Offshore Belmont Odds and props
 

5Dimes has:
(California Chrome must run in Belmont for action)

California Chrome wins Belmont -120
Field wins Belmont -120

Bookmaker has it

2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (CHROME MUST START)
CALIFORNIA CHROME +104
ANY OTHER RUNNER -132

Bookmaker also has a line on whether Chrome will start:
2014 BELMONT STAKES - WILL CALIFORNIA CHROME RUN ?
YES -830
NO +536

And here's Bookmaker's Belmont line. (bets are "live" even if horse doesn't start, which is why Chrome is +145 in this line.)

CALIFORNIA CHROME +145
WICKED STRONG +525
DANZA +625
RIDE ON CURLIN +1215
SAMRAAT +1415
TONALIST +1215
SOCIAL INCLUSION +1815
INTENSE HOLIDAY +1615
COMMANDING CURVE +1415
KID CRUZ +2050
CANDY BOY +3550
COMMISSIONER +3050


--Dunbar

If you like CC, this prop is great value:

2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (CHROME MUST START)
CALIFORNIA CHROME +104
ANY OTHER RUNNER -132

regardless of who is facing him, he will be 1:2 or less - probably 1:5

I would have 'guessed' even money or better

I think the odds will most likely be somewhere in between those two predictions. Here's a list of the last 11 "tries", and their closing odds in the Belmont:

1979 Spectacular Bid .30 3rd
1981 Pleasant Colony .80 3rd
1987 Alysheba .80 4th
1989 Sunday Silence .90 2nd
1997 Silver Charm 1.05 2nd
1998 Real Quiet .80 2nd
1999 Charismatic 1.60 3rd
2002 War Emblem 1.25 8th
2003 Funny Cide 1.00 3rd
2004 Smarty Jones .35 2nd
2008 Big Brown .30 DNF

Only Funny Cide, War Emblem and Charismatic closed at of 1:1 or greater.

Funny Cide had Empire Maker to deal with, and Empire Maker took a lot of the betting money. As a need-the-lead front runner, War Emblem was particularly suspect at a mile-and-a-half, and Charismatic always had his doubters.

Only Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown closed at 1:2 or less.

California Chrome has not dominated like the Bid, Smarty Jones and Big Brown did.

--Dunbar

He's 3-2 right now at Bookmaker so taking +104 on Cal Chrome is not a good bet. The 12 furlongs just adds a lot of randomness. There's been some forgettable horses who scored at big odds in the Belmont. Could easily happen this year. He will be nowhere near 1-5 or even 3-5.

I may be missing something, but I would have anticipated that Tonalist is no worse than third choice in this race and that his odds would be no more than 6-1.

Despite the hype I was thinking he'd be behind Chrome, Wicked Strong, Danza and Commanding Curve - Potentially ROC if Rosario stays with him.

I would think there is little chance that Rosario rides Ride on Curlin in Belmont. They have already been discussing possible replacements.

I could see where it is possible that Danza might be a shorter price (given Derby odds and finish, and Pletcher being the trainer); I cannot see Commanding Curve going from being 37-1 in Derby to single digit odds in this race.

By way of comparison, in last year's Belmont, Freedom Child (last year's blowout Peter Pan winner) was the 8-1 third choice, and Golden Soul was 11-1. IMO, there is no question that Tonalist brings far more to this year's Belmont than Freedom Child did last year.

I agree on Freedom Child vs Tonalist but disagree with comparing Golden Soul and Commanding Curve. The latter has a ton of potential. And people love closers. I don't see anyway Wicked Strong goes off at a bigger number.

I would expect that Wicked Strong and Tonalist, especially given common running line in Florida, to be close to co-second choices.

Continuing the comparisons...Wicked Strong is a lot like Revolutionary...Similar style and nicely bred...He went off as 2nd choice last year.

I also think the Derby form held up well in the Preakness so people are likely to project that to the Belmont Stakes.

I happen to like Tonalist but I suppose if he were second choice I'd take a long look at wagering on Wicked Strong.

Based on his win in the Peter Pan, Tonalist would be the clear-cut 2nd choice in wagering if there's an off track, no?

At Bookmaker, you lose your bet if CC gets hurt between now and the race and doesn't run. At the other place, if the horse doesn't start the bet is cancelled. So I don't know if I would say that Bookmaker is a better bet. Last year you would've gotten burned at Bookmaker if you bet I'll Have Another.

As of this afternoon (5/27):

5Dimes:

California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
Sat 6/7 California Chrome wins Belmont +105
5:00PM Field wins Belmont -135

"+105" means odds of 1.05 to 1.
"-135" means you bet 135 to win 100 (payoff is 235)


Bookmaker:

2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (CHROME MUST START)
92001 CALIFORNIA CHROME EV
92002 ANY OTHER RUNNER -125


2014 BELMONT STAKES - WINNER (ALL IN BETTING) -- you lose if your horse doesn't start
92063 CALIFORNIA CHROME +105
92064 WICKED STRONG +725
92065 TONALIST +725
92066 COMMANDING CURVE +805
92067 RIDE ON CURLIN +805
92068 SAMRAAT +2050
92071 KID CRUZ +3050
92072 SOCIAL INCLUSION +4050
92073 COMMISSIONER +4050
92074 MATUSZAK +4050

--Dunbar

As mentioned earlier, I am kind of surprised of the odds where "he must start". I still think the race day odds will be much lower. 3/5 or less.

Oh he'll be 1/5. Problem is, there's 3-4 horses in there that would be life and death in a 90 BSF maiden race. By the time the race starts, he'll be tough to bet against in the top spot. It will probably be cold exacta time.

