American Pharoah...
 

on your ticket or a bet against?

big on...i like horses that lift their legs high in the stretch.

On. Horse to beat. I think the opinion that he will be a pace casualtie is wrong.

Superstar for sure health is the issue for me
Seems like a glass horse

Most likely winner....

Not on my tickets...dont like that he hasn't been battle tested

only underneath ;)

Can't find any reason to bet against him (or Dortmund).

Speaking as a bettor and not a fan I'm hoping either he or Dortmund draw the 1-3 hole.

Most definitely ON.

Biggest cinch since Big Brown. Wins in a walk over. Horrible win bet at les then 4/1 regardless. I think he is a lot better then these and I agree based on solely his races in afternoon he should be second choice in waging at between 5 and 7/1.

Will try and get him on top with Upstart, Frosted, Danzig Moon, international Star inderneath in tri's supers.

AP will face 8 or less in Preakness and 7 or less in Belmont. Assuming he is healthy he wins TC.

I think he will be overbet and will not be using him. That said, like Dellinger I hope Am Pharoah and/or Dortmund end up on the rail.

--Dunbar

This.

I agree 100%

Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.

Betting against, but not because I think he can't be a star

There will be millions of dollars bet on horses because people like their name or color or 14 is their lucky number, that will counter balance the hype substantially. Remember on paper he is at least the 2nd most likely winner and has such pitching him to win is a dubious prop. Is he not an "A" on every smart handicappers vertical wager? Would you ever want to lose a pick 3/4/6 because you pitched AP because of hype and deflated odds?

I wouldnt bet him to win either regardless if I think he wins by 6

Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.

if you're leaving him off, all i can say is good luck.

I'm not leaving him off the top, but would be much better off if he runs 3rd.

I have seen a few mention that AP will have trouble rating behind Dortmund.

Do people really believe that's a likely scenario???

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

From what I've seen, he'll win and so will I.

If he's still getting better, then look out field. Yes, bad trip and bad racing luck may cause him to lose, but rather that than watching him trounce which I think he will.

My thoughts exactly. I am ordering a Frosted shake.

Sitting in the clear off a 45.4 half doesn't get a check mark from me either.Sure he relaxed. Didn't expect him to be running off into those fractions.

I love the post he drew.

which is?

18

thanks, dont like that at all, better than 1 or 2 but damn he is in the grandstands.

It's a great draw for him

why?

agree completely.

His race to lose now, with Firing Line and Stanford drawing outside of Dortmund.

I agree with you, Nick. I also think that Dortmund deserves to be favored over AP.

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

I think every horse needs that. You need to get position moving forward in any race, not just the Derby. AP seems like the faster horse early.

For those that believe AP's numbers aren't that great relative to the field, he does have the best rag # by .75.

Hell, even Bolo's best dirt rag is faster than Dortmunds.

Not tactics, but just raw ability.

He's just so much better.

talking Baffert...it Is A Little Strange To Have 1 Trainer Likely Running The 2 Post Time Favs.

I Mean... How Can He Not Be Pulling For 1 Just A Little bit More?

they both have good posts...their race to lose.

i think firing line has a shot.

I think it's good for him. He'll break fast, as will many, should be able to avoid a lot of the early jostling and even if he's 3-4 wide in the clubhouse turn he'll be able to deal with that.

If the post draw affected my picks at first glance, it's that I'm paying more attention to Far Right and thinking I will want to include him in my exotics. Looking for Mike Smith to make a left turn straightaway, save ground, and begin picking them off on the far turn.

My thoughts exactly, I can just picture far right and mike smith taking the lead in deep stretch.

I thought this, too, but listening to Mig talk about Dortmund yesterday gives me hope that he can get stopped yet get back into his huge stride quickly.

I'm still trying to figure out if we're looking at a sensible opening half or a pace meltdown.