11/4 - My Budget - Your Suggestions
 

Plain and simple, when I roll into Churchill on 11/4 I will have $200 for gambling. I am undecided; however, on my betting strategy for this day as it is unlike any others. I am now strictly for the most part a Pick 3, Pick 4 and Win wager kinda guy. No way am I attempting a Pick 4. Should I roll with Win bets on each race or Pick 3's or a small combo of both? My concern is that this day is so wide open at times that I wil go too deep in the Pick 3's that it will be over before it starts, see what I am saying?

Most important is I wanna have fun and drink a few,meet some of you all, etc but I wanna cash a darn ticket as well. What is your experience, plan for this wide open day?

pic the races you feel confident in and go for it. BC day I usually find a couple of partners and play wide pic 3 and 4 tickets in the 200-300 range.

It's a day by beating favorites payoffs can be HUGE. Remember a lead off pic 3 that paid 300K plus. (Was the day Tinow beat Giants Causeway for the Classic) and we missed it by one horse.

Another favorite bet we make as a group is find 4 people, throw in 6 bucks a piece, each choose a horse and box the 4 in a dollar tri. Most importantly is never bet what you're not willing or can't afford to lose. This game is much more fun that way.

With a $200 bank the exacta pool may be your best bet. There will probably be some big ones and by no means are you under bankrolled playing em. Good Luck :D !

$200 is a good amount. If you are only going to bet the BC races that gives you $33 bucks per race. But there is a strategy you could employ with the Pick 3. If you hit the first leg you do not need to make a new bet for the 2nd leg because you are already "alive." That allows you to skip a race and then you can roll that $33 set aside for the 2nd leg and start a pick 3 in the 3rd leg. So then you have $66. Does this make sense?

I plan on picking one horse in each race and wheeling it. . . hoping for bombs underneath. . .

I would put $100 of it on Happy Ticket's nose and pray you get 5-1 on her....

stay with what you do best. pik 3's can really pay nice on bc day.

p3s and exacta savers
 

Your p3 bets dont have to be large spreads. See what races you feel strongly about and try a couple of singles to cut the bet size down. Then you can spread some exacta keys to keep it rolling. if you hit a nice exacta, you will be fat to spread some p3's. :cool:

$200 on beer and have fun.

Look me up. I will be in the clubhouse section 300's. When you find me, tell me who you are and hand me $100. I will then proceed to kick you square in the nuts and tell you to leave the track immediately. This way you will be leaving CD feeling the same way as you would after dumping your whole bankroll, except you will still have $100 left over!!

Good luck!!

:D

BRILLIANT!!:cool:

I think exacta's might be your way to go, I generally don't advocate boxing horses, usually play your best bet hard and then have some savers, but on BC day you may want to spread a little. Maybe even spread more on the Mile and the Juvy races, because I don't think it's going to be worth it in the Sprint and Classic with Henny and Bernardini...Unless, you really think one of those two are going to run out, but I don't see it happening..

Take that part of your budget for the Sprint and Classic, and spread ex's and tribox's on the Juvy and Mile. More bang for your buck! Then you can end the day with a moderate pik3 with a single and widen it for a bigger score. Yeah..that's the ticket!:D

I've gotta say that I would follow PBA's program if I were you Curt.

I think exactas are the way to go. Boxing 5 horses for a buck only costs $20 a race. Also if you really like a horse to win, box five behind that horse in the tri...again a $1 bet costs $20.

If you feel like you got kneed in the nuts from losing $200
you don't need to be playing
I've felt like I've been slapped in the face
mainly by the unfairness of stewards
but never a hit to the nuts, that smarts for a long while!

I wouldn't be afraid to start out with a pick 3 in your situation. You can still cover two legs deep if you can a find a leg that you can single or keep it 3 horses or less.

Good thing about a multi-race bet is that it can hold your interest for longer than going deep in the tri or super and obliterating your bankroll in just one race. Assuming you hit the first leg, the pick 3 becomes even more exciting in the second and third legs.

Exactas could pay huge and maybe part wheels 3 horses over 4 are just $9 a pop on the buck.

Too bad they don't have dimes or 50 cent P4s. I don't know if you can bet on other tracks while at Churchill. Most of the tellers may only be handling CD bets like they do on Derby weekend.

$200 isn't a bad bankroll. It's more than a lot of people will have!

that's my plan for the day :)

and i don't think that 5-1 will be such a problem. that's the low end of what i'm expecting on her given her unwillingness to win races lately.

