cappin the cup..
 

i view this as a regular card..and dont pay any more attention than i would a daily playable card elsewere...i really wont take a hard look till pps are drawn.. dont get me wrong its racings greatest day but until you know who is in and out ect..its alot of mental anguish in my opinion..thoughts..like watching the works..it just doesnt do anything for me ..its ultra hype time and i dont buy into it....grounded makes for better deisions.in imo......,,what do you guys do..at bc time..

I go with my strong suit... pedigree. At the top level, the usual pedigree angles dont really come into play since most, if not all the horses are already proven in their respective genres.

With that being the case, I look for conditions to change such as rain in the forcast, and then I look at female family.

The theory is that class in a racehorse comes from the female family. I think its pretty all-encompassing which makes it seem less effective than it is, but the cream does seem to rise to the top more times than not.

So, I break down the class of the families behind each runner and then go from there. It worked well for me in the Distaff, J.Fillies, and F&M Turf last year.

I then break down the fields by the way their pedigrees tie in. I especially look for the RF factor in pedigrees and always pay a little more attention to those runners who carry it. Last year Stevie Wonderboy was one I was touting on the RF alone, and he did the theory right.

Everyone has a way to do things, and this one is mine. Pedigree Handicapper to a fault.

you took the words out of my mouth matt...I've glanced at the pp's but can't think about making a final opinion until I know where they have drawn etc...Plus with two of "my" babies in I refuse to back off them even if they won't win, so that's a good way to get my head (or at least my heart) handed to me.

I've looked at the pp's, but won't make any concrete decisions until the night before. I'm really trying to learn about the whole pedigree deal, but I'm definitely not confident enough in my abilities to go off of that alone.

I haven't bothered looking at the PP's. I'll start cracking on Wednesday.

Im with everyone else... I wont really look at the field until the night before. I want to know exactly who will be in the gate. Otherwise, you're wasting a lot of time on thin air.

I have only played 1 BC, but I did very well last year. Pedigree is definitely my weak spot in this sport, but it won't be probably in the next couple of years. I'm really going to try to start learning a lot about that. Pedigrees are really nice when looking at yearlings, two year olds, and first time starters.

However, I am always going to be a movement and performance person. Although I appreciate horses with nice pedigrees such as Bernardini and Empire Maker, it has been my impression that pedigree doesn't mean crap sometimes when applying it to ability on the track. I like to watch how they work and move.

As for looking at the PPs, I will probably start looking over them on Wednesday night, although I have been watching replays of some of the horses in these races even though I have seen them all before. I'm afraid that there is something that I may have missed.

I've got one race left to cap. This is early because I leave on Tuesday, but I want to know all there is to know about every horse. No other day offers such spectacular wagering value and I feel the time spent is time well spent.

Guess I'm on the other side of the fence with this one. I've been going over the PPs since Wednesday, and while I agree that you shouldn't make your final decisions until you see where everyone is drawn, I feel like it's never too early to start mapping things out..

Guess I disagree here. I spend about 10 times longer on the Breeders Cup than any other day...Can't play it like any other day. It derserves more time and I have no problem switching my mind sometimes if I come to different conclusions from looking at the races for a long period.

Ha ha, hadn't seen your post as I was writing mine. Read mine.

i personally can read to much, then not play my first thought.

i read myself right out of the kentucky oaks. thursday night i wrote down Lemons forever and friday before the race scratched her out. then did it again in the Alcibiades. standing in line to place the bet i scratched out Bel Air Beauty, that cost me the tri.

i'll try to wait until friday.:o

i heard that about you... no really the ateam does surgery on a drf...ive seen it....gotta go get some real horspower,,,its nhra from vegas..top fuel ..6.000 horsepower ...my neck is getting red..lol..espn 2....

Jets got hosed by the refs today. I'm just a bit sour about that..

Da Bears.... will look at BC staritng tomorrow. See ya all fri.

I got the Advance on Wednesday and I've just been throwing some stuff around. Its never too early to start I dont think, because the longer I look at something the more likely I'll pick up on things I've missed the first couple of times. This just gives me more time to really go over each horse, but its not like I'm writing anything down before Friday night, but I've given myself a solid foundation.

Just curious - how do you know so much about horse racing? You do not sound like a 19 - 21 year old college student.

You created a name and registered to ask that question. Let me guess, you are a Steelers fan. :eek:

I got the Advance on Wed. also. I like to start with some of it early. Look over pedigrees a little (not my strongest suit), try to get a handle on who will set pace, stalk, close, etc. Then I usually go ahead and get a group of six to eight horses in each race that I have interest in then wait for the final entries on the next Wednesday. I'll be pretty much set up with what I'm going to do by the time I leave Thursday. Then I'll spend Thursday and Friday evening figuring out my pick 3 and pick 4 plays--these are a first for me on BC day. I usually don't play them much, so I'm going to be treading new ground this year. Just another way for me to increase my donations to the pools for all you winners;)

Balletto what is rf?
 

