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-   -   Iowa Republican Straw Poll (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45054)

Riot 01-02-2012 07:54 PM
Iowa Republican Straw Poll
 
Finally! The completely non-binding, means nothing for convention delegates, hasn't-picked-the-president-since-the-last-century Iowa "Campaign for the Crazy" has arrived.

Four want to bomb Iraq as soon as they take the White House. One says that's crazy. Two are birthers. All are against a woman's right to choose. Four are against gay rights. Three say they've been chosen by a decidedly Christian God to run for President (two are gonna be pretty disappointed in her tomorrow night). All have "tax plans" that will raise your taxes markedly, but cut taxes on the wealthy. All want to take away your kids Medicare.

Choose your poison!

Edit: Ack, forgot Newt. Well, he can be "Srsly?"

hi_im_god 01-02-2012 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot (Post 828673)
Finally! The completely non-binding, means nothing for convention delegates, hasn't-picked-the-president-since-the-last-century Iowa "Campaign for the Crazy" has arrived.

Four want to bomb Iraq as soon as they take the White House. One says that's crazy. Two are birthers. All are against a woman's right to choose. Four are against gay rights. Three say they've been chosen by a decidedly Christian God to run for President (two are gonna be pretty disappointed in her tomorrow night). All have "tax plans" that will raise your taxes markedly, but cut taxes on the wealthy. All want to take away your kids Medicare.

Choose your poison!

Edit: Ack, forgot Newt. Well, he can be "Srsly?"
iowa chose george bush in 2000 and 2004 and barak obama in 2008. 3 for 3 recently.

and 8/14 isn't all that bad when you have to go first.

obama was the insurgent candidate against the well funded clinton organization four years ago. she looked inevitable until iowa delivered.

how soon we forget.

i like iowa and new hampshire. they're completely unrepresentative but you can't have retail politics in big states. they're the only places you'll see anything close to a local election where the candidates have to actually go out and meet people.

Riot 01-02-2012 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 828686)
iowa chose george bush in 2000 and 2004 and barak obama in 2008. 3 for 3 recently.

and 8/14 isn't all that bad when you have to go first.
You're right. I'm thinking of the Ames Straw Poll (which chose, for example, Bachmann this year), not the Caucus.

Quote:
i like iowa and new hampshire. they're completely unrepresentative but you can't have retail politics in big states. they're the only places you'll see anything close to a local election where the candidates have to actually go out and meet people.
Ditto. I'm thinking that Ron Paul and Santorum may be the big winners, with Romney third, and Bachmann, Perry and Gingrich out of it. Gringrich is already whining today about his loss.

Obama was really good at retail, as was Hillary and Palin. McCain was terrible. Romney is ... creepy. He just is weird, the way he tries to "interact". Paul and Bachmann play to their audience who views them as rock stars. Santorum has worked hard, and it's paying off in the last-minute "not Romney" panic, he's got his moment in the sun finally, and it's timed right. Gingrich has turned into the angry old man on the book tour who thought he was getting the big freebee he thinks he deserves, but it was taken away.

Arletta 01-02-2012 09:28 PM
Giddy up! :D

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...rse_race_.html

bigrun 01-02-2012 09:31 PM

Riot 01-02-2012 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 828698)
Outstanding! :D :tro:

hi_im_god 01-02-2012 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot (Post 828693)
You're right. I'm thinking of the Ames Straw Poll (which chose, for example, Bachmann this year), not the Caucus.



Ditto. I'm thinking that Ron Paul and Santorum may be the big winners, with Romney third, and Bachmann, Perry and Gingrich out of it. Gringrich is already whining today about his loss.

Obama was really good at retail, as was Hillary and Palin. McCain was terrible. Romney is ... creepy. He just is weird, the way he tries to "interact". Paul and Bachmann play to their audience who views them as rock stars. Santorum has worked hard, and it's paying off in the last-minute "not Romney" panic, he's got his moment in the sun finally, and it's timed right. Gingrich has turned into the angry old man on the book tour who thought he was getting the big freebee he thinks he deserves, but it was taken away.
any votes for santorum or paul may as well be counted as romney votes. gingrich, flaws and all, was the only candidate that had any chance to derail the romney nomination.

santorum has no money or organization. paul has an enthusiastic base and i expect he'll be the last man standing since they've actually organized. but there's zero chance an anti-war candidate wins the republican nomination.

bigrun 01-02-2012 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arletta (Post 828698)
I gotta deuce on Mitt...:D

hi_im_god 01-02-2012 10:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 828705)
I gotta deuce on Mitt...:D
i'd take santorum but i also liked saarland in the derby. it's a hopeless closer thing.

hi_im_god 01-02-2012 10:46 PM
intrade monday night:

romney 50.9
paul 27.1
santorum 21.8

Riot 01-03-2012 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 828710)
intrade monday night:

romney 50.9
paul 27.1
santorum 21.8
I wonder if Santorum (TM) will win this thing tonight?

hi_im_god 01-03-2012 05:45 PM
intrade 345 pst:

romney 41.0
paul 29.9
santorum 28.0

i wish i had bought santorum last night. nice 28.4% return in less than 24 hours if you sold at 28.

Riot 01-03-2012 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 828838)
intrade 345 pst:

romney 41.0
paul 29.9
santorum 28.0

i wish i had bought santorum last night. nice 28.4% return in less than 24 hours if you sold at 28.
Humm ... say if it goes like this ...
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 0
Perry 12
Gingrich 8

That leaves 75, how about
Santorum 25
Romney 30
Paul 18

I think Paul will not be chosen (unelectable) and I'm reading/hearing rumors that the evangelicals will NOT vote Mormon.

