse was a lock. I'm having fun by saying I don't like the horse at all and would offer those odds hypothetically. I'm not interested in betting the race, I just don't think his horse is the lock of the year by any means. Anyways it shouldn't be important to you who I like in the race, I think you have your own worries with your own picks...

By the way, 1) if I was a bookie I could afford to make those offers from time to time and 2) have you ever heard of exchange or lay wagering?
So you have no opinion, but knocked his?

You didn't need the second paragraph. You were just piling on yourself. What exchange wagering has to do with you obnoxiously criticizing someone else's pick, especially when you don't even have one of your own, will remain a great mystery.

jms62 10-13-2017 12:09 PM
I'd take a shot with 2-Pinot

Kasept 10-13-2017 12:17 PM
Joe & Ed look like they have this cornered with the 1 & 11..

I think you want to add #2 Pinot, by win early Into Mischief, to the mix at 10-1. KEE-based Gorder another guy that does strong work second out, filly got an education in modest debut and drilled a sharp half mile readying for this..

Best Value: #2 Pinot 10-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Trust 5-1 WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #12 Flash n' Dance 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Gorgeous in Rags 12-1 4th

knickslions2 10-13-2017 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1100950)
Joe & Ed look like they have this cornered with the 1 & 11..

I think you want to add #2 Pinot, by win early Into Mischief, to the mix at 10-1. KEE-based Gorder another guy that does strong work second out, filly got an education in modest debut and drilled a sharp half mile readying for this..

Best Value: #2 Pinot 10-1
Next Best: #11 Trust 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Dagney's Warrior 6-1
Super Add; #12 Flash n' Dance 3-1
Ya that 1 scratched so 2 is a must add on for sure. I think the 12 is just faster then the 11 here so I wouldn't use the 11 so Im sure 11 will romp. The 14 horse is interesting that I may dabble a little on. GL

Kasept 10-13-2017 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1100952)
Ya that 1 scratched so 2 is a must add on for sure. I think the 12 is just faster then the 11 here so I wouldn't use the 11 so Im sure 11 will romp. The 14 horse is interesting that I may dabble a little on. GL
#14 August Snow a $1.3MM half to Hoppertunity/Executiveprivlege by Tapit..

10 pnt move up 10-13-2017 01:59 PM
5/1, is that a good thing given the connections? maybe its just that good a race, either way you can send it in at that price on your lock...good luck.

blackthroatedwind 10-13-2017 02:21 PM
Tremendous job.

10 pnt move up 10-13-2017 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100900)
Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEET

robfla 10-13-2017 02:21 PM
great job! - especially with all the dead weight on your back

cakes44 10-13-2017 02:21 PM
BOOM.

knickslions2 10-13-2017 02:22 PM
Well done Joey

jms62 10-13-2017 02:23 PM
Well Done...

Rverge 10-13-2017 02:24 PM
nice hit 7/2!

Alabama Stakes 10-13-2017 02:24 PM
Well done on the lock.

MinnSkinny 10-13-2017 02:24 PM
Good call.

ONTHERAIL 10-13-2017 02:32 PM
Nice Work!!

3kings 10-13-2017 03:12 PM
Nice call at just a tick under 4-1.

Kitan 10-13-2017 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1100947)
20-1 Is silly. Even if he runs last, giving me 7x his likely post time odds is ignorant.
Nice pick RHT. I wouldn't have bet her even at 20-1 because I thought the horse had no chance with the inside speed. Evidently, they both SCRed after I posted. Not backing away from what I said (in fixed odds it doesn't matter) or taking away from your pick, but it definitely changed the race complexion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1100948)
So you have no opinion, but knocked his?

You didn't need the second paragraph. You were just piling on yourself. What exchange wagering has to do with you obnoxiously criticizing someone else's pick, especially when you don't even have one of your own, will remain a great mystery.
I've posted enough picks here for it to be well known I'm not afraid of making my opinions public. Other than to force bets, why do I have to have an opinion on a winner every race? I'm not being paid to pick. Can't my opinion be that I find it hard to like anything and I'd much rather lay against what I think is a bad favourite or low underlay than to take a shot to try and beat him/her? How many times have you taken a random stab against a bad fav only for some other random horse like Snake Oil Charlie to win? Wouldn't you have preferred just to bet against the fav winning?

blackthroatedwind 10-13-2017 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1100974)
Nice pick RHT. I wouldn't have bet her even at 20-1 because I thought the horse had no chance with the inside speed. Evidently, they both SCRed after I posted. Not backing away from what I said (in fixed odds it doesn't matter) or taking away from your pick, but it definitely changed the race complexion.



I've posted enough picks here for it to be well known I'm not afraid of making my opinions public. Other than to force bets, why do I have to have an opinion on a winner every race? I'm not being paid to pick. Can't my opinion be that I find it hard to like anything and I'd much rather lay against what I think is a bad favourite or low underlay than to take a shot to try and beat him/her? How many times have you taken a random stab against a bad fav only for some other random horse like Snake Oil Charlie to win? Wouldn't you have preferred just to bet against the fav winning?

So let's see, you actually gave a caveat for your horrendous opinion ( one man's caveat is another's whine ) as opposed to JUST congratulating him on a sensational opinion.

As for stabs...Snake Oil Charlie? Really? The last time I picked him he won at Aqueduct a couple years ago and paid around $24. You're really on top of your game today. Probably should have quit while you were merely badly behind.

I do, however, give you credit for posting pre-race picks here. That's very fair. You certainly have done a lot of that.

Kasept 10-13-2017 04:03 PM
Great work Joe! That was fun.

Kitan 10-13-2017 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1100975)
So let's see, you actually gave a caveat for your horrendous opinion ( one man's caveat is another's whine ) as opposed to JUST congratulating him on a sensational opinion.

As for stabs...Snake Oil Charlie? Really? The last time I picked him he won at Aqueduct a couple years ago and paid around $24. You're really on top of your game today. Probably should have quit while you were merely badly behind.

I do, however, give you credit for posting pre-race picks here. That's very fair. You certainly have done a lot of that.
$24 isn't random, $100+ in his maiden was. Anyways, criticized for not giving an opinion, lambasted for then explaining my opinion. It's midnight, I don't have time to keep giving you bait. Have a nice day.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:29 AM.
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.