Derby Favorite
 

Who do you think will be the derby favorite? I know this conversation is like a week too soon and we will have a better idea after next week. But I think as a whole this years crop looks like another solid one and I can see the favorite like 5-1 or so. As of now not much separates Dortmund, Materiality, American Pharaoh, Carpe Diem, Internatonal Star etc... and who knows how Mubtaahij fits into all of this. Granted maybe this will change after next week but right now as we stand today its hard to see a favorite at less then 5-1...

The race certainly has added some speed (or more for that matter), with the additions of Stanford and Materiality.

doubt we get a long shot winning it this year bunch of good horses at the top of the class

The good thing is that it's open because we have some really fast young 3yo's with decent pedigrees who don't need the lead. In many recent years, handicapping the Derby was tough because you didn't see a lot of particularly fast routers (+/-105 Beyer types), so it was a game of figuring out who was suited to pop a big number under fast paces.

You're also getting three runners expected to take a lot of money (three of the top five, excluding field, from the last future wager pool), American Pharaoh, Materiality and Mubtaahij, that won't win the Derby. That means you'll get relatively good odds on Dortmund or Carpe Diem, and overlay odds on runners who normally wouldn't be in the mid teens or higher in other years, such as Upstart.

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

Idk about the 2-1 part.

It's tough to envision ANY horse going off at 2-1 in this year's KD, too wide open. There really isnt a 'standout' like Cali Chrome was last yr, imo.

Cant wait for the gate(s) to open!

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

I see 4/5-1 unless something sensational happens.

My guess is Dortmund at around 7-2. There's no way anyone will be close to 2-1.

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

Might be right.

Let's just hope I'm DEFINITELY right in choosing which 4 will hit the line first! :D


There's just so many choices with this crop, I'm hoping Firing Line gets overlooked because he beat up on lesser quality in the Sunland Derby, but his close calls w/ Dortmund will keep his number from being high.

I'm already all in on AP in futures, so I really don't care what odds anyone goes off at.

Probably right with 20 horses. The last (2) winners that were 2-1
were Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus. If Dortmund wins the SA Derby
I think he'll be 2-1 or 3-1 at highest. That would make him 8 8 0 0
and Baffert is his trainer, those two things alone will take a lot of money

hope you are right.
carpe diem on double digits= get some

would be SHOCKED if C.D. is more than 6-1.

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

I think he will be at best 6-1. I can see him at 10-1 or higher easily especially when AP romps this weekend

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

I would imagine an unbeaten, 17 hand tall giant of a horse who is likely to get a ton of pre race hype, who crushed in california, is likely to get a bit more play...well see I guess.

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

Playable for the win that is.

I think there are several horses that look better than CD.

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

Yeah man, I just don't see in him what people are so in love about.


I think his BCJ performance is pretty telling.

CD played the schedule did nothing wrong
are we using this weeks beyers as a barometerif so does anyone really think frosted is better?

Sure do. Frosted not only ran faster than Carpe Diem, he did so with a much more taxing trip. There is no easier trip in dirt racing than stalking cheap speed in the two-path with no one challenging you from the outside. Saying CD "did nothing wrong" is basically giving him points for not tripping over himself and losing an unlosable race. He's a nice enough horse, but the likelihood of him improving a half-dozen or so lengths while encountering the toughest trip of his life is very slim.

I don't use those figs at all when figuring out who I like.

Flat out Frosted was more impressive than CD.

keeneland is a brand new track
what formed the baseline for the figures?
CD picked his route to the derby won both races easily
the derby will be the third start off the layoff
we know he loves keeneland ky lets see ie he loves louisville ky too
we know racing on different surfaces and traveling to different tracks is no issue
gotta love horse racing different opinions abound and we get to settle our differences at the window
losers shred ticket like confetti
winners smile and wallets fatten

The mad love for Carpe Diem is pretty puzzling, except that it's hard to find an actually responsible positive opinion of his chances in the KY Derby. The best idea is some version of " he looks like a really good horse to me " which I guess makes sense since he has never done anything to suggest he is a serious player in this Derby, and plenty to suggest otherwise.

Yeah, and where is there any potential upside to this colt? Turf??

I just don't get it.

how about CD is regally bred
his breeding screams he will easily get the derby distance
in all of his victories margin is at least 2.5 lengths
has shown the ability to travel and adapt to different race tracks

I can see why lots of people like him 5 4 1 0
(2) gr 1's and gr 2 win, great breeding, good connections
has won from on and off the pace.
His speed figures are on the low side though
top (5) horse imo

lots of horses are well bred, have the pedigree, and win by good margins and travel well.
but, are they fast enough to keep up with the fastest?

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

Honestly i have never seen AP run, but Dortmund's win in the SA derby was kind of a cake walk as well, yet everyone praises the performance as life altering. My take, he was up against a field in which NOBODY closed, and nobody pressured him....he put away horses IMO have no business heading to KY.....yet he dominated, which he should have, somewhat like CD.

I think a lot of people are putting emphasis into his race 2 back against FL, especially since FL goes out and dominates the Sunland Derby by 15. Personally, i think a better horse, a horse who can close would/should have gone by Dortmund that day, i don't think FL wanted to go by.....having said that, i believe if horses are given the same chance/scenario as FL, they will go by in the derby



-bt-

It's potentially problematic for all 20 horses, but I think it's a bigger adjustment for horses like Carpe Diem who have never had a hair in their path their whole career.

Carpe Diem is a slightly less talented version of Gemologist. There was great hysteria about him too.

The thing that's going to crush him is the hot pace. He has had one cupcake stalking trip after another, and his garbage time rally in the BCJ when no better than 4th best in actuality does not belie those pace concerns.

what i keep hearing is that the 3rd choice horse has no shot b/c he's had unbelievably easy races.....but nobody is really providing opinions or chances of those who will be higher odds then him.

it seems like everyone thinks that the derby is AP and Dort.......then everyone else. Personally, i look at this as a 20-horse cavalry charge, and i'm looking for value. I've heard a few mention Frosted as interesting, but nobody is offering a solid opinion for the case of others

-bt-