Ride on Normandy Invasion
 

dunno what to think of it, I think he hit the front way too early but I think it would not have mattered. Reminds me of what Javy did on Bernardini in the BC Classic, in any case I have been hearing and reading that the connections are not too thrilled with the ride he gave. If he were a bit more patient could Normandy have won?

I needed Normandy Invasion for the double and an exacta. I do think Javy moved a little early, but I don't think anyone was going to beat Orb on this day. The race kind of broke down and maybe that hurt Normandy Invasion from making a launch from the middle one run, but I don't think he wins regardless. That being said, I do think he could have gotten 2nd

The second quarter did him in. He simply had horses backing into him when he hit the front. Oxbow is another one whose backers could second guess.
If Golden Soul had won the connections of Orb could claim Rosario made a premature 4th quarter move, but Golden Soul didn't win.
Normandy Invasion wasn't good enough. Three races in a row now he has excuses. Horrible trip, pace dynamics against him and now premature move. If the jockeys could operate the horses like tyco cars they could run THE perfect race. So if indeed NI lost the race to the 3 horses in front of him because of a premature 2nd quarter move no one will ever know who else in the field could have factored if their rides were perfect.

I tweeted earlier that the ride was almost identical to the Bernardini ride.

All of the early speed other than Oxbow was totally fried.

Oxbow finished a heroic 6th beaten 10 lengths, but it gets ugly after that.

Palace Malice stopped cold in the stretch even though he was free running on a loose lead. Goldencents was beaten 50 lengths. Vyjack was beaten more than 50 lengths. Verrezano was beaten 16 lengths with no trip excuse. It'smyluckyday was beaten 22 lengths.


After the fact, it's clear that Castallano basically misjudged the pace on Normandy Invasion.

Pace meltdowns happen.

The Giacomo year the half mile fraction was 45.38 and the final time was 2.02.75

This year, the half mile fraction was 45.33 and the final time was 2:02.89

The pace was 0.05 seconds faster this year than the Giacomo year, and the final time was 0.14 seconds slower this year than the Giacomo year.

Good horses like Flower Alley and Bellamy Road both got fried chasing that pace. Afleet Alex made a premature inside move that I'm sure Rose regrets. He was flat in the stretch.

Giacomo was 18th beaten 16 lengths and Don't Get Mad was 19th beaten 19 lengths and they surged wide to finish 1st and 4th at odds of 50/1 and 30/1.

This year it was five deep closers making up the top five spots. All of them raced 18+ lengths off of the early pace other than Normandy Invasion...who was surprisingly close and made the eye-catching early move.

I used Oxbow and Revolutionary on top and thought Oxbow ran his tits off.
Wonder how things turn out for him if Palace Malice doesn't run off and drag them thru those splits.
He never actually hit the lead though (if so it was for about a second or two) but turning for home i thought he was a top 3 finisher or even a winner.

Got in good but nothing to show for it - Golden Soul knocked me out of saver tris with the winner over my top two picks.
Would like to see Oxbow in Baltimore.

If he still has a pulse, he will be there.

I agree. I thought he moved too soon and would have been a clear 2nd with a more patient ride.

Hard to justify that ride. Especially from a supposed top jock. Wins with a more patient ride

I don't think it was a bad ride. He just wasn't good enough

I probably missed it somewhere, but was Johnny V's decision on who to ride made because of his relationship with Pletcher or did they think Verrazano had a better chance to win?

i think it was more due to him riding for pletcher so much-but it's not like verrazano wasn't a good horse.
sometimes you pick right, sometimes not....

I agree with Cannon...he wasn't winning today. I bet him to win...he simply didn't have enough in the tank & wouldn't have even with a more patient ride.

He moved WAY too soon and cost his mount at least a 2nd place finish in my opinion.

I think it had everything to do with his relationship with Pletcher. The Derby may be the biggest race of the year, but it's still just one race. He's smart (and classy) to stay loyal.

I bet Normandy Invasion to win, too, but now that it's all about hoping for a TC for me, I would like to think that right now Orb is just maybe better than everyone else.

(But I'm not saying that very loud, Racing Gods, okay?)

Typical Javier premature move. I too was reminded of his ride on Bernardini.

