| pmayjr |
05-07-2013 03:07 PM |
I'm actually eating my words a little bit. There are 2 message boards I post semi-regularly on- This one and the Coachella Music Festival message board (because Coachella is the best music fest ever).
So there's a half-assed Kentucky Derby thread in the misc section of the message board. I decided this year to give the people posting on there some education on the race, and tell them about the entrants. I did it as unbiased as possible. I wasn't posting my picks for the race, I was posting a little blurb on each horse with pros/cons. Because most of the people on that board don't play the horses and if they do just once a year on the Derby. So I was doing this to educate them.
I did it by major derby prep, and they actually ended up being long drawn-out blurbs. But I'm no professional writer. I just kind wrote what was on my mind. Added youtube clips of the major preps and the Derby entrants that ran in the Prep. Well, the interesting thing I wrote about Golden Soul, I maybe could have had him in my exotics lol- This was my blurb on the Louisiana Derby. You can actually see the links here if you got time. My Member name on that message board is fiopadp7791.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fiopadp7791
(Post 2737539)
Ok lovers and friends. This is what happens when I have waaaaaaaayyyyyy to much time on my hands. But as a horse-racing nut and also trying to be some half-ass'd ambassador for the sport of kings, I figured I educate y'all on the Derby this year. You can start viewing all the posts on page 6 of this thread, or they're all individually linked below so if you just wanna look at specific posts you can. I HAVE NOT POSTED MY PICKS YET. I tried giving you guys some good and bad things about each of these horses without showing too much bias. The Derby every year is full of unpredictability and longshots, so if these posts help you form your own opinion so be it. It's seriously every bit as good as mine, because even the most hardcore handicappers have trouble getting that race right from year to year. Otherwise, just listen to Playadelwes for picks, because he wins every year anyway ;p. Hope this helps you for Saturday. Have fun, have some Mint Juleps, and hopefully the rain stays away from Louisville on Saturday.
Intro Post and explanation/terminology-
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730585
Wood Memorial- Verrazano, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730597
Santa Anita Derby- Goldecents
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730617
Arkansas Derby- Oxbow, Overanalyze, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730636
Florida Derby- Orb, Itsmyluckday
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730668
Louisiana Derby Revolutionary, Mylute, Palice Malice, Golden Soul
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730817
UAE Derby (Dubai) Lines of Battle
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730850
Toyota Bluegrass Stakes Java's War, Palice Malice, Charming Kitten
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2730947
Rebel Stakes Will Take Charge, Oxbow
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2731692
Spiral Stakes Black Onyx, Giant Finish
http://www.coachella.com/forum/showt...=1#post2731705
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My blurb on the Louisiana Derby and Golden Soul (for some reason the youtube link doesn't show up in the quoted text when transferring it to this site, so I took that part out), but in the links about they're there). Golden Soul is at the bottom. If you look at the last 2 or 3 sentences at what I wrote on him, I could've listened to myself and had him. But as you can see the deep closer I was in love with was Java's War.-
Quote:
Originally Posted by fiopadp7791
(Post 2730817)
Louisiana Derby
Location- Fairgrounds (New Orleans)
Date 3/30/13
Surface- Dirt
Distance 1 1/8 Miles
Derby entrants in this clip (number listed next to them is their Kentucky Derby post position)-
#3 Revolutionary
#4 Golden Soul
#6 Mylute
#10 Palice Malice
#3 Revolutionary
Revolutionary is on a nice roll for once again, trainer Todd Pletcher. I should probably mention at this point that a lot of the best trainers go many years without having a horse in the derby. Some only get one in their lifetime. Pletcher is gonna have 4 or 5 in this year's race alone. So as I said in a previous post, it's absurd that amount of talented horses he gets in his stable each year. So... onto Revolutionary- The race before this, he won a minor stakes race at Aqueduct in New York, and the Pletcher decided to ship him to Fairgrounds to run in this Derby Prep. I'm not sure if Pletcher has babied this horse, or maybe not thought as highly of him as some of the others in his stable. Reason I say this, he's entered this horse against lesser competition in his past few races, and each time he's won. So the horse wins, and he gets a slightly tougher test, wins again, gets a slightly tougher test. Entering him in the Louisiana Derby meant not going up against the best competition. The race attracted a full field of 14 horses, because none of the entrants were all that scared of each other. They all thought they had a legit chance to win. I remember when handicapping the Louisiana Derby that I thought 9 or 10 out of the 14 had a decent chance of winning the race, so it truly was wide-open. But Revolutionary did what he had to do in this race. He raced extrememly wide for most of it (meaning he was way out from the rail, had no inside-track to shorten the race distance), and still won. So on Kentucky Derby day, he'll finally get his big test against the best 3-year olds. But he's as ready as he'll ever be. He won't be one of the favorites, but won't be much of a long-shot either. I can see him being anywhere from 7-1 to around 10-1 that day. I think the thing that impressed me the most about him in this race- When the 2nd place horse Mylute came up to challenge him, he looked like he'd get passed, but Revolutionary found another gear and grinded home a victory. But the question will remain, has he really faced tough competition to this point, and how will that translate on Derby day?
#6 Mylute
Mylute ran a very good race to finish 2nd. But! He should've won. He had every chance to pass Revolutionary, and didn't do it. Was it a lack of heart? Was it a lack of guts? Was Revolutionary just too good? Or maybe was Mylute just tired out? Mylute's daddy is the hottest young sire out there right now- Midnight Lute. Midnight Lute's progeny are winning a lot, on all distances and surfaces (Turf, Dirt, Synthetic). But! Midnight Lute was a sprinter. And I wonder if Mylute is taking on a distance that is too far for his breeding. A sprint is any race under a mile, and to ask him to go 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles might be asking him to run too far. He closed strong in the Louisiana Derby, but couldn't finish it out. So... mixed signals?
#10 Palice Malice
Another Todd Pletcher entrant in this race was Palace Malice. He was a non-threatening 7th in this race, but rebounded 2 weeks later in the Blue Grass Stakes to finish a close 2nd. That 2nd-place finish got him in the Derby. I'll go into more detail about him in the Blue Grass post below, but one thing to point out about his finish in this race- Throughout these posts you've seen me use the phrase "TRAFFIC TROUBLES" or "TRAFFIC PROBLEMS" or "TRAFFIC _____". Well Palace Malice had plenty of traffic trouble in this race. He was unable to get any kind of clear run down the stretch, because he was caught behind tiring horses that blocked his final stretch run. So how good could he have finished if he had a clear run in this race? I'll say more in the Blue Grass post, where he did get a clear run.
#4 Golden Soul
Golden Soul is a last-minute Derby entrant. He didn't have enough qualifying points to be in the top 20, but with a few dropping out, he's now in the field. But... you can maybe take a little positivity out of this race for a horse that might just be the longest shot on the board- He got 4th in the Louisiana Derby, but was so far back in this race, that he closed from miles away to get that 4th place finish. He had to run widest around the track to do it too. If you watch the clip of this race, watch the #4 horse (yes he's the #4 horse in the Derby, but he was the #4 in the Louisiana Derby too). He breaks clean, but just is really sluggish coming out. As the race unfolds, you can't even see him in the screen he's so far back. But you see him start to pick off horses in the stretch. He never threatened to win the race, but it doesn't look like an extra 1/8 of a mile will be any issue for him. He'll be a deep closing type like Java's War. But is he as good as Java's War? So if you're playing exactas and trifectas, if you're looking for a big longshot underneath, he's not the worst horse to include.
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