Pick 3 time
 

This article is in the DRF but for those who dont have it here is some info on why Pick 3's are a great bet on Cup Day.

Of the 63 Cup pick 3's, 56 have returned more than the parlay
under $100 - 7
$100-$249 - 5
$250-$499 - 10
$599-$1000 - 10
$1000-$2499 - 16
$2500-$5000 - 9
over $5000 - 6

This is pretty amazing if u ask me.

Here is a good example from the article:
1993 BC at SA
Brocco - $8
Kotashaan - $5
Arcangues - $269.20
Pick 3 - $10,669 which was almost 4x the parlay. Arcangues was 133-1 in the win pool but over 500-1 in the pick 3 pool.

Basically, pick 3's are great value.

The last example is a pretty good reason why the ALL button isn't a bad idea sometimes.

Thanks. Those are for $1, I think. Real intersting that 31 of 63 paid over $1000.

He also states in the story that one out of three legs usually goes to a favorite. To me, I'd rather find the pick three's that pay huge, and try and nail them. So, my approach will be to identify probable favorites and/or well-bet horses that I think are quite vulnerable by my own handicapping. At that point, I'll work with the P3's. As Crist said in his book, this is a wager where you don't "cast wide nets" but rather focus and score.

Off the top of my head, I'm leaning towards playing against these probable favorites:

Fleet Indian (Doesn't finish super fast, plenty of quality closers)
Gorella (Some serious Euro's)
Ouija Board (she might be over the top off a long campaign)

Hitting the "all" button is essential if you already identifies the single you are playing. I cannot understand why you wouldnt hit "all" if you are single/4 deep/all. Heck that prob is only like a $48 ticket for a $1. That is a pretty good risk v reward if you ask me.

Crist is absolutely right...however, I am not afriad to go ALL in any leg as long as my other 2 legs are slim. This allows me to focus on two legs to really make a stand.

The favs I will be taking a stand against is Benardini, Caicique/Hurricane Run and Fleet Indian/Pine Island.

The thing is is that I wont be going so deep that I get a longshot in the first two legs. For a $48 ticket, I think the risk of taking a stand against Bern is better than taking a stand against EC. I agree with what you are saying but I am willing to take the risk.

always remember too, that beating the favorite in the first leg of the pick-3 is almost always more valuable than beating the favorite in the last leg of the pick-3, unless that last favorite is odds-on or something.

people like to stay alive on the first leg -- if you can get a bomber in the first race, and then even go fairly chalky in the next two legs, you'll be good to go.

And isnt it a beautiful thing too.....

That is my philosopy in the pick 4 and 6. I want to be "alive" going into the last leg. I could care less if it is 1/2 shot in the last. Just get me there alive. But with the pick 3 and looking at Bern being on just about every pick 3 ticket, I think the value is trying to find someone else in that leg. If I don't hit the first or second I am only out $48. If I am alive going into the last leg of that pick 3 then my $48 ticket is looking pretty good even though I dont have Bern.

I will prob do something like this in the last 3

3
2
9

for $1 that is $54

If we felt Bernardini was a single, and we went 10 / 5 / 1 into him, then we're saying we like each of those horses the same, which of course is not true. We're investing the same on combinations we feel are less likely than combinations we feel are more likely. Crist's book opened my eyes to playing multirace wagers. Doing a one ticket catch call is a terrible move.

Tossing for the sake of tossing is risky. If you think the horse is a legit toss, which to me means the horse has no chance today based on my handicapping, or such little chance he/she is a drastic underlay, that's one thing. But to toss Bernardini just to catch a price, I don't think you're maximizing the potential. History says that one of three favorites typically comes in a p3 in the cup. Despite this fact, the payoffs are still high.

With the classic being the last leg of pk3sand4s Bernie deserves to be my single and hope I get some value in the other races. If Im alive to a single to bernnie, Ill try for some value with a ccouple or 3 other on top of tris.

Agreed with the last sentence. It does not however take the Breeders Cup to prove the point. You can probably take any random 63 races around the country any given day and somewhere darn near 90% of the pick 3's will pay more than the parlay and probably at least 1 will be 3 to 4 times the parlay. Also keep in mind that the payoff on the average will be a function of the field size. Most BC races historically are full fields (12 horses). 12x12x12=1728 possible combination with a 25% takeout is about $1300, 11x11x11 = $1000.

I also think that understanding the 'bias' of a horse player that is a NY'er is likely to use primarly east coast horses, KY the same and West coast usually SA, HOL horses making the pic 3 ticket bias heavy.
Keeping an open mind and combining horses from different circuits usually pay off boxcar numbers when they come in. I think the same thing goes for playing tri's and supers as well. Especially in the sprint and juvi races where the casual player may not be as aware of the horses like they may be with the Classic or Turf.
Just my opinon.