We'll know in a few hours ;)

Riot 01-03-2012 10:55 PM
So - evangelicals will NOT vote Mormon.

Let's hope Santorum gets donations of gasoline, to drive that pickup truck to New Hampshire! Debate this weekend will be brutal via Newt. Now he has nothing to lose, and he already said he's going postal on Romney.

Meanwhile, DNC is laughing, and keeping their money dry. The GOP has come far beyond the "extreme" of Sarah Palin. Now they only have candidates representing their extremes facing off: evangelical Big Government Social Takeover type vs. The 1% Wealthy. Guess who will win? Yay, Citizens United!

Ocala Mike 01-04-2012 10:15 AM
Iowa Republican Straw Poll
 
DNC is laughing because they don't have to play the "divide and conquer" card; Repugnicans are saving them the trouble.

The only hope the R's ever had was to UNITE behind a candidate EARLY ON. This thing's got a lot of ugliness left, and the R's are eating their young before our eyes.

I don't think it was a record final voter turnout, either, which was one thing the Dems didn't want to see.


Ocala Mike

bigrun 01-04-2012 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 828705)
I gotta deuce on Mitt...:D

What he win by, 18 votes?....Did i win?,,,:D

bigrun 01-04-2012 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike (Post 828989)
DNC is laughing because they don't have to play the "divide and conquer" card; Repugnicans are saving them the trouble.

The only hope the R's ever had was to UNITE behind a candidate EARLY ON. This thing's got a lot of ugliness left, and the R's are eating their young before our eyes.

I don't think it was a record final voter turnout, either, which was one thing the Dems didn't want to see.


Ocala Mike


Have you ever seen a glummer or grouchier bunch of presidential aspirants than the current GOP crop? You’d be working those frown lines, too, I guess, if you thought, as Rick Santorum does, that this year’s race will decide “whether we will be a free people.” Or believed, as Michele Bachmann told Sean Hannity on Monday, that Iran might go nuclear before Inauguration Day.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c=nl_headlines

geeker2 01-04-2012 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike (Post 828989)
DNC is laughing because they don't have to play the "divide and conquer" card; Repugnicans are saving them the trouble.

The only hope the R's ever had was to UNITE behind a candidate EARLY ON. This thing's got a lot of ugliness left, and the R's are eating their young before our eyes.

I don't think it was a record final voter turnout, either, which was one thing the Dems didn't want to see.


Ocala Mike
Yeah like it was a love fest between Hillary and Obama in 2007-2008 :rolleyes:

I think it is actually good that they test each other now. That way by the time Debbie "WFT is a matter with my hair" Wasserman-Shites pukes her hate and demonizing - no one will care.

BTW "This year's caucus also set a record for turnout, with 122,255 total votes case. The previous record for the GOP caucus was 119,000 votes, set in 2008."

hi_im_god 01-04-2012 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike (Post 828989)
DNC is laughing because they don't have to play the "divide and conquer" card; Repugnicans are saving them the trouble.

The only hope the R's ever had was to UNITE behind a candidate EARLY ON. This thing's got a lot of ugliness left, and the R's are eating their young before our eyes.

I don't think it was a record final voter turnout, either, which was one thing the Dems didn't want to see.


Ocala Mike
it is early on, mike. it's not as if the nomination fight is going to drag on much longer.

romney has money and organization. he'll be the nominee and get the support of all but the narrowest band of registered republicans in november.

it's a fight for independents from here on. the rest of the primaries are a sideshow before the inevitable occurs. no serious damage is being done. no one will remember much about january in august.

geeker2 01-04-2012 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 829027)
it is early on, mike. it's not as if the nomination fight is going to drag on much longer.

romney has money and organization. he'll be the nominee and get the support of all but the narrowest band of registered republicans in november.

it's a fight for independents from here on. the rest of the primaries are a sideshow before the inevitable occurs. no serious damage is being done. no one will remember much about january in august.
well put :tro:

Riot 01-04-2012 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 829027)
it is early on, mike. it's not as if the nomination fight is going to drag on much longer.

romney has money and organization. he'll be the nominee and get the support of all but the narrowest band of registered republicans in november.
He'll be the nominee, but some are starting to wonder aloud if Gingrich is actually being paid by the Democrats :p We'll see this Sat/Sun when the next debate happens in NH. Gingrich angry is Gingrich stupid - and he has nothing to lose now being foolish in his aggressive vindiction to go after Romney.

Quote:
it's a fight for independents from here on.
True. But Romney is blowing it bigtime. His instincts were right the first time, don't worry about Iowa, it's just the evangelical vote. Don't go there. I think Romney has made a big mistake changing his plan, and hitting it as hard as he could. Now he's got reels of soundbites of crazy he'll never be able to take back, much to the Democrats glee.

Romney might be taken out. Nobody though Hillary could lose, either. NH will be boring, but South Carolina will be awesome.

Riot 01-04-2012 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigrun (Post 828998)
Have you ever seen a glummer or grouchier bunch of presidential aspirants than the current GOP crop? You’d be working those frown lines, too, I guess, if you thought, as Rick Santorum does, that this year’s race will decide “whether we will be a free people.”
I've never seen a bunch that wanted government to take over our lives and dictate what we can and cannot do so badly, on a national level. It's the John Birch Society writ large.

bigrun 01-05-2012 05:13 PM


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