Hwjb's betting diary
 

Don't know if any of you boys bet much on British racing, but I intend to post my bets here each day, if you'll so permit, to 1) help me try and maintain some discipline with my betting, and 2) to give those of you interested some insight into racing over here.


220906: Ascot Festival - Day 1.

First day of a fascinating 3-day festival, and a couple of horses to get stuck into.

2:35: Scottish Stage (1pt win @ 5/2). Her Irish Derby second represents the best form in the race, and her flop last time is best put down to her failing to see out the 14f trip. The drop back to 12f will suit, as will the return to Ascot where she ran so well in the Ribblesdale.

3:10: Pretty Majestic (1pt win @ 7/1, 2pts place @ 1.76/1). Really impressed at Chester last time, and she is very much going the right way. This represents a stiffer task still, but she looks the best way of taking on a hot favourite (who admittedly has clearly the best form in the book).

Whazzis (0.5pt win @ 13/1, 1pt place @ 100/30). Finished 3rd to Pretty Majestic last time, but that was her racecourse debut and mere fact that it was in a fairly hot race intimates connections think a bit of her. Shaped really well, and surely more to come.

4:20: Dubai On (2pt win lay @ 1.85/1 ) May well turn out to be a cut above this opposition on first start for Godolphin, but he's far too short a price on first start for a year, against several rivals who've been in decent form.

Haydock

4:30 Celtic Spirit (2pts win @ 11/4) Unexposed, improving and scored with plenty in hand at Sandown last time. Worthy favourite.

Sacranun (0.5pt win @ 29/1) Not given hard time on seasonal reappearance, and, if freshened up by first-time visor could make his odds look far too big, with Luca Cumani boasting an impressive strike rate here.

Worcester

4:10: Cheeky Lad (5pts win @ 6/4) Will make all and win by half the track. Banker.

A couple of questions, hwjb:

1. Do you intend to keep a running tab on your results?
2. "lay" means you are betting that a horse will lose, right?
3. "place" means come in 2nd or 3rd?
4. "pts" is some unit of betting, right? Is it an arbitrary unit, or does it have a specific reference.
5. Are the odds you quote fixed odds that you know you can get from the bookmakers?
6. Do you have to pay any sort of immediate tax or commission on what you win?

Thanks,
--Dunbar

Dunbar,

1) I will attempt to keep up to date as mcuh as possible. If not every day, then I imagine I will be able to manage to keep score on current profits(hopefully)/losses(probably) every other day. We'll see how it goes!

2) I do most of my betting on Betfair, where you can 'lay' a horse, that is bet on it to lose.

3) Place means 1st or 2nd in races with 7 or fewer entrants. 1st, 2nd or 3rd in handicap races with 8-15 entrants or non-handicaps with 8+ entrants. 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in handicaps with 16+ entrants. Bit confusing, I know!

4) My points are on a simple scale from 1-10. I very rarely bet 7+ pts, and will probably only have a 5pt bet once a week or so...wanted to get this off with a juicy bet today, and as I speak Cheeky Lad has romped home! My wage is pretty poor so I can't afford to bet that heavily, and therefore 1pt = £10 for me.

5) The odds I quote will either be fixed with bookmakers or available on an exchange (most likely Betfair).

6) There is no betting tax with bookmakers, that was scrapped in 2001! There is a commission of 5% to be paid on winnings accrued with Betfair, although this decreases the more you bet with them...although for the sake of simplicity I'll work it out at 5% on all bets placed on BF!


Hope that helps!

LOL..only Europeans keep diaries

220906 Results:

2:35 Asc: Scottish Stage 1pt win @ 5/2: 8th of 13. Total dog and not to be bet on again! -1pt.

3:10 Asc: Pretty Majestic 1pt win @ 7/1, 2pts place @ 1.76/1: 10th of 22. Torrential rain beforehand not ideal, but still a poor run. -3pts.
Whazzis 0.5pt win @ 13/1, 1pt place @ 100/30: 4th of 22. And an ominous start continues! -1.5pts.

4:20 Asc: Dubai On 2pt win lay @ 1.85/1: 4th of 9: First points on the board. +2pts.

