Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland
 

...especially opening weekend before you can get a feel for how the new configuration and Polytrack will play and what horses have the advantages:

DO NOT TAKE LESS THAN 5-1 ON ANY HORSE ALL WEEKEND, AND MAKE MOST OF YOUR PLAYS OVER 10-1...

I would bet that this betting pattern proves to be successful if you can find attributes in middle-priced horses or longshots...

EVERY horse is vulnerable on Polytrack....Circular Quay, Happy Ticket, you name the horse....its not worth the short price on these horses just because they may be better on DIRT...

Good luck to everyone this weekend and I hope this theory makes you a lot of money - or at least saves you some from betting too many short-priced favorites :)

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well said...I agree deeply...this is EXACTLY why I am NOT a proponent of Polytrack....many top dirt horses won't act on it...

I still can't see how With a City won the Lane's End earlier this year....he couldn't have won on the dirt if they'd have let him cut through the infield....

This surface WILL change racing and in more negative ways than positive IMO....start taking notes

Great advice, Joel. Where do I sign up for your handicapping newsletter?

Well Premium Tap would have won had he not gone up Ball Four's butt on the turn. I played Ball Four though in that race only because he was the only one with Poly form.

My rule of thumb for Kee; avoid any race not run on (real) grass.

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

Are the obvious favorites going into this meet.

But watch for Amoss, Reinstadler, and Wismer to sneak a few prices in. Especially if the east coast big dogs have a few contenders in the races with them.

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

The surface will be a little different but if it's even close to TP's then it's going to be advantage Team France.

I'm actually hoping the public overbets them and have a good feeling that will be the case. Then comes the fun part of finding who'll beat them with very limited data.

Dartboard

or

Ask the girl that looks like she's had the most to drink...

Either way will be fine, but don't put any effort into it...

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

Depends on your definition of Class. It takes a combination of speed and stamina to win on the Poly.

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

100 % correct I love this new twist especially if I like a Couple of big priced horses. you would be crazy not to bet $.50 tickets And just hit the repeat button as many times as you like.

Cream Rises To The Top
 

I don't buy that! If a horse can run he can run no matter what. Its like tiger woods and michael jordan, any course any court they have an advantage when your better than the rest the cream rises to the top.

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

I don't want to make anyone mad here but some of you guys are absolutely making to much of this Polytrack and Handicapping. I consider myself a very astute handicapper and I use just about every resource available when I can.
Don't get me wrong I do not win all of the time but I have made some very good scores so far at Turfway.

Handicapping you get out of it what you put into it and it does take a little effort form time to time Especially on the Poly.

Can't wait for Keeneland this weekend I have already been looking at the pp's for Fri and Sat and there looks like a couple very good betting opportunities just off my initial look at the pp's.

You better not go to the bathroom again, that stuff smells too. You might as well just break down and die from constipation rather than suffer through a bad smell. Just like horses should run on dirt where they are more likely to break down rather than run on polytrack because it smells. There are plenty of good arguments against polytrack. The fact that it smells a little isn't one of them.

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

No I don't think so I think I have been around long enough and know enough of these guys to know who is good and who isn't.

Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland :D

Arabian Light, Unshaded, Clockstopper, it happens...

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.

YOu are a liar, and you have a vested interest in the stuff.
Care to tell us all about the Turfway numbers for the past meet?
Oh, and nice try saying that 5 horses 15-1 or longer could win stakes like that in one day. Where have you ever seen that? Go ahead and try and pull one card from anywhere at any track where they ran 5 stakes races in one day and ALL were bombs. Get real will you? WHo do you think you are talking to here, idiots?
Its like the first time in history that a track runs 5 stakes on one card and every horse is an unfathomable bomb. YOu wanna explain to us, that just happens, yeah ok sure.
No please get those Turfway figures for us if you will.
Bet you any amount you wanna bet!!! Keeneland's handle goes down.

I was reading the article in the DRF about KEE and they were interviewing Larry Jones, it didn't take a real brain surgeon to figure out that he doesn't mind training on it, but he's not real crazy about racing on it...

Second race on the opening day of Keenland is a 7500 claimer. Opening day!

Being run on the "all weather surface" as well, lol.
The folks who try to compare Keeneland with Saratoga, well, they need help.

What will these trainers excuse be when they fail on the new surface too, or they contunue to break down horses? People are acting like Polytrack is the holy grail. I do think Polytrack is good for certain tracks in certain areas but its not the universal answer for all tracks

I have to disagree with you guys when it comes to handicapping on it. I will not be playing Keeneland until I understand where I will get my edge. There should be ways to getting an advantage on this surface just like any other.

Hey,

Don't forget its ok still to play the turf at Keenland. A good turf course to bet on. Always liked it.

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!