BC Classic after 6 furlongs based on pace figures
 

Assuming everyone has an even start, is ridden with the normal riding tactics, and runs their average type of race -- this is how the field should be postitioned as they cross the half mile pole based on pace figures.


Game On Dude: (Joint leader)
Uncle Mo: (Joint leader)
To Honor And Serve: (3rd by 1.5 lengths)
Stay Thirsty: (4th by 2.75 lengths)
Havre De Grace: (5th by 3.5 lengths)
Flat Out: (6th by 4.5 lengths)
Rattlesnake Bridge: (7th by 7 lengths)
Ruler On Ice: (8th by 9.25 lengths)
Drosselmeyer: (9th by 10 lengths)
Prayer For Relief: (Joint 10th by 11 lengths)
Headache: (Joint 10th by 11 lengths)
Ice Box: (12th by 14 lengths)
So You Think: ????

How about at 10f?

I only bother with the pace calls.

However, at 10fs -- it's basically a two horse race between Flat Out and Havre De Grace with Uncle Mo the only true wildcard on the win end.

Am I wrong to think that at this distance, with this pace that Havre De Grace wont be in the triple? It feels like Flat Out or Mo to me.

I think Headache is the one horse who has run a lot of races that are better than looked on paper.

I just can't imagine how he's going to pass 10 horses and make up 10 or so lengths on the final four furlongs... but he won't be stopping.

Flat Out is the only horse I think you can trust in regard to a top 3 finish.

These projections seem unrealistic.

Why?

I think THAS, FO and HDG will likely be further back then those projections indicate.

Probably ST as well.

Maybe I'll feel differently once the PPs are released.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup was a much faster paced race than a lot of people think. For 10fs at Belmont -- they were cooking.

I know Vol Jack and some other people thought that was a speed biased track -- maybe it was or maybe it wasn't -- but in a couple later races it impacted the way jocks rode their horses.

Same thing with Havre De Grace's Beldame that day -- Life At Ten was on a suicide mission and Royal Delta was moved insanely pre-mature. Havre De Grace -- as a result -- ran dragged into running faster than she prefers.

If things go the way they should, Mo won't hit the board. He is a nice horse, but stretching out, against cut backs normally fall short. A good bet against here. ML fav is a joke.

You don't think Uncle Mo will be the favorite? I do because I think the public will make him it. Do I think he deserves to be the favorite? I don't but that is not what the line makers job is.

i like flat out, havre de grace and headache for a box tri.
uncle mo will be the fave, but i don't agree with it...nor do i see a reason to use him.

It was a merry go round track all day.

I would have booked any bet on Trappe Shot that day. He had no shot on that track.
I also bet my guts out on Force Freeze, thinking he would get the lead.
Cornhole on Giant Ryan was hellbent on getting the lead and Paco Lopez on FF was happy enough to sit in 2nd.
They ran that way around the track.

Can you do the Dirt Mile an Sprint? Pretty Please?:{>:

are people here off of mo because of rock tard hen?

Go back before I came around, people have been hating. Even last year, you know that. Silly question.

yeah, i know, but haven't these people seen his last two starts?

have people not seen this field?

it almost has to be you dude.

If he is right he is easy. All this talk about the Havre de Grace is silly. Its Mo or Flat Out. Check out HDG pp's. She runs the same solid race every time. All the sudden she jumps up in the Woodward. Feels like that number is a bit high to make Flat Outs second place finish fit. Her 10f race against Blind Luck was not her best, so why is she so strong against Mo and Flat Out. She is a total toss for me on the win end. Mo is the only horse that's brilliant, and hopefully he is doing well enough to show it.

the only chink in his armor that i can possibly see is conditioning, but he is training spectacularly.

This is like Stately Victor all over again. Do you have a man-crush on Maker?

I'm not off Mo entirely, if he was in the mile I would be all over him. I just don't like the idea of him stretching out at such a short price.

He also trained Further Land now that you mention it.

I read on Twitter according to those clocking works, that he was crossfiring either Sunday or yesterday, and never came out of the barn this morning -

@bradblanks Mo worked subpar, looked off behind & hasn't been back to gallop since


My money is on scratching

RockTardHen strikes again.

I hope to God it's nothing, or just bad scoop - I'd love to see him silence his critics once and for all.... hopefully Steve can validate

I like his longshots on synthetic better than other surfaces.

I doubt it's a bad scoop.

I believe in the great power that RockTardHen wields.

i am off him because of the race length, which is ground he has never run before. and with the odds....no thanks.

Great Avatar! My write-in candidate was the ice-cream crapping Taco.
Oh, and this is bad news for 'Mo...

Prayer for Relief to be scratched from Classic. A case of the "One Hole Flu"?

He was hopeless anyway IMO.

I agree on Prayer for Relief, but the scratch now puts Flat Out, who I had thought was the most likely winner, into the one hole.

I don't think that matters for him. . . unless the rail's dead, but I think it's more likely to be good than dead.

Impossible to know how the track's going to play, but I would have liked to see him about 6-7 lengths off the lead, which is where pace projections from beginning of this thread would have put him. If he gets shuffled early, he could be farther back in a hot-paced affair. Not sure whether that's good or not.

http://www.drf.com/news/uncle-mo-get...rs-cup-classic


Pletcher says he is perfect.

Would you expect him to say anything different?

if THAS is 8 or above. i will make a large ( for me anyway ) win wager.

@DeJulio - Hit the gate and then whisked off to the barn like he is in the witness protection program - did not come out Tuesday but 'he's perfect'

Exactly what the BC needs is another week long Repole fest.

I don't say this often but he needs to run so I can bet against him.

I'm telling you, it's the whole RockTardHen curse. Hit the freaking gate!