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-   -   Does Vacare have a chance? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5616)

intense 10-12-2006 08:40 PM

Does Vacare have a chance?
 
I've loved Vacare ever since I saw her break her maiden live @ AP.

Heres her entry for this Saturday @ Keeneland, does she have a shot? I like the 20-1 ML.


9th (5:35)
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. (G1)
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Surface: Turf Fillies Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes
Purse $500,000.
Prg.# PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML

1 Take the Ribbon Espinoza V Dollase Wallace 121 8-1
2 Citronnade Prado E S Frankel Robert 121 15-1
3 Magnificent Song Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 121 3-1
4 Vague Baze T C Noseda Jeremy 121 15-1
5 Trick's Pic Martinez W Biancone Patrick L 121 30-1
6 Foxysox (GB) Nakatani C S Gaines Carla 121 10-1
7 Germance Mendizabal I Rouget Jean-Claude 121 5-2
8 Maxxi Arte (IRE) Valenzuela P A Cassidy James 121 12-1
9 Vacare Marquez C H Jr Block Chris M 121 20-1
10 Quiet Royal Peslier O Parias Carlos L 121 12-1
11 Mauralakana (FR) Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 121 7-2

Blue Eyes 10-12-2006 08:42 PM

With C.H. Marquez aboard, at least you know he'll be trying. The boy likes his money.;)

ateamstupid 10-12-2006 10:22 PM

I definitely would use her. She's done nothing but blow away everyone she's faced. It's a class rise, for sure, but so was her last race, and she handled that pretty damn well. I was very impressed with the Pucker Up win.

dellinger63 10-12-2006 11:09 PM

Chris Block usually never puts horses where he thinks there is no chance as he is from Bill Mott U. Definately use.

intense 10-13-2006 12:22 AM

Do you guys think she has a legit chance to win? Im thinking of a pretty large WPS wager on her. I dont know what she'll go off at but the 20-1 ML is pretty arousing.

blackthroatedwind 10-13-2006 12:46 AM

I don't like her but she handled Ballet Pacifica just as easily as Germance, who is one of the favorites, did in Europe last time.

ateamstupid 10-13-2006 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
Do you guys think she has a legit chance to win? Im thinking of a pretty large WPS wager on her. I dont know what she'll go off at but the 20-1 ML is pretty arousing.

Yeah, I find that ML very hard to believe on a horse as hot as this one. I don't see her going off at better than 8/1, and I think that even might be a stretch. There are some nice ones in here, for sure, but there are no monsters, and I'd use her in all wagers.

intense 10-13-2006 01:17 AM

Found the PPs

http://www.espn.com/media/horse/RACE5_061014.pdf


I love Vacare here, seems to be no world beaters in here and she'll be at a price. The ones that scare me are 2,3,7.

Cunningham Racing 10-13-2006 08:32 AM

She has a shot if she can replicate that kick away from ARL....her turn of foot is not a fluke IMO

intense 10-14-2006 12:48 PM

bump bump. Im really excited for this race.

bellsbendboy 10-14-2006 12:56 PM

On paper she has no chance. She did not make the races until June as a 3yo. She picks up big weight and catches a legit Grade One bunch.

One of the positives is that Marquez flew in to work her Monday and she was MEGA impressive. BBB

randallscott35 10-14-2006 04:41 PM

Good call buddy. Sorry you didn't get 20-1 but she ran really nice for you.

intense 10-14-2006 04:42 PM

yea vacare!

ateamstupid 10-14-2006 04:42 PM

Yezzir. Hope you crushed it intense.. Told you that morning line was a joke.

Blue Eyes 10-14-2006 04:45 PM

WOOHOO!! Thanks Intense for bringing this one to my attention. The only one I bet today. And it's great seeing one of my buddies win a big one. Carlos is always hungry for these kinds of wins.:D

Scav 10-14-2006 04:50 PM

ARLINGTON REPRESENT yet again.....While I am not a huge fan of Block because of what he is doing to Mystery Giver, I bet deep down he wishs his first Grade 1 was with one of monster IL homebreds. Guarantee as long as she stays health she is pointed towards the Beverly D.

ninetoone 10-14-2006 04:56 PM

Nice freekin' call!