Orb......................... :24.29 :24.22 :23.74 :24.68 :25.97 Rosario J 5.40
Golden Soul .............:24.12 :24.31 :23.72 :25.03 :26.13 Albarado R J 34.50
Revolutionary ...........:24.54 :24.15 :23.72 :25.05 :26.02 Borel C H 6.40
Normandy Invasion... :23.68 :23.12 :23.89 :25.48 :27.34 Castellano J J 9.30
Mylute .....................:24.63 :24.05 :23.48 :25.12 :26.24 Napravnik R 15.30
Oxbow .....................:22.88 :23.41 :24.11 :25.85 :28.29 Stevens G L 24.90
Lines of Battle ..........:23.93 :24.32 :23.87 :25.32 :27.43 Moore R L 31.90
Will Take Charge .......:23.64 :24.00 :24.06 :25.31 :27.95 Court J K 36.40
Charming Kitten ........:23.66 :24.17 :23.45 :26.09 :27.77 Prado E S 33.20
Giant Finish ..............:23.47 :23.58 :24.32 :26.19 :27.60 Espinoza J L 38.60
Overanalyze .............:23.95 :24.22 :23.87 :26.04 :27.09 Bejarano R 16.20
Palace Malice ............:22.57 :22.76 :24.47 :26.53 :28.86 Smith M E 23.70
Java's War ...............:25.31 :23.73 :23.55 :25.22 :27.72 Leparoux J R 21.50
Verrazano ................:22.77 :23.15 :24.56 :26.11 :28.98 Velazquez J R 8.70
Itsmyluckyday ..........:22.96 :23.58 :24.57 :26.09 :29.48 Trujillo E 9.50
Frac Daddy ...............:23.39 :24.27 :24.30 :26.29 :28.76 Lebron V 25.00
Goldencents .............:22.59 :23.53 :24.56 :27.16 :33.48 Krigger K 7.90
Vyjack .....................:22.86 :23.08 :24.71 :27.69 :33.52 Gomez G K 18.80
Falling Sky ...............:22.76 :24.21 :24.66 :26.80 :33.48 Saez L 39.70


Visually it appears as though Normandy Invasion moved too fast when overtaking the four runners in front of him around the far turn. The incremental splits tell a different story. The horses in front of him were backing into the field. It was his 2nd quarter mile where he accelerated too quickly and passed 5 horses to get into 7th place. Only the pacesetter and Vyjack ran faster during that time frame.

It's unreasonable to think he could have slowed his horse down any more than he did in that 4th quarter. The damage had already been done.

The move might have been a little early but I also think Tapits don't want to go 10F. His AWD is high but he's also only had 1 winner going 10F and Tapit also stopped at about the same time in the Derby.

Want a really bad trouble line? Watch the overhead and take a look at Will Take Charge. Moves in concert with Orb, actually appears to be moving a little better than him for a bit around the turn, then Verrazano backs up into him and Orb takes the outside line, Court tries to dive inside but it's too late and has to pull up and just flat out stops COLD. Would have been in the super for sure and might have even challenged for 1st/2nd. Hats off to Lukas for having both horses run really well when there was a lot of buzz that both were doing poorly.

Chuck

The game has all these tech advances, albeit for the fans, over the last few years with innovations like Trakus to make a race easier to follow. Is there nothing on these massive scoreboards for these jocks to see or in some way hear the splits for the big races on a day like yesterday.

Is a glance at 22.1, 45.1 or 109.4 on these huge tote boards completely out of the question given the chaos of a 19 horse field. I realize the jocks are supposed to have a decent clock in their heads or does it not matter once a suicide pace is set you can't slow'em down and expect to kick it in gear at the top of the stretch. The horse doesn't exactly come with a gear shift.....

He clearly moved too early, not sure how that is even a debate. I'm sure judging whether a pace is fast is suicidal is not an easy thing to do, but he judged wrong. At worst, he was the second best horse in the race.

:tro:

--Dunbar

Exactly,Castellano saw Oxbow go and went with him. He waits another second or 2 and he is 2nd easy.

Golden Soul I think killed everyone's ticket. I had him 3/4 on all of mine

These are his updated PPs after yesterday. If you're arguing that he didn't move too early, you're wrong.

You know I agree, but PPs at 10f look a little different and can be deceiving. You are shown the 4f/1m instead of 4f/6f calls.

My handicapping and betting approach is focused on watching all races with +20 or faster and -12 or slower paces.

I'd have zero bet backs and four bet againsts coming out of this race.

None of the speed horses ran well enough to merit automatic bet back status.

Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and Mylute would all go into stable mail as bet againsts next time.

Mylute followed Orb the whole way around and finished 3.75 lengths back. Both had clear wide trips.

Revolutionary followed Golden Soul until the top of the stretch. Both had clear inside trips, though Revo was bottled up with a lot of run going into the turn.

All of them raced more than 18 lengths back and benefited from the meltdown scenario.

Java's War was the only horse positioned 15th or worse, who failed to have a top 5 finish, but I don't put a horse like him on the list because he can show up in a Turf or Synthetic race next time.

The way I judge a +20 or faster pace is no different if it's the 3rd race at Emerald Downs or the Kentucky Derby.

I don't agree that you can say without reservation that it cost him 2nd.

