BC Mile - George Washington
 

Well it appears that the BC Mile is now over. I believe GW is going to go in the mile. He will destroy this field with great ease. What is great about this move is that it may set-up a showdown between Gorella and Ouija Board in the Filly and Mare Turf. Boy what a great race that is going to be. I would lean towards OB because of who she has been up against, but Gorella is where my heart is. But keep in mind that they both have to catch Wait A While--remember Intercontinental last year. Maybe we will see a repeat performace by Wait A While.

isn't george washington owned by the jacksons?

bred by, not owned by...

ah, i got ya..thanks

He's going, but so is Iffraaj.....

Can't wait. It's gonna be a great race.

I think GW is very beatable

I think if he's at his best, he'll be very tough to beat.. But the shipping, his shaky temperament, etc. makes him less than a lock.

Odd it may seem, Araafa might be a nice price for the mile if he goes. He is usually positioned well and can be in the perfect possy to kick coming round the turn. Soumillion on board would be a plus.. George Washington may have to do a Rock Of Gibraltar type move..

George Washington has produced the two best miling performances of the season, and we know on his day he is the best miler in the world.
That said, his temperament must remain a concern, especially with the flight, and difference in raceday atmosphere he is likely to face at CD.

He is as short as 5/4 for the BCM, with Coral being the most generous at 2/1. That makes no appeal whatsoever to me for all that I think he is an exceptional racehorse, especially given that more prominent tactics than are likely to be exercised have tended to win the day in past BCMs at Churchill.

That said I wouldn't touch 5/1 on Aragorn or 6/1 Araafa. But at 8/1 Iffraaj is of some interest. One can picture Frankie giving this a similar ride as on Barathea in '94, slowing things up from the front, and getting first run on the others. I have no doubt this horse will see out a mile given those tactics.

No doubt he's an excellent racehorse but what was so spectacular about his win this past weekend? I realize he apparantly beat the best Euro milers, but even the people who assign the Time Form numbers admitted to being suspect about the field, and left the numbers open to further review. But, more importantly to me, George Washington had an absolutely dream set up in this race. Probably won't happen so sweetly in the BC Mile.

I wouldn't argue he is probably the horse to beat, but I am confused by the comparisons to Rock of Gibralter that are coming out of England, and don't quite see why he is such a short price at this point.

harry will correct me if im wrong, but i believe that GW has put up better timeform figures than the rock.. The rock won loads of races over the year but his ratings were quite low...

Two words..
 

Miesque's Approval... heh, heh, heh...

This last win may have been slightly higher but as I pointed out there is still some debate about those designations even by those that assigned them.

I won't pretend to know anything about how Time Form figures are created but I do know that Rock of Gibralter came to the BC with a far more impressive resume than George Washington. I realize GW was held up by an injury this summer but I am not willing to accept one perfect trip win as the confirmation of some sort of superhorse.

Are you starting from the back of the field?

Is this a Presidental Thread ? I thought we were talking about the
Breeders Cup ??

Remember the Rock of G a few years ago. Any horse can lose?

He hardly lost. That was as impressive a " losing " performance as there has been in BC history. I would say he gained a great deal of respect with that performance.

And believe me, there's no sour grapes, as I bet Domedriver....and got lucky.

You're absolutely right Kev.

Hawk Wing apart, Rock of Gibraltar was competing in a season with a particularly ordinary bunch of milers, and he never produced the form of an outstanding miler, scoring 124 when a fortunate winner of the Guineas. His best figure was 129 in the St James's Palace Stakes, but then only had to run to 124 & 122 to win the Sussex and Moulin. He recorded 125 when runner-up to Domedriver at Arlington.

George Washington put up a 129 in the Guineas, before running to just 116 at the Curragh where the combination of the heavy ground and his suspect temperament got the better of him. At Ascot on Saturday he recorded 132, that's 3lb in excess of the Rock's best Timeform figure. While his temperament remains an issue, there is every reason to believe that he's maturing as he ages.