4:30 Hay: Celtic Spirit 2pts win @ 11/4: =3rd of 16: -2pts.
Sacranun 0.5pt win @ 29/1: =3rd of 16: I deserve shooting for not backing that to place! -0.5pt.

4:10 Wor: Cheeky Lad 5pts win @ 6/4: 1st of 5: Saved! +7.5pts.

Total for Day 1: +1.5pts. A lot of hard work for minimal reward, although I never argue when I'm winning! I can afford to get drunk tonight, at least!

230906: Ascot Festival Day 2...an intriguing day of racing.

2:00: A host of non-runners have turned this race on its head, but there should still be some value in backing 3 of those remaining in the race, although the prices are considerably shorter than they would have been!
Unshakable (2pts @ 8.2/1)...ran particularly well when things were all against him at Goodwood last time.
My Paris (1.5pts @ 7/1)...well weighted, and interesting in the Cambridgeshire next week, may well take this en route.
Arminius (1pt @ 14.4/1)...ran better than result suggests at York last time.

3:10: Satulagi (0.5pt e/w @ 50/1)...a consistent filly, albeit an unlikly winner, who is simply too big a price with the step up to 1m sure to suit.

3:45: Esquire (1pt win @ 12/1)
Trafalgar Square (1 pt win @ 12/1)

4:20...the big one:
George Washington (2pts win @ 2.95/1)...big reservations regarding his temperament, but fairly sure he's the best in the race, and certainly has to be backed at the price.
Proclamation (1pt win @ 5.9/1)...already backed this boy e/w at 9/1 ante post so not getting stuck in at much shorter odds today, but big chance.
Araafa (2pts place @ 1/1)...ground suits, set to leave Sussex form well behind.
Librettist (4pts lay @ 2.6/1)...ridiculous price given his form, should be more like a 6/1 shot; not for me, Dettori made wrong choice.

Haydock

2:55
Knot In Wood (1pt win @ 4/1)...ultra tough/consistent, unlucky last time when racing on the wrong side.
Stanley Goodspeed (2pts win @ 14/1, 2pts place @ 3.4/1)...may be in a good spot here against his elders off bottom weight.

Chester

2:50
Lucky Bee (1pt win @ 3.4/1)...Alan Swinbank's 2-y-o is best off at the weights judged on form, some of her opponents may be open to improvement though.

3:20
Dhaular Dhar (2pts e/w @ 10/1)...Chester specialist, needs luck in running.

4:30
Jeepstar (1pt win @ 16/1)...big chance, Stuart Williams will get the best out of him sooner rather than later.
Sendinpost (1pt win @ 4/1)...anoterh Williams charge, will prove himself well weighted.

5:05
Handsome Cross (1pt win @ 13.5/1)...return to Chester will suit.

Market Rasen

3:50
Is It Me (8pts win @ 0.76/1)...I haven't got into the jumping season properly yet, but it doesn't take a genius to work out that thisjuvenile hurdler is well above average, possibly capable of playing a hand in the Triumph at Cheltenham in March if given a break at some point.

Harry....1 word for you Pinnacle. THEY PAY YOU to bet with them. 7% refund on all horse wagers, win or lose. 4% for New York tracks.

Check into that and see if it is the same for betting horses across the pond. It is rediculous for you to be paying any commissions to them.

You need to try it. It might help you from having to ask mom for more money every monday.

Kev, can you bet overseas tracks with pinny? I've only seen the button to bet north america and even then they dont carry some tracks.

Unshakable (2pts @ 8.2/1): 7th of 13: -2pts
My Paris (1.5pts @ 7/1): 11th of 13: -1.5pts
Arminius (1pt @ 14.4/1): 10th of 13: -1pt

Satulagi (0.5pt e/w @ 50/1): 4th of 8: -1pt

Esquire (1pt win @ 12/1): 17th of 18: -1pt
Trafalgar Square (1 pt win @ 12/1): 16th of 18: -1pt

George Washington (2pts win @ 2.95/1): 1st of 8: +5.6pts
Proclamation (1pt win @ 5.9/1): 5th of 8: -1pt
Araafa (2pts place @ 1/1): 2nd of 8: +1.9pts
Librettist (4pts lay @ 2.6/1): 6th of 8: +4pts