I like Pick 3's myself, but Breeders Cup day is a day for the same race exotics. You'll have a better chance of catching real bombs on the bottom of those because there are so many quality runners that get overlooked that hit the board.

this is the best advice. on big days like derby day and bc day a lot of people start looking for crazy angles and/or start betting differently than they typically do. in my opinion, that is stupid.
go with what you do best.
if you like wins and pick 3's....play them, and try to cap it like you always would.
it can be a good day for beating favorites....but don't get too caught up in this either. sometimes bc races have so many good horses in them that the favorite you are trying to beat is a genuine superstar sitting on the board at 7/2. would you ignore that on any other day of the year? of course not....so it isn't wise to do it on this day either.

also, while it is important to bet this day like any other day, you should remember not to watch it like any other day. for example, if you decide to bet against bernardini in the classic and he draws off to win by 10....don't be so pissed about your bet that you forget to appreciate what you just saw.

last piece of advice. like any other day your goal should be to make money. sounds obvious right? but a lot of people....especially on these big days.....are so intent on turning their $200 into $10,000 that they end up turning it into $0. If you turn your $200 into $250.....you had a great day in my book.

that was fine fine advice. i agree with all of that.

also keep in mind that show bets somehow become profitable on this day. you can easily double your money on show bets, even when the favorite runs in -- it's like the derby where all those prices go up. stacked wps bets have been good to me in the past, something like $5 win, $10 place, $20 show. even if your horse shows, you're going to show a profit.

Hell, if you start with 200 and end with 200 thats a win. A days worth enjoyment for free.

This is a terrific thread-- can it please, after it's run its course be moved to the retired reading board?

Thanks guys; very insightful and I'm learning a lot!

The real important thing is to not buy any beer at the track. Hide it in your back pack and it will save you $50.

Bring more money. Just in case. The best day of racing each year deserves a minimum of a grand to play. Bet between 100-150 each of the first 4 races. Scale back if you hit nothing. Press if you do....There is no second place on Breeders Cup day. You go for it.

I agree. I like to bet more on BC day because there is potential for huge scores. But unfortunately I haven't had any huge scores on BC day to date. Maybe this year :D .

What? Why not bring a minimum of $10k on a day like this?

1. Take what you can afford to lose.
2. Bet to win. Or modest p-3's. Or Exacta boxes keying your horse.
3. Don't bet to place or show. Ever.
4. Make sure that you bet the horses you really like to win. You can go 3x3x3 all day long playing p-3s on your dudget, But just make sure that you have the $$ to bet $20 or $30 to win on the two or three horses you like the best on the card.
5. It's a great day of racing, but that doesn't mean you are compelled to play every race.
6. Conversely, don't be scared to toss a few $$ at two or three 20-1+
shots in a few races.

i just don't agree with that. there is no way you need "a minimum of a grand". $200 to play with is plenty to have a nice mixture of pick-3's and single race bets.
everyone has their own budget.....and not everyone can afford to lose $600 on the first 4 races as you suggest.
but i think where i disagree with you the most is where you say a person should "press" if they start winning. to me that is not sound advice, and a good way to give back the $$ you earned with good capping skills.
stick to your gameplan!
oh and of course.....if you really don't like a race.....don't be afraid to skip it....or just bet $5 on it. Feeling that you must play every race is stupid....especially on bc day. at a normal day at the track....skipping a race is boring b/c you might not want to just sit back and enjoy a $12,000 maiden-claimer.....but if you lay off a bc race.....you can sit back and enjoy the race b/c of who the horses are......and just cheer on your $5 win bet.

this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

what if perfect drift is in the race? don't you think a $10 place and a $10 show bet is appropriate?

I'm going to bring $200,000
 

Saying how much to bring makes about as much sense as telling me what horse to bet on in each race. We all have our views as well as different financial constraints.

If the author is asking about betting style that's a bit different. I think there's bigger risk BC day because of the long shots but also bigger reward. So you have decide, like poker, which way you want to play. Conservative makes the W,P,S attractive and you have a good chance of coming home with money while being more aggresive < pick 3, means your chances are to come up empty, but you may hit the mother load.

As for me, did I say $200,000, I meant 200,000 lire = $137

the only time I ever think of betting to place or show is when there is a huge minus pool chalk I think can run out. That's it. But even in these situations, I'd rather play an single race exotic, especially a tri or super, which I only play when I think a bad chalk will run out. If like a horse at odds and don't care for the chalk, I will use my choice second in exactas and tris. I've tracked all my wagers for years and betting to place/show just does not pay due to breakage and takeout. And I'd rather take my chances putting those place or show $$'s on my pick to win or waiting for another race. Just the way I see it. I see your point about Perfect Drift, but so do plenty of other bettors as well so he may well be undervalued in those pools. It's just not for me. But, good luck!!