Man, talking about betting philosophy gets me pumped up.

The money Pik3 is gonna be the -

Juvy Filly,Juvy,FM Turf

All/4 or 5 deep/2 deep

i don't think that one will offer much value at all. while the Juvy fillies is an inscrutable division -- there are plenty in the body of the field that can't win unless the other 13 drop dead during the running.

i doubt your JF winner will be over 8-1, this actually seems like one of the more likely chalky pick-3s.

i obviously could be very very wrong -- though i say that assuming your 2 in the FM turf would be ouija board and wait a while.

just thinking out loud.

Juv. Fillies is the most favorite-dominated race of the Cup's history I do believe.

I think there are much better ways to spend $112-$140 on BC day than playing a $1 Pick Three ticket.

The problem in my opinion with Pik 3s are the bet takes a while to unfold. I much prefer to play exactas and tris because you win, you lose, you bet again. Much easier to hadle than hitting the first two legs only to lose in the third and go home with nothing. May be my ADD but it keeps the action going.

having opinions in p3
 

is important to me. I play them alot and find when I try to "buy" a p3 with spreads, I do rather poorly. That meant I really didnot have good opinions of the races and was merely taking shots. The simplist bets are often the most productive ones. I remember in a past BC, it was the first time I stayed home for the telecast and called in bets a few years ago. I saw the segments on vindication in a prep race going to his knees and I liked his guts. I liked Orientate alot and in the Classic, I had no real opinion. I singled, the afore mentioned horses in their races and hit the ALL for the classic, a $12 bet and good old Volponi took it at boxcars and a $1500. p3. Let me tell ya, there is no better wagering feeling than to be live to ALL in the last leg !
Now, when I want to spread out, I confine it to exacta keys with LS on top and bottom. I think the key though in p3 betting is to have a good opinion on the sequence that you like, where you see something, not Wish something. ;)

Not this year
 

Not this year !

I'm the same way... lol. :D

Jim that is correct but just because I have played a Pic 3 I keep on truckin with other bets. My biggest problem is once the 1st leg of your Pic 3 has ran you are locked in with your other selectons many times when I have played Pic 3's and in the 2nd or 3rd leg I have changed my opinion in the race and find myself playing other ways in Exacta, or Trifecta Wagering.

Here is a Question that I have not really looked into, honestly I just don't remember is there an early and late Daily Double on the BC Races or is there a Rolling Double with all the BC Races.

Since I am not a swing-for-the-fences type bettor, I have never been a multirace player. On BC day, there is plenty of value in playing 5 horse exbs in a field with a 3/1 or better fave and hoping your bomb finishes in the top two. For the same amount of money, tris, using 5 horses boxed behind a keyed horse you really like is also attractive. To me multirace bets put me in a position, when dead, to start spending more money than I want because of the need for action.

My BC P3 strategy is to have a key longshot single/race and roll along. I almost never hit the all button.
For example I like-- maybe even love-- Rob Roy in the mile. Unsure of my LS in the FM Turf. I think one of 4 is most likely in the sprint with 3 others possible.
R5 P3's
2x7x1
9x4x1
2x4x6
$98 and if one of my top choices wins R5 or 6 I have it twice and will cash if I'm right in the first two and a little wrong in the mile I still cash.

Say one of the 7 second choices wins R5 I might do
R6
3x1x6
4x8x1 (the "1" being my live longshot in the distaff)
$50.

If Rob Roy wins I have a high likelihood of cashing multiple P3's. Also will have win$ on Rob Roy, and more if not alive after legs A/B.

Maybe its him?????????

Not really but I was totally joking :rolleyes:

is that an andy beyer word?

a degree in english, while professionally useless, gave me a pretty decent arsenal of ten dollar words.

[quote=point given] I saw the segments on vindication in a prep race going to his knees and I liked his guts. I liked Orientate alot and in the Classic, I had no real opinion. I singled, the afore mentioned horses in their races and hit the ALL for the classic, a $12 bet and good old Volponi took it at boxcars and a $1500. p3. Let me tell ya, there is no better wagering feeling than to be live to ALL in the last leg !
QUOTE]

This bet does not add up since there is no way the Juvy, Sprint, and Classic would be in the same P3.

[quote=Slewbopper]You are right. The Juvy did start the pick 3 that day with Vindication, but the turf was the middle race which was won by High Chapparal at 4/5. Pick 3 payed 1400 and change for $2.

My Bad
 

[quote=bogeydaman]I guess my memory is going. I could have sworn it was Vindication, Orientate and Volponi p3. Sorry for the confusion, but I have rest now. My brain has been over worked .