Knot In Wood (1pt win @ 4/1): 2nd of 12: -1pt
Stanley Goodspeed (2pts win @ 14/1, 2pts place @ 3.4/1): 1st of 12: +34.4pts
Lucky Bee (1pt win @ 3.4/1):: 5th of 10: -1pt

Dhaular Dhar (2pts e/w @ 10/1): 2nd of 12: +2pts

Jeepstar (1pt win @ 16/1): 2nd of 12: -1pt
Sendinpost (1pt win @ 4/1): 11th of 12: -1pt

Handsome Cross (1pt win @ 13.5/1): 3rd of 14: -1pt

Is It Me (8pts win @ 0.76/1): 2nd of 10: -8pts...ouch, bad mistake at 2nd last put paid to his chances.

Day 2 results: +26.4pts
Total: +27.9pts

Sounds like a great place to bet, but unfortunately can't get on any of the European tracks. Will bear it in mind for when I bet on US racing tho, speaking of which I really like Octave in the Matron at Belmont tonight, just not sure if she's going to represent any value.

Far too hungover to get properly stuck in today, but will have a wee bit on a few fancies at Ascot.

240906: Ascot


2:15 Artimino 1pt win @ 7/2.
2:45 Munsef 3pts win @ 2.4/1. Fear Young Mick, of course, but this one really should have too much.
3:15 Peppertree Lane 1pt win @ 2.4/1. Just to have something to shout for.
3:45 Somnus 3pts win @ 3.4/1
3:50 Baltic King 1pt win @ 5.6/1...1 of the 2 will win!



Huntingdon

3:40 Psycho Cat 1pt win lay @ 7.2/1, 4pts place lay @ 1.34/1


All pretty boring stuff, I'm gonna go and slump myself in front of TV for rest of day with a view to passing out!

Chad, I think it is all based on where you live. I'm sure if you sign up using a Euro address, you can bet there races....but who knows.

Predictably enough endured a poor day yesterday!

2:15 Artimino 1pt win @ 7/2: 2nd of 14: -1pt
2:45 Munsef 3pts win @ 2.4/1: 2nd of 8: -3pts
3:15 Peppertree Lane 1pt win @ 2.4/1: 3rd of 13: -1pt
3:45 Somnus 3pts win @ 3.4/1: 6th of 10: -3pts
3:50 Baltic King 1pt win @ 5.6/1: 2nd of 10: -1pt

3:40 Psycho Cat 1pt win lay @ 7.2/1, 4pts place lay @ 1.34/1: last of 8 finishers: +5pts


Day 3: -4pts
Total: 23.9pts

250906: Day 4:

Bath:

14:20: Kyllachy Storm (0.5pt win @ 14/1, 1pt place @ 9/4)
14:50: Our Monogram (0.5pt win @ 10/1)
16:20: Pentatonic (2pts win @ 7/2)
17:20: Chilly Cracker (1pt win @ 13.5/1)

Brighton:

15:00: Ektimaal (3pts win lay @ 1.96/1)
15:30: Flint River (2pts e/w @ 7/1)
15:30: The Gaikwar (1pt e/w @ 9/1)
15:30: My Princess (2pts win lay @ 4.4/1)
16:00: Regal Dream (2pts win @ 8.2/1)
16:30: Accent (1pt win @ 4.6/1)
17:00: Chinalea (3pts e/w @ 5/1)
17:00: Who's Winning (1pt win @ 10/1)

Hamilton:

14:10: Paddywack (2pts win @ 5.2/1)
16:40: Tilt (1pt win @ 7/1)
16:40: Cool Customer (2pts win lay @ 3.6/1)

Thanks for the thorough answers, and congrats on your excellent start!

You are doing a great job in both selections and record-keeping. I'd make one suggestion on the latter. It's useful, IMO, to keep track of the total "pts" you bet since you started the diary. I know you are probably keeping track of that, but it would be useful to report it in the "diary". Also, the number of races you've bet.

Congrats again on the good work.