He is out of a Boston Harbor mare. IMO he can't get 1 1/4. He was almost 9 lengths behind a suicidal pace at the half and still 5 lengths back at the 3/4's. If the speed horses last a little longer than no one is saying anything about moving too early. Let's not forget that he was on the rail and would have been directly behind the horses who finished up the track if he hadn't moved outside. The rest of his trip outside of the supposed premature move was almost perfect.

You'll get a chance to watch him lose ground again in the stretch in the Belmont

I hear now that he won't be running again until Saratoga. Maybe ever.

that kind of news used to surprise.

Well he never actually did win a stakes race so I guess they will need that. Just a natural reaction nowdays.

Of course you can't say it without reservation. But using breeding as the reason is laughable.

With all due respect, this is nonsense.

Anytime a post time favorite wins the Kentucky Derby from off of the pace with an eye-catching move ...people will always give them the benefit of the doubt.

Fusaichi Pegasus was hailed as the second coming when he was taken back off of a 45.99 pace and won with a perfect trip. He reportedly sold for $60 million after the Derby ... and honestly, $60 million probably seemed a huge bargain for "Fu Peg" given all of the hysteria associated with a well bred post time favorite winning the Derby.

Street Sense got a dream run up the rail after a 46.26 half mile. Few people cared that Hard Spun set a legit pace and would have won had Street Sense not got the clean inside run. Few people cared that Curlin was buried behind a wall of tiring horses.

Street Sense won just two of his next five starts, both at odds of 1/5. In his three defeats, he was a good 2nd in the Preakness at 6/5 odds, 2nd in the Kentucky Cup to Hard Spun at 4/5 odds, and 4th in the Breeders Cup Classic as the 5/2 post time favorite. Curlin paid $10.80 in the BC Classic and Hard Spun was 2nd at 8/1 odds. The exacta of "Derby excuse horses" paid $70.80

Fusaichi Pegasus was a soundly beaten 2nd in the Preakness at odds 1/5. He won the Jerome. And then finished 6th in Breeders Cup Classic as the 6/5 favorite. Captain Steve was the big excuse horse in the Derby the Fu Peg year. He made that stupid pre-mature move into a hot pace and took the lead on the far turn. He was beaten just a neck to Fu Peg in the Preakness, and finished 3rd in the BC Classic at 13/1 odds.

True.

I think his obsession with running horses in the triple crown series is a good thing this year because (unlike some other years) both of his colts' performances yesterday actually do justify entering them in the Preakness.

I don't see how this negates Port Conway Lane's argument; namely that Normandy Invasion's "early move" was more a case of other horses backing up than Normandy Invasion making a move.

Looking at the splits posted by Port Conway Lane, that argument makes sense to me. Is there an error in PCL's splits?

If the splits are correct, then NI's 3rd quarter mile, 23:89, was slower than 8 other horses's. NI's 4th quarter mile, 25:48, was slower than 7 other horses's.

Also, exactly which part of Cannon Shell's post was nonsense? If you are claiming that running a blistering 23:89 3rd quarter is what ruined Normandy Invasion's chances, when 8 other horses ran faster 3rd quarters including the first 3 finishers, then that makes no sense to me.

The fact that both you and cmorioles agree on this gives me pause. I just wish you'd make a clearer case for it.

--Dunbar

It is also deceiving looking at running position in a 19 horse field. Moving from 12th to 7th looks normal in a race with a 12 horse field, but he gained five positions into the teeth of a brutal pace between the 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile calls, with 3/4 mile still to run.

That move troubles me more than the one where the others collapsed and he inherited the lead. Nobody was "backing up" during that 1/4 mile. What was the hurry?

The running line overstates his move, as CJ pointed out. I posted it more for a reference point.

You have to put into context where horses are when comparing their individual 1/4 times in any race, especially a 10f race. Yes, there were horses who ran faster 3rd quarters than Normandy Invasion. However, they were behind him at that point. Most were well behind him.

Combine Normandy Invasion's 2nd two quarters and you'll see he went significantly faster than any other horse in the field.

This was not a situation like 2010 when the field came back to the pack rapidly. Castellano, who has been prone to wildly premature moves, pushed the button too soon, and negated his mount's best weapon, his ability to finish.

A more patient ride would have greatly helped his chances.

Really? So breeding doesn't play a role in horses ability to run a distance of ground? Really?

Of course because surely you and CJ have all the answers and no one elses opinion means anything. Of course it is easy to believe in absolutes when there is little chance to be proven wrong.

Normandy Invasion, who has been pegged as a late-running horse, has been sharper in his workouts and his regular training in part by design. Brown has said he would like Normandy Invasion to show enough quickness out of the gate to secure a good position under Javier Castellano.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...rsday-training

Im sure this had nothing to do with it.