Only the exceptional Mark of Esteem (136) in 1996 has recorded a higher TF in the QEII in the past decade.

Here's the actual story surrounding the Time Form rating....



George best winner of QEII since Dubai Millennium



by Rodney Masters and Tony O'Hehir

NOT quite yet rubbing shoulders with greatness. Although George Washington was the classiest winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes since Godolphin’s Dubai Millennium in 1999, he remains 5lb shy of the performance recorded by another Godolphin star, Mark Of Esteem, ten years ago.

Racing Post handicapper Paul Curtis raised George Washington, who was reported in good shape by trainer Aidan O'Brien on Sunday, to a rating of 131, an increase of 4lb on the 2,000 Guineas, but on Sunday questioned whether his opponents were quite of the same calibre seen in many previous runnings of the Ascot contest.

“I’ve taken a fairly positive view of the race,” explained Curtis. “George Washington looked fantastic in the Guineas, and he looked fantastic again on Saturday. However, while it was a worthy championship race because it had all the right horses - lots of Group 1 winners - there’s little doubt that Group 1 winners over a mile this year haven’t been a match for many of the equivalent winners in quite a few previousseasons. For example, last year we had the likes of Dubawi, Rakti and Starcraft.”

He added: “Going into Saturday’s race, the best performance amongst the runners to match George Washington’s 2,000 Guineas was Proclamation’s success in last year’s Sussex Stakes. “Under the circumstances, it was difficult to rate the race, but I’ve pencilled in George Washington on 131. I’ve raised both Araafa (second) and Killybegs (fourth) by 5lb, although there remains a question mark over whether they are that good and I’ll be looking to them to uphold the form.”

I think it's pretty important ( and interesting ) to take note of the last two paragraphs from the article. Sounds slightly less than convincing if you ask me.

Regardless, it will be fun to see George Washington race here. I just hope he can handle Miesque's Approval.

Blackthroatedwind,

That's not the story regarding a Timeform rating. That's the OFFICIAL RATING, the rating which governs how much weight each horse would have to carry if they ran in a handicap.

Timeform is a well-established private organisation which produces ratings, we like to think more accurate ratings, for subscribers.

Thanks.

So what was the Time Form rating and would you say the Time Form people would disagree with the quotes from the article?

Sorry...not the official rating, that's the Racing Post rating. You don't want to pay attention to them!

Randall is right. A loss is a loss. Whether or not it was super impressive, if you needed him in the win slot you lose. Game over. You still tear up the ticket as you would if he stumbled at the start and threw his jockey. Or if he didnt fire and got beat by 20. Any horse can lose. Look at Butterface. One day she had a clear lead (6-7 lengths) in midstretch only to get caught by a Dutrow horse.

Here's what we say about the race:

Without doubt the miling championship of Europe, this year's top older horses at the distance Court Masterpiece and Librettist supported by last season's
joint-champion at the distance Proclamation, while the 3-y-os also included the best around among the colts, and it was the younger generation which dominated, George Washington reaffirming his superiority over Araafa as the two Guineas winners came away, recording a top-class performance as he asserted inside the last, not looking all out either; the tempo appeared only fair, despite the presence of at least one pacemaker, but tactics weren't a major issue, at least as far as the result was concerned.



And George Washington specifically:

George Washington finally produced the top-class performance he'd promised last year and this spring, recording as good an effort as seen in this race since Mark of Esteem's outstanding performance in 1996, as well as the best effort seen in Europe all season, at any trip, doing it without needing to come under maximum pressure, although whether he'd have found any more for it is open to doubt; he was on his very best behaviour in the preliminaries, without the presence of an outrider this time, but again showed glimmers of his quirky side in the finish, tracking Araafa through effortlessly having been kept in closer touch than at Goodwood from a much better start this time, but carrying his head high and veering left when switched and shaken up, albeit soon in control; clearly effective on softish ground for all he's raced mainly on good or firmer, he reportedly heads to Churchill Downs to take on the Americans next and must have strong claims in terms of form, though whether his temperament allows him to show it remains a slight question mark on balance, even if he appears to be maturing as the season progresses.