--Dunbar

250906: Day 4 Results:

Bath:

14:20: Kyllachy Storm (0.5pt win @ 14/1, 1pt place @ 9/4): 5th of 15: -1.5pts
14:50: Our Monogram (0.5pt win @ 10/1): 7th of 12: -0.5pt
16:20: Pentatonic (2pts win @ 7/2): 1st of 12: +7pts
17:20: Chilly Cracker (1pt win @ 13.5/1): 9th of 14: -1pt

Brighton:

15:00: Ektimaal (3pts win lay @ 1.96/1): 3rd of 8: +3pts
15:30: Flint River (2pts e/w @ 7/1): 3rd of 8: +0.8pt
15:30: The Gaikwar (1pt e/w @ 9/1): 6th of 8: -2pts
15:30: My Princess (2pts win lay @ 4.4/1): 1st of 8: -8.8pts
16:00: Regal Dream (2pts win @ 8.2/1): 10th of 15: -2pts
16:30: Accent (1pt win @ 4.6/1): last of 14: -1pt
17:00: Chinalea (3pts e/w @ 5/1): 3rd of 10: +0.75pt
17:00: Who's Winning (1pt win @ 10/1): 3rd of 10: -1pt

Hamilton:

14:10: Paddywack (2pts win @ 5.2/1): 4th of 15: -2pts
16:40: Tilt (1pt win @ 7/1): 3rd of 7: -1pt
16:40: Cool Customer (2pts win lay @ 3.6/1): 2nd of 7: +2pts

Day 4 total: -5.25pts
Total: +18.65pts

Dunbar,

Thanks for the input!

I intend to post some more comprehensive results at the end of each week, and I'll stick up my profit/loss on investment, no. of races, %winners etc etc, then.

270906 Day 6:

Newcastle:

2:10 Arena's Dream 2pts win @11/4
Ben Chorley 1pt win @ 4/1
3:40 Aperitif 1pt e/w @ 20/1
4:10 Gallileo Figaro 2pt e/w @ 16/1
5:10 Paddywack 1pt win @ SP

Lingfield:

2:20 Loch Tay 2pts win @ SP
2:50 Murrin 6pts win @ SP
3:50 Moon On A Spoon 5pts win @ SP

Salisbury:

4:30 Dubai Builder 4pts win @ SP
5:00 Greek Renaissance 5pts win @ SP

270906 Day 6:

Newcastle:

2:10 Arena's Dream 2pts win @11/4: 4th of 14: -2pts
Ben Chorley 1pt win @ 4/1: 1st of 15: +4pts
3:40 Aperitif 1pt e/w @ 20/1: 12th of 14: -2pts
4:10 Gallileo Figaro 2pt e/w @ 16/1: 6th of 15: -4pts
5:10 Paddywack 1pt win @ SP: 5th of 17: -1pt

Lingfield:

2:20 Loch Tay 2pts win @ SP: 5th of 12: -2pts
2:50 Murrin 6pts win @ SP: 1st of 11 (@ 100/30): +20pts
3:50 Moon On A Spoon 5pts win @ SP: 2nd of 15: -5pts

Salisbury:

4:30 Dubai Builder 4pts win @ SP: 1st of 4 (@10/11): +3.64pts
5:00 Greek Renaissance 5pts win @ SP: 2nd of 16: -5pts


Day 6 total: +6.64pts
Total: +25.29pts

280906: Day 7:

Newmarket:

2:55 Davenport, 2pts e/w @ 16/1.
3:30 Asperity, 3pts win lay @ 0.8/1.
4:05 Zurbaran, 3pts win @ 11/2.
5:15 Cape, 2pts win lay @ 0.9/1.
5:45 Gee Dee Nen, 1pt e/w @ 9/2.

Ayr:

2:35 How's She Cuttin', 1pt e/w @ 11/2.
3:10 Doric Charm, 1pt win lay @ 1.94/1.
3:45 Arch of Titus, 2pts win lay @ 2.6/1.
5:25 Writ, 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1.
5:55 Taranis, 2pts win @ 7/1..

Hereford:

2:45 Moss Bawn 2pts win @ 9/2.
Young Tot 2pts win @ 3.8/1.
3:20 Archimboldo 5pts win @ 2.38/1.
3:55 Canopus, 2pts win @ 3/1.
5:05 Bollitree Bob, 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1.



