Shared Belief
 

I was a little surprised he didn't have his own thread, yet.

I did a blog post on him today, covering him, his brilliant Hollywood Futurity win, and the speed figure questions surrounding the race.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...red_Belief_123

Considering the realities of modern two-year-old racing (very lightly raced, prone to setbacks, etc) I think this years crop has an unexpectedly high number of top quality prospects going into the New Year.

He is a synthetic specialist, get that through your head.

I am not sure on what makes you an expert on what 2yr old is a synthetic specialist....but that 2 yr old ran his lights out....until proven otherwise, I will be rooting for him to be the next great one.....

I think people are mostly speaking as bettors, not fans. He'll be 2 to 5 or so next time.

Perfect horse to try to beat next time out. If he romps, just sit back and enjoy the show.

Afternoon Deelites is a poor comparison.

i'll withold judgement til he runs on a track other than synthetic. some horses aren't limited to one surface. we'll see.

personally, i'm hoping his form translates to dirt and/or turf.

I suppose most did not see my comments in the Cashcall thread, my response in this one was completely tongue and cheek.

i know i don't read every thread in every room, so i certainly missed it.

Someone there said this horse should not even be considered a Derby contender at this point since he has not run on dirt, I thought that to be a bit ridiculous.

i agree.
it's the best part of the derby, the months leading up and watching the youngsters shake things out.

Yeah early on that would've discounted Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom. (I went to double check the surfaces of Barbaro's earliest races and couldn't help but see the DNF first thing on Equibase. Ugh, always a punch to the gut.) I'm almost glad that some of them start out winning on things like turf because you know they can run on it and if they take off on dirt the option of going back to their other surface is there. They might not take the risk sometimes of trying turf later if they don't have to.

since when ?

ah, now that's better. should have done that sooner.

Certainly does not have the running style of a synthetic specialist. In fact, usually horses that have his running style on synthetics move up on dirt.

Gypsy Robin is a speed demon, and she fares much better on synthetic.

So your point is that in general the statement was wrong?

Mr. Speaker fits this mold and it will be interesting to see where Shug will decide to go with him next (Holy Bull or Fountain of Youth). His barn is loaded with potential Derby types, so he has the option of keeping him on the grass and point to the G3 Palm Beach on March 1st. Shug is in pretty good position.

As for Shared Belief, he deserves his own blog according to the criteria the last few years. I love his action and feel it will translate well to dirt.

true.

what i don't like about their plans with shared belief is only two starts before the derby. it's too bad that this has become the rule, not the exception.

Here is the champ last week at GGF.

He's not the one in blue.

Thanks to Janet Hollendorfer for the gracious access.

Attachment 2370

any word on his next appearance?

Yeah. Jerry said he's looking at the Los Alamitos Derby formally known as the Swaps Stakes.

sounds weird, "Swaps Stakes " at Los Al.......Cant Believe H.P. Is Gone.

Seems like they are babying him.... Why not run him in a real race?

First route race in 7 months. Smart move i think. Hollendorfer is not Rontos Stable. Like you said, baby steps.

It's a grade II with a $500,000 purse. That's not good enough? This will be his first race on real dirt. And as Outofthebox said, he just had the one 6 furlong sprint and now he's stretching all the way out to 1 1/8 miles. That's not easy to do. By the way, he's never run this far before.

His first race back was at Golden Gate vs no one. His only competition in that race was a stablemate who was ridden, well watch the race....
He is the 2yr old champ. Is he coming east next for the big summer 3yr old races? If so Ill back off my comments.

He will be running in the biggest races soon enough. Hollendorfer has never been afraid to ship back east. I don't know if the horse will make the Haskell. It is 22 days after the Los Al race. That is borderline. There aren't any big races at Del Mar for 3 year olds on the main track. The big races are on the grass. I would assume the Travers is a possibility. If the horse has no problem handling the 1 1/8 miles at Los Al, they may feel he's ready to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles in the Travers.

I guess my point is how many champions run at Golden Gate and Los Al??? It feels to me like the perfect spot for him surface, timing and distance wise was last Saturday.

Are you serious. I hope your not referring to the Belmont Stakes Saturday? A 1 1/2 mile off a six furlong race..nice...Im sure if he was stabled on the east coast there was a good chance he would have made his 3yo debut in the Woody Stephens. But the Dorf was lucky enough to get a race put up for him and now he is on his way. I hope like all of us that he can dirt and compete in the Travers this summer...

Wouldn't be surprised to see California Chrome in the Los AL derby.

He might lead the post parade just for kicks..That would bring out a big crowd...

He's off to the farm for a break.. Not expected to return until the fall.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...easy-at-los-al

Woody Stephens.....

Gotcha...Well good thing he didn't show up there against Bayerns blow out..

Seriously?

As good as Shared Belief has been on the synthetics, they may decide to go in the Pacific Classic instead of shipping back east. There have been a few 3 year olds that have won that race. Dullahan won it in 2012. Aside from Game on Dude, the handicap division on the west coast is not that strong right now. And Game on Dude is not as consistent as he used to be. He ran that one huge race this year but his other couple of races were just mediocre.

Meh.

So one prep for the bc.


That's garbage. Bet that changes.

Yes, The last thing you want for a horse coming off a long layoff is a demanding race..Which is why Hollendorfer picked out a condition race for him.

Now they're saying they might go in the San Diego Handicap instead of the Los Alamitos Derby. They'd have to go against older horses in there but the advantages are that it is on synthetic and it is only 1 1/16 miles. I guess they are having second thoughts about running 1 1/8 miles on the dirt coming off just a 6 furlong race on the synthetic. I can't blame them.

The big negative (aside from running against older horses) if they go in the San Diego Handicap is that this would put them in a position where they have to go from running 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles if his subsequent start was going to be either the Travers or the Pacific Classic. It is very rare to see a horse that has never run further than 1 1/16 miles win a Grade 1 going 1 1/4 miles. It practically never happens. I've seen it a few times but it is very rare. Maybe they will pass on both the Pacific Classic and the Travers and try him on the grass in the Del Mar Derby (1 1/8 miles). That would be a little more conservative.