It's starting to look bad for Romney
 

You can get $100 on him right now at 2.71-to-1 odds.




Of course, 5-to-2 shots win all the time...but one thing I've noticed in all the election betting I've followed over the years is that once a market starts to break one way it almost always takes at least several days for the candidate it's breaking against to recover.


There are a few rare exceptions. John Kerry was more than a 3-to-1 favorite to defeat George W. Bush for a few hours on election day in 2004. Bush actually opened the day a slight favorite -- but exit polls initially seemed to suggest Kerry was going to win.

Up until last weekend, the market had been steadily breaking Romney's way.

McCain never really had any traction against Obama in the '08 general. His Palin VP pick helped him in polls but didn't do anything for him in terms of offered odds.

He was the strong favorite to win the presidency ever since he defeated Hillary and John Edwards in the '08 South Carolina primary...and at no point has anyone come close to testing his favoritism status. All through his first term he was a clear-cut odds on favorite to win re-election.

One of the biggest election day collapses I remember was Howard Dean after the Iowa caucuses that kicked off the '04 Dem Primary.

Dean was a huge favorite and looked almost inevitable. However, the former leader of the house and Iowa neighbor from Missouri Dick Gephardt was always running neck and neck with him in the Iowa polls.

Gephardt had won Iowa the first time he ran for president in '88 and he and Dean got into what was supposedly a nasty and negative barrage against each other.

The polls were like Dean 30% Gephardt 28% Kerry 18% Edwards 12% with less than a week to go.

John Kerry ended up winning it and Edwards edged Dean for 2nd. It was both the biggest upset (Kerry winning) I've ever seen and the biggest collapse I've ever seen (Dean was supposed to be a complete cinch even if he wasn't able to win Iowa)

I don't know what was worse for the Dean campaign that day, blowing a 12-point lead to John Kerry or the hyper speech he gave that night with his crazy scream.

That primary was also historic because it was the first bid for president from Dennis Kucinich. Not to mention the badly failed bid from Wesley Clark...which was Rick Perry like.

Obama will bleed thru his lasix. He's strickly a miler trying to get the classic distance.

A michigan bred v. a Kenyan bred? Ever see a kenyan horse? Not pretty.

that's awful. one of the most modern cities in the world, in what is the globe's lone superpower...

and we have people dumpster diving, looking for food. i thought we had pumped time, money and technology into the noaa and others, so as to give people plenty of time to prepare for storms like this. and for fema, the red cross, etc, to get ready.

How about this one:

http://politicker.com/2012/11/staten...the-red-cross/

Bloomberg is doing a great job...just ask Riot

He was just on Anderson Cooper backpeddling like a mo fo

Well, sure he is. Its how they're still having the oh so vitally important marathon saturday. If some people go hungry, or thirsty, well, they just have to understand priorities.

Maybe he will win if dogs and cats are allowed to vote. A flyer was placed on the front door of my mother-in-law's house today. It showed a photo of a dog named Chloe, and it read, "Chloe says vote for Obama for the following reasons: . .. . "

obama seems like he doesn't care anymore. nothing worse than a lame duck pres.

i think the "mitt-ster" might pull this off!

then in typical republican fashion, he will throw us right back in the shitter.

The NYC Marathon continues as planned. You know...gotta show the world New Yorkers have big dicks.

Hey Luigi go get a few generators and cases of water from the disaster areas. Let them eat cake...we have a show to run.

Actually, NOAA has suffered budget cuts in recent years, and Paul Ryan's proposed budget would REALLY cut it. We may see that reverse next year. I hope so.

Compared to the clusterf*ck that was New Orleans after Katrina, things are much better in NYC post-Sandy. I was astounded the MTA got subway service running (partially) by Wednesday night. And, at least for now, bus and subway service is free. Hurricanes are a horrible, horrible mess no matter what, and it's going to be bad, no matter what, but the city is doing a pretty decent job in the wake of some really, really bad damage.

Speaking as an NYC'er, I'm not upset about the NYC Marathon running as scheduled. A lot of businesses took a big hit during the hurricane, and the participants and the spectators spend money while they're here. It'll be good for the economy.

EDIT: Marathon just cancelled. Here's a question- the people who run have to raise a certain amount of money for charity to participate. Do the charities lose the money since the marathon wasn't run? Does anyone know how that works?

New Orleans after Katrina isn't a very good measuring stick. It was hard to get things up and running there when most of the city remained under water for more than a week.

Remember, you are talking to someone taking up much more than their allotted air space.

Let me take a wild guess, if you live in Manhattan you live above 39th Street or in a place that did not lose power, water or was under water. Thanks for making it clear that you are an azzhole.

I'll bet she ran to a Dumbinger thread.

Mitt doesn't care, he's fat and happy...

Good grief; I'm not saying things are good here- I used the words "really really bad damage," in fact ; I'm saying that COMPARED TO THE CLUSTERF*CK THAT WAS NEW ORLEANS things are better. I don't think anyone disputes that NYC is doing a better job handling the devastation than New Orleans did.

But thanks for showing kindergarteners have better reading comprehension than you do.

Oh shut up.

And sections of NO still aren't up and running, seven years later. Do you think Howard Beach or Staten Island are still going to be a mess, seven years later? I don't.

It was a f*cking tragedy. But the city is doing an extraordinarily good job recovering from it. And part of it is that the city did a good job preparing for it. It could have been so, so, much worse than what it was.

New Orleans isn't the only thing under sea level.

Guy i know lives near Richmond,KY...Voted for Bush in 2000..sent me this note..

mittnochio...nice.

The little news that I have heard in the past week has been calling it too close to call.

Since I think that the media is extremely slanted towards Obama, it kind of makes me think (and hope) that it could actually be Rommney in a walk.

Wanna hear some interesting news?

Guess who the Democrats are going to defeat Mitch McConnell with next election? Ashley Judd.

Aqua Budda has worn out his welcome with all but the most uneducated voters. He's not his father, certainly.

Kentucky is a slight but marked majority Democratic state, based upon population centers of Louisville and Lexington - both of whose major newspapers just came out to support Obama's re-election this weekend. Moving away from blue dog Dems.

And Texas will be Democratic in 2016-2020. Can't stop demographics.

Nate Silver has Obama an 86% chance re-election. Nate is a former horseplayer who is a numbers geek. His numbers analysis of electoral races have stood the test of accuracy.

www.fivethirtyeight.com

I see that even Rasmussen, CNN, etc. have given it to Obama today. You can't be too far off in the end (Ras is a notorious +4 R bias on their polling methodology)

We see the media totally opposite (of course LOL) - I think the "oh, it's close!" media thing of the past two weeks has been exaggerated, making it appear Romney has a better chance than he does via the polling. This weekend Romney camp realized it's over.

The SuperPacs have already started the "why we lost meme, it was Sandy's fault, not the candidate" to placate the folks that donated a billion dollars to Romney. Sheldon Adelson is gonna be pissed, that DOJ investigation is gonna continue.