GPK 10-14-2006 05:07 PM

was alive to the NTRA pick 4 for $2 with Mag. Song as a single. Why I single Gomez...I have no idea.:mad:

intense 10-14-2006 05:07 PM

I hope theres a bomber in this next race, I got a $1 daily double 9/all ticket. Some HUGE willpays if something big comes in.

Bold Brooklynite 10-14-2006 05:11 PM

Nice call.

Vacare is certainly well-bred for a filly who came from out of the blue. She's got very strong turf blood on top through Lear Fan and Roberto ... and strong bloodlines throughout her pedigree.

intense 10-14-2006 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by intense
I hope theres a bomber in this next race, I got a $1 daily double 9/all ticket. Some HUGE willpays if something big comes in.


ugh, chalk on poly to kill the huge possible double payout, damnit. $55 on the $1 I believe, most of the prices were in the 200-900 range though, oh well.

my miss storm cat 10-14-2006 05:35 PM

Nice call. Congrats. :)

point given 10-14-2006 08:47 PM

hot hoss indeed
 
didnot read this board before the race, but Moss and Levin on the Broadcast took her , so i took another look see and put her in. Caught the late p4 due to listening, wouldnot have had her myself and when she was rank going into the first turn, i didn't give her a nickels chance, wrongo ! Marquez setttled her down very nicely down the backstretch, nice ride . Almost got me out for the day ;)

sumitas 10-14-2006 09:16 PM

Great call. This one, on a pedigree basis, is a big surprise.

SundayStar 10-14-2006 09:21 PM

good call. she's a runner. i loved the way she ran in the pucker up.

Scav 10-14-2006 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
Great call. This one, on a pedigree basis, is a big surprise.

Please explain your opinion on this because from what I can see, you couldn't be more wrong. She is bred to do exactly what she did, turf route

Scav 10-14-2006 09:22 PM

Matter of fact, she will get better when they go long

sumitas 10-14-2006 09:27 PM

Her family is non descript. There is little evidence this type of success was possible from a mediocre heritage. I would question her breeding prowess down the road. I would guess she went for a modest sum at auction, if she went that route. But she is a running leader of this little known 7 family and she is breaking new ground.

PSH 10-14-2006 10:12 PM

Vacare
 
Like to remind everyone Vacare was the horse Oracle was touting and trying to buy for a client before the second career race. Sure was right about that one. Way to go Mike!

PSH

Scav 10-14-2006 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
Her family is non descript. There is little evidence this type of success was possible from a mediocre heritage. I would question her breeding prowess down the road. I would guess she went for a modest sum at auction, if she went that route. But she is a running leader of this little known 7 family and she is breaking new ground.

She is a homebred

Antitrust32 10-15-2006 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
She is a homebred


Does anyone else agree that this race was a totally playable trifecta.... that paid 1500. Magnificant Song won against a WEAK field in the Garden City, and those Euro horses were running against a lot better horses overseas. And of course Vacare... which you guys tabbed before the race.

I personally liked the 10 horse at 23-1. Unfortunatly I only bet win and place on her and she ran third. But if (and I hate that I always say If but I am too much of a wimp to spend a lot of money betting a race) I would have played the tri.... those three horses would have been on the ticket.

Anyone hit the tri? In my opinion, one of the easier hits for a 1500 payoff in horse racing.

ateamstupid 10-15-2006 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Does anyone else agree that this race was a totally playable trifecta.... that paid 1500. Magnificant Song won against a WEAK field in the Garden City, and those Euro horses were running against a lot better horses overseas. And of course Vacare... which you guys tabbed before the race.

I personally liked the 10 horse at 23-1. Unfortunatly I only bet win and place on her and she ran third. But if (and I hate that I always say If but I am too much of a wimp to spend a lot of money betting a race) I would have played the tri.... those three horses would have been on the ticket.

Anyone hit the tri? In my opinion, one of the easier hits for a 1500 payoff in horse racing.

Superfecta wasn't that difficult either. Always easier to say after the fact, but the first four finishers were all logical. Then again, I used eight of the ten horses in the Pick Four ticket I wrote up (but thankfully didn't play), so I probably would've had to bet a lot of combinations to hit it.

disappearingdan_akaplaya 10-16-2006 10:25 AM

CH did 1 helluva job on her saturday. she came out super rank and he got her to settle down really well on the backstretch and was ultra patient on her! ive been saying it for a few years now that ch is 1 of the best turf riders in the country, as he proves saturday hes very good overall at just getting a horse to relax for him


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