Post race discussions should not be particularly result oriented. The simple fact is that in the case being discussed here Rock of Gibralter's second place finish is irrelevent, his performance in light of the trip stamped his as a superior animal.

If you want to base everything on how you did with a bet then you will miss out on the opportunity to win in the future.

Hwjb
 

Thanks.

I'm still unconvinced but he's clearly a very nice horse. Seems to me only the second place finisher showed up at all. But, perhaps they were just too good.

god sometimes you make me laugh...

I agree, and its pretty obvious to anybody that he was lengths the best on that day. But for those people who needed him and dont bet Eurpo racing and or dont want to bet him back at 3/5, losing still stinks. Whether or not he lost by a halg length or 40 lengths. Its not like it was a bad trip in which only an astute observer of the race would see, and could bet him back 2 weeks later at nice odds. This was one of the most troubled trips ever in a big race and highly written about.

I was only sucking up to Charlotte Byk.

I knew that and it's mrs. charlotte byk to you!

Blackthroat,

Look, the intial post says the horse can't lose, not anything about being the best that day....Any horse can lose. Bad trips in mile turf races with 14 horses are the norm anyway, so he can lose regardless of how good he is. R. O. G. is a perfect example of that....All I heard from ther Euros was that he was unbeatable and he did indeed lose.

Sorry...I understand what you mean now. I hadn't noticed at first that someone had already conceded the BC Mile to, yet another, Euro with behavioral problems.

Those kind have a great record over here.

First law of racing. No horse in unbeatable!

This BCM is shaping up into a much better race than in 2002, with all of Aragorn, Araafa and Iffraaj likely to prove better over the trip than the likes of Domedriver, Good Journey and Beat Hollow (still find it inconceivable that that horse was run in the race!). But by the same token, it would appear that George Washington is a better horse than Rock of Gibraltar, 3lb better at present, with the potential for more to come.

Any more believable than Landseer paying $8.80 when he beat him ( Beat Hollow that is ) a few weeks earlier at Keeneland?

Now THAT was incredible.

Tim I've only told you what BTW tells you here about 1000 times, and I can't believe you don't get that.
Its not just a win/lose game as far as the long run goes. We all know you can't go to the window and cash a ticket off a loss, I think thats obvious.
But if you ever intend to bet a race again, its a good idea to watch the replay and make mental notes or notes on paper so that the next time they run, you can have a better shot at cashing a ticket.
I seem to recall a horse named Ghostzapper getting defeated in the Kings Bishop on one the most ridiculously speed biased tracks in history. He closed wide and flew home beaten a 1/2 length. Using your theory you would not have crushed him next out against elders when he blew them away.
You are trying to take a game with too many variables and relate it to sporting events or personal competition like golf or tennis. It doesn't work like that. The chaotic nature of putting 6-12 1000 pound animals in a metal starting gate and having them race in close quarters at 35 mph plus doesn't lend itself to the type of comparison you are trying to make.

Euro horses as a whole are superior animals to what we have over here. On grass its not even close, we arent in the same league. Why would GW not come over here and trounce a field in the mile?

Oracle, I wasnt arguing that what BTW was saying and what your saying is indeed true. I used that logic to crush a horse this summer at Saratoga who payed $19 to get me out from under a $6,000 hole.

But lets be realistic. Everybody saw Rock of G's trip and there was no possible bet back opportunity for him. So if you lost on him that day, which I did (needed him for a pick 3) it would be hard to think you could recapture that money next time out at 3/5 in Europe.

Randall is right, any horse can lose. To call any horse a cinch is just a lie.