GOLF:
AmEx Championship:

S.Garcia to win 3-ball vs Clark & Verplank, 3pts @ 11/8.

[quote=Hwjb[I]]280906: Day 7:

Newmarket:

2:55 Davenport, 2pts e/w @ 16/1: 15th of 17: -4pts
3:30 Asperity, 3pts win lay @ 0.8/1: 1st of 15: -2.4pts
4:05 Zurbaran, 3pts win @ 11/2: 2nd of 7: -3pts
5:15 Cape, 2pts win lay @ 0.9/1: 1st of 10: -1.8pts
5:45 Gee Dee Nen, 1pt e/w @ 9/2: 4th of 9: -2pts

Ayr:

2:35 How's She Cuttin', 1pt e/w @ 11/2: 2nd of 17: +1.38pts
3:10 Doric Charm, 1pt win lay @ 1.94/1: 1st of 8: -1.94pts
3:45 Arch of Titus, 2pts win lay @ 2.6/1: 4th of 7: +2pts
5:25 Writ, 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1: 6th of 14: -1pt
5:55 Taranis, 2pts win @ 7/1: 4th of 14: -2pts

Hereford:

2:45 Moss Bawn 2pts win @ 9/2: 1st of 13: +9pts
Young Tot 2pts win @ 3.8/1: 6th of 13: -2pts
3:20 Archimboldo 5pts win @ 2.38/1: 3rd of 10: -5pts
3:55 Canopus, 2pts win @ 3/1: 9th of 13: -2pts
5:05 Bollitree Bob, 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1: Fell: -1pt[/i]

A truly shocking day, the narrow loss of Zurbaran really hurt.

Day 7 results: -15.76pts
Total: +9.53pts

290906: Day 8:

Newmarket:

1:30 Thousand Words 2pts e/w @ SP
2:00 Indian Ink 2pts e/w @ SP
2:35 Chataway 1pt e/w @ SP
3:45 Fire And Rain 3pts e/w @ SP
4:20 Al Tharib 2pts win @ SP
5:30 Mosharref 1pt win @ SP

Hexham:
2:45 Basinet 1pt win @ SP
3:20 Another Promise 2pts e/w @ SP
4:30 Primus Inter Pares 2pts win lay @ SP

Lingfield:
1:50 All You Need 8pts win @ SP
2:20 Ten Dollars More 2pts win @ SP
4:05 Carmenero 3pts e/w @ SP
5:15 Particle 1pt win @ SP
5:45 Thebestisyettocome 2pts e/w @ SP

300906: Day 9:

Newmarket:

2:35
Olympian Odyssey 3pts win: 5th of 8: -3pts

3:45...devestated that Unshakable missed the cut by 1
Illustrious Blue 1pt e/w: 9th of 33: -2pts
Day To Remember 1pt e/w: 30th of 33: -2pts

4:20
Blithe 3pts win: 1st of 17 (@ 7/2): 10.5pts

4:55
Areyoutalkingtome 1pt e/w: 3rd of 8 (@ 3/1): -0.4pt


Fontwell:

5:20
Sirnando 8pts win: 2nd of 6: -8pts

Day 9 total: -4.9pts
Total: +21.98pts

Day 8 total: +17.35pts
Total: +26.88pts

Day 12: 041006:

Haven't properly got into the swings on the jumps yet, so just a few small plays at Exe/Tow today.

Exeter
3:40 Cociembe 2pts win

Towcester
4:00 Robbie Can Can 2pts win

Nottingham
2:20 Doric Charm 4pts win
2:50 Capricho 1pt e/w
3:20 Woqoodd 2pts win
4:50 Charlie Tokyo 2pts e/w

Day 12 total: +7.67pts
Total 34.55pts

Have spent a week or so becoming au fait with the jumps season, and am going to start gearing up my betting over sticks whilst I phase out the flat bets.

Some really good racing at Wetherby today, and with rain here, a few miles down the road, I expect conditions a fair bit softer than predicted.

3:05...a cracking maiden chase, featuring 2 graduates I reall like.
Preferences is for KING OF CONFUSION...3pts win

3:35...interesting handicap, with New Alco a young horse I imagine will do well in time.
Gonna take a chance with MANDINGO CHIEF off his featherweight, and he may be able to dictate matter. 2pts win

4:10...slight question over his fitness, but TOWN CRIER is thrown in if ready to go. 2pts win.