Hey I have no problem with everyone having their own budget. But this is a day to go for it. And when I say press, I'm not saying to piss your money away on the next few races, but increase the % bankroll on exotics....I think every race you can make money on, even a chalky race with exotics. Therefore, there are no races I skip on BC day.

on BC day, there is almost no such thing as bring "undervalued" in a place or show pool unless it's the favorite you're betting on. hell, gorella paid $6.00 to show last year and that was a gimme.

this is the one day all year where i very strongly advocate place and show wagering, especially if you're on a budget. it's the easiest way to make money on BC day, you're not going to make a huge score, but if you're in tune with even half of the day, you'll come out ahead.

If it hasn't rained during Breeders Cup week(and isn't raining B.C. DAY,)then I would play a pick 6 with the money.There are too many good low priced horses to go fishing for a price in every race.You'll just go broke,and be bitter at Pletcher etc.So,in 4 of the 6 races,use the 2 horses in each race that you really think will get you the winner.DON'T CONSIDER ODDS(for once.)In one of the races,I would try to come up with a horse you like at a price(this is your favorite price horse of the day.........like last year when Shug hooked up a horse to nature's nitro.) Then in the last leg, wheel a race(one of these races is often simply stupid.)So,cap 5 races,and don't cap 1 of them.After all,most people are trying to cap all 6,and logic is overrated when your talking about 6 races in a row.So,go 2x2x2x2x1x all.I would actually go in with others (so you can make it 3x3x3x3x1xall.)I would make sure to wheel one race though.You simply need to do that,and you need one decent paying single.

[quote=avance2000]this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

QUOTE]

In that situation I would not bet place. I would bet all exactas with him Maybe box him with 5 others. 10 - $1 bets.

In contentious 12 to 14 horse races (3/1 or better fave), I really think the way to go is boxing 5 horses in the exacta. 20 bets. To break even the payoff has to be $40 ($2). You will see very few exactas under $100 in fields like this.

In races where I really like a horse, I will key them on top in a 5 horse tri box. At Lone Star, I had Ouija (9/10) keyed with 7 boxed behind her in the tri. Cost $42. I left Wonder Again off my ticket because she had the outside post in a field of 12. Could have bumped my ticket to $56, but I was too cheap. Somebody had to go. $2 tri was about 380.

Oh, the heartbreak of almost winning.

Brian,
To me, there's no gimmes. Just not my style to bet p/s. But, good luck.
Pizza Bob's still there in Ann Arbor (State Street next to Campus Corners Liquor Store)?

Please let me know who this year's $6.00 to show gimme is!

good luck!

I disagree with Randall, not about the money thing, but about going heavy in the first four races.

I think the first few races of the day are where you have to just dabble and experiment, and get a feel for what kind of day it's going to be, and how the track is playing. For instance, if you can't understand how the horses who won the first few races were even allowed to enter, you probably should scale back and take it easy until things start making sense again.

Here's what I did in '04 with ABOUT your budget..

Early pick four ($30).. Got 3/4.. Don't get me started.. ****ing Speightstown.
Win bet ($20).. On Singletary.. Got lucky here and had a little more to play with.
Cheap pick six ticket ($40).. Ended up getting 3/6 which is better than some people with much larger tickets did.
Late pick four ($40).. Busted when Wilko won.
Late double ($160).. Straight.. Kitten's Joy and Ghostzapper.. Still can't believe KJ lost.

As you can see, I didn't make many bets, but rather focused on the horses I really liked and the exotics I had a strong feeling about.

I'd say this would be the best approach to make $, but at the same time, it requires a lot of patience.

Whatever you decide to do, HAVE FUN!

Ateam,
To me that's not going heavy at all. You are simply using your money in a way where you have a chance to make a score early. If you have no good feeling on a race, then obviously you should play it for less, but I think people make mistakes by simply going easy early and big late. Sometimes the bombs come in early, and if you are playing conservatively you miss the payday.

The point is you're pretty much going into the races blind if you give an equal amount to the early races.. You don't know how the track's gonna be playing or what kinda feeling for the day the early races are gonna give you. To me, it's much easier to get a feel for what the day's gonna bring before I invest heavily. Unless I have a horse I absolutely love no matter what in the early races.