Who is most likely to knock off Bernardini?
 

This thread is NOT to rank the horses in the Classic but is intended to speculate on who has the best chance of knocking off Bernardini and winning the race. My opinion:

1. David Junior - We know this is a world class horse at ten furlongs and the pedigree suggests he should handle the dirt. Hate the layoff but if he really does benefit from it then he has the talent to take down 'Dini. Probably the only horse that could do it on talent.

2. Sun King - If you can't beat Bernardini on talent then a speed duel seems the next most logical way it could happen. Sun King has run a couple very big races this year in the Met Mile and Whitney and if the speed collapses he seems the most likely to fire from the back of the pack and win the race.

3. Invasor - Fired off the layoff in the Suburban and is undefeated outside of Dubai. Could sit off the pace and pounce at the end especially if Bernardini gets a rocky trip.

4. Lava Man - Assuming he doesn't have a problem with Churchill he still has a lot to overcome. Hard to imagine in a 14 horse field that he could get very comfortable on the front end and it is tough to imagine he'd get a dream stalking trip. If all goes well and he can improve on his California form (a big if) then he has an outside shot.

5. Giacomo - If it isn't Bernardini or any of the four I listed above then the only thing I can imagine would be a repeat of the '05 Derby where even the closers went too fast early and had nothing left in the tank at the end and a plodder like Giacomo was able to pass them all in the stretch. We all know he likes Churchill so why just settle for the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and instead be the most unlikely horse to win the Derby and the Classic. Internet forums would most likely explode.

One of three horses, Lava Man, Invasor, or Sun King. Have to see which Euros are going as well.

Giacomo? Unless he is running 9f and Bernardini 10f he has no chance.

The only competition for Bernardini is going to be Secretariat's track record. I think it will be close.

Easily Invasor. None of the others make me think its possible.

Invasor is the one with the best shot IMO.

I'd say Lava Man and Sun King, if the trip scenarios work out right.
I hope Europe sends a better challenger than Dylan Thomas. He would have been better served running in one of the allowance or claiming races earlier in the day.

Lava Man- If he is fed his Wheaties and gets a moderate pace and he breaks on top or sits right behind a possible rabbbit.

Sun King- If Bernardini moves too early into a wicked pace and Sun King is trained properly from now until Nov 4th, which we have every reason to believe he will be.

Beware of David Junior :cool:
Invasor would be my other pick.

If Bernardini doesn't win, it will be the biggest upset in BC history. If Lava Man isn't the one that beats him, there should be a police investigation. Nobody else has a prayer.

perfect drift, yes im a huge fan but his form hasnt tailed off and of course hes got homecourt advantage

lava man? hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

I agree completely!

hmmmmm love the horse but how quickly have you forgotten that when he moved east last fall away from cali he got spanked

Everybody ran bad that day except for Borrego. Flower Alley was up the track and came back to run a respectable 2nd to Saint Liam in the Classic.
Lava Man is a completely different horse a year later, much better than he was at this time last year and he ships 1 month before the race instead of 3 days. I like his chances better than Perfect Drifts, but call me crazy I guess.

lava man and david junior. but david junior's chances are very slim due to not having a prep.

PD hasn't tailed off???? He's slower this year than he was last year, I don't know about you but being beat by Seek Gold would tell me, he's tailed off...

well tim hell get another chance to prove it! last year at the time everyone was saying lava man was the next superhorse before the race and look what happened! the one thing you can say in lava's defense last year was the pace was totally against him and totally set it up for borrego, lava man was a solid bet against in the race and borrego was a "gift" 5-1. LOL please dont mention the overrated flower alley into the equation tim

I think it's Lava Man. If speed holds at CD, he will be extremely tough to get by. A sneaky pace scenario would really help his chances as well.

As for how he ran in the east last year. It was miserable, but LM had clearly started to regress when he left the west last year. This year he has been more consistent and is capable of running his best.

LOL gimme a break freefourinternet beat him how many years ago, did he tail off after that? was he right there in the foster this year, was he right there in his last race?

Only bad luck can beat Bernardini. I still remember Slew being nosed out by Exceller in the JCGC 1978(after Afffirmed's saddle slipped). I do not expect history to repeat itself. Bernardini will be tested, but he will win once again.

1 thing that will work against PD is the track coming up sloppy. he can handle the off going but will not run his best race over it. if it comes up that way then id discount him at the windows, lol even tho i wont hes getting my usual 50 and 50 on him no matter what

I'd take LM, David Junior, Sun King and Giacomo over Perfect Drift. *and INvasor if he runs

LOL sun king

If we're talking the Classic, I'd guess that it would take a multi-horse tag team effort to beat Bernardini... (ala the stunt pulled by Bailey and Solis on Eddington and Rock Hard Ten in the Belmont versus Smarty Jones)...

Early and constant harrassment and urging by Lava Man, Premium Tap, Lawyer Ron, etc.. followed by stalking attacks from Invasor, Brother Derek, Flower Alley, etc.. and late stretch runs from Sun King, Giacomo and Perfect Drift would be the scenario that could beat him.

Don't discount him playa. He and Drifty will be the ones catching LM & Bern at the end. With Drifty on top of course. :)

well you cant totally ever discount any horse is a race of this magnitutde but to say sun king is more likely is a joke, thats what i was laughing at

I think Brother Derek is the most likely to knock him off. I thought he ran very big his last race. He was coming agian after a wide crappy trip.

I am including him in my tris. I think he will be in the top three. He will be battling for 2nd with Bern.

I'm more than a little worried that there won't be a chance to beat him after the BC Classic after reading this from the Times Union:

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...ate=10/10/2006

What's Bernardini's future?

No decision has been made on whether Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bernardini will race next year at the age of 4. If he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, Bernardini will end the year with seven wins in eight starts this year and certainly will be Horse of the Year.

Trainer Tom Albertrani said there has been no decision on whether Bernardini will race next year or go straight to the breeding shed. Bernardini is owned by Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai.

"It's always good when you have a horse like this; more people focus on racing when they might normally not," Albertrani said. "I would love to have him next year, but no one has mentioned anything to me at all."

There will be an announcement after the Breeders' Cup.

maybe ill supplement this horse buffy LOL....he looks like hes ready to go to the track;)

http://pets.webshots.com/photo/13628...68366524HDXoIA

He's gorgeous... how tall is he? Looks big!

thanks of course hes gorgeous.........thats my horse=)!!!!!! hes about 16 hands. his nickname fits him well....big DD. might be on his way back to training soon

Hes just not good enough. He will be LUCKY to run 6th. No shot for Perfect Drift

Good luck with him! He sure looks ready. :D

its been a pleasure watching him run alot more than a couple of years, im still waiting to hear why sun king is more likely

I respect your opinion. I also THANK YOU for it... more $$ in my pocket. :D

thanks! lol i wish he was ready for a race, that pic was from summer of 05@arlington. hes been on the farm for almost 4 months now. if i bring him back to training soon which i probaly will ill either shoot for a race@thistle that has a couple conditions that i like or 1 on the poly at turfway in the winter

Ive offered anyone on the board 10-1 on Perfect Drift Showing.

I believe the original wager was actually him finishing in the top 6...

Wasn't it?