Uttoxeter

3:45...Sam Adamson can go in again. 3pts win.
4:20...Bermuda Pointe. 4pts win.

Lingfield

2:55...Fast Heart 2pts win
4:30...Bobsleigh 1pt e/w
5:00...Ballybeg 2pts win

Ludlow 4:30

Neveesou 5pts win

Fairly catastrophic.


Wetherby
3:05 King of Confusion 3pts win: 2nd of 7: -3pt
3:35 Manding Chief 2pts win: 1st of 9 @ 7/2: +7pts
4:10 Town Crier: 7th of 9: -2pts

Uttoxeter
3:45...Sam Adamson 3pts win: PU: -3pts
4:20...Bermuda Pointe. 4pts win: 3rd of 7: -4pts

Lingfield

2:55...Fast Heart 2pts win: 4th of 12: -2pts
4:30...Bobsleigh 1pt e/w: 10th of 13: -2pts
5:00...Ballybeg 2pts win: 5th of 13 -2pts


Day Total -11pts
Total +23.55pts

Have been taking it steadily with the jumps season thus far, but I reckon today sees an outstanding bet.

STRONG RESOLVE 3:10, Haydock. 10pts win @ 9/4. This fella lost his way last season, but as a consequence is dangerously well handicapped, some 17lbs lower than when runner-up in the Welsh Grand National in Dec 04. However he made a most encouraging reappearance last month when a narrow second to a well treated rival, the pair well clear. 9/4 represents outstanding value against a field of horses largely handicapped out of things. Showers a predicted at Haydock, the softer the better.

[quote=Hwjb]Have been taking it steadily with the jumps season thus far, but I reckon today sees an outstanding bet.

STRONG RESOLVE 3:10, Haydock. 10pts win @ 9/4. This fella lost his way last season, but as a consequence is dangerously well handicapped, some 17lbs lower than when runner-up in the Welsh Grand National in Dec 04. However he made a most encouraging reappearance last month when a narrow second to a well treated rival, the pair well clear. 9/4 represents outstanding value against a field of horses largely handicapped out of things. Showers a predicted at Haydock, the softer the better.[/QUOTE]

Happy Days!

Strong Resolve: 1st of 9 @ 9/4: +22.5pts

Total +46.05pts

Congrats on that pick, Hjwb. It's nice when your biggest bet comes in!

--Dunbar

3:50 Fakenham

Brooklyn Brownie 6pts win.

Thanks a lot Dunbar...certainly had a good night last night.
These are some of my favourite days of the jumps season, things are warming up and there always seem to be some good bets about.

Ran a stinker, got stuffed: -6pts


Fancy a few today, put far too hungover to place more than two bets.

TARANIS. 1:55 @ Chp This horse is a monster, starting him off over hurdles and prolly wont be 100% fit. No matter, will absolutely slaughter this lot. 8pts win

ALFIE FLITS. 2:40 @ Nwb Testing condions will hold no fears and must go close. 3pts win

Good Luck folks!

4th of 7: -6pts

Total +40.05pts

TARANIS made a very encouraging reappearance, winning well in the end. Will improve significantly for the step up to 3m. Unfortunately I missed the decent prices: 1st of 9 @ 4/5: +6.4pts

ALFIE FLITS never went a yard, and maybe doesn't want ground so deep. Still think he's a classy horse, and will be interesting to see if Swinbank goes back to hurdles with him or, on the back of Collier Hill's big win, looks overseas for some rich Flat races. He's a lot better than this. 10th of 11: -3pts.

+43.45pts

We don't really cover Oz racing at all, and I'm not really au fait with any of their horses. Although Tawqeet is one I know a bit about as he was trained by John Dunlop over here last season, including when finishing 3rd to Scorpion in the St Leger.
I downright refuse to back any Australian horse for the Melbourne Cup so my lack of knowledge isn't a real hindrance when it comes to that. We have a fierce sporting rivalry with the Aussies, so I'll probably back all the British challengers (& Yeats) in a double with England to win the Ashes this winter (that's cricket if you didn't know)!!