He won't be anything close to 1-5 unless we get a lot more defections. Tonalist, Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve, and Right on Curlin will all get play. Those odds that Dunbar posted from Bookmaker should be in the ballpark if those horses run. CC will be around 4-5, Wicked Strong 6-1 or so, Tonalist 7-1 or so, Commanding Curve 8-1 or so, and Ride on Curlin 8-1 or so.

If CC was 1-5, that would mean all those other horses would be around 20-1 apiece. That's not going to happen.

The big offshore books are always in the right ballpark on the odds. If they weren't they would go out of business. They're not going to give you even money on a 1-5 shot.

Chrome was only 5-2 in the derby, and 1-2 in the preakness. I haven't looked, but I would have to think it would be highly unusual (if not unprecedented) for a preakness winner to go off at a higher price in the belmont than he did in Baltimore, especially a horse looking for the triple crown. And while I certainly understand that sports books are not in business to lose money, even money seems like excellent value relative to what his off odds will be on the tote.

I saw the Bookmaker Yes/No prop several hours after the Preakness. The "Yes" was -135. They've taken a lot more "No" money than yes on him winning.

As of 6/2, the "No" money keeps nudging the win odds higher:

California Chrome must run in Belmont for action
Sat 6/7 101 California Chrome wins Belmont +110
5:00PM 102 Field wins Belmont -140

--Dunbar

Here are the best odds I found just now among 5Dimes, Bookmaker, and TheGreek:

1 MedalCount 16.95 Bookmaker
2 Calif Chrome 1.1 FiveD
3 Matterhorn 40.5 Bookmaker
4 CommandingCurve 10.15 Bookmaker
5 Ride On Curlin 7.45 Bookmaker
6 Matuszak 65.5 Bookmaker
7 Samraat 20 FiveD
8 Commissioner 40.5 Bookmaker
9 Wicked Strong 8.05 Greek
10 General A Rod 32.5 Bookmaker
11 Tonalist 10.15 Bookmaker

That's equivalent to a 7.5% takeout. At FiveD, the bet is refunded if either your horse or CC doesn't start. At Bookmaker, the bet is refunded if CC doesn't start, but it doesn't say what happens if your horse doesn't start. TheGreek doesn't specify that CC has to start.



If betting the Belmont isn't complicated enough, Bookmaker will let you make a bet on both the Belmont and the Epsom Derby:

WHO WILL HAVE THE BETTER RESULT ?
17727 CALIFORNIA CHROME -125
17728 AUSTRALIA EV


AUSTRALIA AND CALIFORNIA CHROMES RESULTS ?
17731 BOTH WIN +325
17732 NEITHER WIN +225
17733 ONLY CALIFORNIA CHROME WINS +225
17734 ONLY AUSTRALIA WINS +325


WHO WILL WIN BY MORE LENGTHS ?
17735 CALIFORNIA CHROME -110
17736 AUSTRALIA -110
(if both horses lose, bet is refunded)

--Dunbar

Considering that CC is 3-5 on the morning line, you would think that the offshore books would be lowering their odds on him, but they're not. He's actually going up in odds at some of the places. He is 6-5 at 5Dimes right now and that is a legitimate 6-5. There is no action if he doesn't run. There are two possibilities of why they have him at 6-5. The first possibility is that they are very confident that he's not going to win. The second possibility is that they're simply not getting much action on him. In addition, I would expect him to be slightly higher odds at a good offshore book because the good books don't mind giving out a line that only gives them a 5-10% edge. They don't need a 16% edge to make a good profit. In most cases they will make plenty of money with a 5-10% take.

I don't think CC will go off at 3-5. I think that morning-line is a little low. I think he will be either 4-5 or even money.

Right. The difference in vig only accounts for part of the difference. If you take the figs from "best odds" I posted yesterday, and turn it into a 15% takeout line, it only changes Chrome from 1.1-1 to 1.0-1.

Chrome is currently 1-1 at Bookmaker and TheGreek, and 1.15-1 at 5Dimes. One thing that may inflate 5Dimes' valuation is that they know they will be paying 110% of the win payoff if someone plays Chrome in the site's racebook (as opposed to taking Chrome at a fixed price "future". (they offer the extra 10% as an ongoing promotion.) So if Chrome goes off at 1-1, 5Dimes will be paying those bettors more than 1.1-1 anyway.

I think your "4-5 or even money" is right on target.

--Dunbar

Current odds 2:5

I wouldn't make too much of that. It's way too early. There is only $64,000 in the win pool right now. By post time there will probably be around $10 million in there.

Here are the double will pays. Charming Kitten paid $13 to win.

$2 BELMONT GOLD CUP-BELMONT STAKES WILL-PAYS
Charming Kitten (#3) with:
1. Medal Count, $258.50
2. California Chrome, $38
3. Matterhorn, $936
4. Commanding Curve, $150
5. Ride On Curlin, $144.50
6. Matuszak, $697
7. Samraat, $272
8. Commissioner, $368
9. Wicked Strong, $85.50
10. General a Rod, $472
11. Tonalist, $127

Take a look at those Double will-pays with Charming Kitten, and tell me Chrome's payoff looks like a horse that will be bet down to 3-5!

--Dunbar

They must be taking huge action against CC. Right now if you want to bet the field you have to lay -160 and they will give +135 on CC. That is very surprising that they are offering practically 7-5 on CC when the horse is 4-5 at the track.

Score one for Rupert.

The win pool was $22,491,474
$9,943,684 was bet on Chrome

Win odds = 0.89994 to 1, but breakage makes it 0.8 to 1, or 4-5.

(if $153 less had been bet on Chrome, it would have been 0.9-1).

--Dunbar