Just curious what is rf? Also I like to wait until the post positions are known. I like to see the works because you can get a look at what horses are liking the track and also see if the horses have developed more, especially the two year olds. You can look at the pps until you are too dizzy.

KNOCK IT OFF Rev. The guy is new to the board and you shouldn't respond to like that. He is asking a simple question.....

Me too Ateam, I haven't been looking at PP's at all but I have looked at EVERY horse TG-wise. I studied for 10 days last year and I had four winners, including Pleasant Home and Shirroco(singled). It should be interesting this year. The Classic and F/M Turf are the only place I can find singles (Ouija Board and Bernardini)

I pretty much have my picks. Only post position and an off track will make me change them.

breeders cup, ive usually picked at least 2 or 3 of my picks at this stage regardless of draw etc.. Araafa is a massive bet at 5-1 in the Mile..,.... Balletto, Germance and Red Rocks are all my fancies despite not taking their initial price. Ill be happy to settle for PMU

Study long, Study wrong. J/K I leave no stone unturned. Depending on PP's Ouija Board on top with Film Maker 2nd and 3rd looks pretty enticing.

The "Rasmussen Factor" (or RF) is a term used to describe inbreeding to a superior female in a pedigree through different individuals within 5 generations.

We're on the same page with the F&M Turf. Film Maker is always the forgotten warrior.

I'm a huge Film Maker fan but this time she's going to have to out-run Ouija Board and Wait A While. While Ouija Board might have had a long campaign, Wait A While is a monster. Great race.

I dont think Film Maker will win, but I would be shocked if she didnt get a place. She's too consistent. Im looking at Wait a While as an all or nothing type of horse. She's either going to blow the field away or go down in flames. Just the feel I get from her. The form she's shown, I think she's your likely winner over a tired and older Ouija Board, but im going to look at the race and the setup closely before I claim her to be my pick.

I couldnt say Ouija Board is tired... yeah shes had 7 races this year, some very tough ones against the fellas, but she hasnt run since the start of Sept and can run well fresh

Oh, I think she will be right there at the finish, but im not sure she has the same step she did in the past. She commands respect from EVERYONE. She is one of the greatest fillies to hit the track in the last 20 years without question... I just dont think she's as dominant as she use to be.

you may be right, but theres a nice few people over here (not me) that have concluded that she ran the best race of her life last time out against Dylan Thomas in the irish Champion stakes..I dont rate the form as highly as that, but I think the extra furlong the race is run at in churchill will be in her favour.. I still believe that she is a better filly over 12f than 10!

Timeform have got her last two efforts (Nassau win @ Goodwood and runner-up to Dylan Thomas) as the two best performances of her career, both rated on 125. Her Oaks win, Arc third and BCFMT win as a 3-y-o were all rated 124, whilst she didn't put up a single performance in the 120s last season. She's as good as ever if not better, and like you Brock, I feel that she is better at trips further than 10f.

I think there are far better bets to be had on almost every other day of the year, especially as I've tended to wrap up my Flat 'capping by this time of the season, and am concentraing largely on the jumps. Given that I can never know as much about the US horses, and can only have a rough idea of what chance the Euro invaders have against them I tend to watch the BC largely as a spectacle and racing fan, having just a few bets (nothing above 4pts) to further the enjoyment.

Hey Hwjb How about Satwa Queen? Her last looks good enough to run these down and at a big number! BBB

I believe in that one, but in my case its the night before and I will only play a few of the races. I have had some bad secondits for over a month, so I won't play much to win.

I'm like a couple of you here that have been going through it bit by bit since Wednesday. Really just looking for eliminations, improving horses, and trying to get a feel for which ones really belong in this company. I think a couple of races will be impacted by the post draw, so nothing set in ink yet, but it does help to get a feel for the pace setups and cut the field down. No way I could download pp's on Friday or Saturday and do a thorough job. At the end of the day, who knows if it will make a difference because this card is really tough, but at least I'll go to the windows confident in my selections.

got some ideas but post position draw is critical in a couple of the races, not a real factor in others due to the placing of the starting gate and the long, long stretch run

i'll probably have, come friday night, all told about 10 hours in the pp's and watching replays of certain horses in certain races

The less I think, the better I do. My best collections have come using the Slew factor; it is a nobrainer for me.:D